Contributor: Ben Kohn
In a battle between two top-5 welterweights that could decide who the next contender for the belt is, Rory MacDonald, MMA prodigy and metrosexual Dexter-wannabe, will collide with the immovable brick shithouse, Jake Ellenberger. Both of these men have left a trail of bodies in their wakes and now are looking to finally get their chances to fight for UFC gold (except if GSP wins than Rory won’t fight him but he still wants a UFC belt so like, OMG, drama bitches).
Rory is a serious prospect with real potential to become a longtime titleholder at Welterweight, or possibly Middleweight if he becomes too big to make the weight cut. At the young age of 24, he has been training since he was just 14 years old and already is dominating virtually every fighter he has faced (even the one time he lost to Condit, he put up one hell of a fight). He can strike, he can grapple, he has power, he has cardio, he has damn near everything a top prospect should have except one, a win over a top Welterweight and that is where Jake Ellenberger comes in.
Jake was a man on the cusp of a title shot and then it all came crashing down around him in the form of a Martin Kampmann knee. Jake had been knocked out for the first time in his career and is now looking to regain his foothold as the number 1 contender. Jake is an absolute powerhouse, both in his striking and his grappling game. He uses his incredible strength to drag his opponents to the ground when necessary, and sometimes unnecessarily (see Kampmann fight). However, “the Juggernaut” is known for the absolutely earth-shattering power in his hands and for good reason. Jake has won by knock out in 18 of his 29 total wins and 6 of his 8 UFC wins have been by knock out. The big issue that Jake has always had is his cardio. Jake is incredibly dangerous in the early goings of the fight but as the fight drags on, he noticeably slows down such as in his fight with Diego Sanchez. Jake is one hell of a fighter but fixing his gas tank has been something that has yet to really be shown. This fight and all these factors will play a huge roll in what goes down Saturday night.
The improvement Rory has shown in his standup has been remarkable. In his last fight against BJ Penn, Rory showed an incredibly diverse arsenal of standing elbows, knees, front kicks, and various combinations of punches, a solid jab and sound defense. He also was able to take down and grind away at Penn on the fence wearing Penn out. What impressed me the most 
about him though was how intelligently he fought against Penn. He immediately started attacking the body of Penn, who is notorious for having bad cardio, which shows me that despite all his physical talent, Rory is a cerebral fighter which is scary as hell. He has all the tools to beat the hell out of you and thinking about the best way to go about it at the same time! Rory can and will beat most Welterweights on the feet. The big issue with Rory though was his defense. A gassed and undersized BJ was able to land a counter right hand over the jab throughout the fight. In fact, that was virtually the only thing BJ was able to land on Rory at all. Against someone like Jake, whose power is just sickening, allowing a counter right hand to land is just asking to get knocked out. Rory has shown massive improvements in every fight on the feet so maybe he has tightened up the defensive holes but if he hasn’t, he could wake up asking what happened.
Jake Ellenberger is one hell of a fighter. He has very good wrestling to keep grapplers standing, and can take the fight to the ground if need be. Throw in that he has more power than some Light Heavyweights and you got yourself a top 5 Welterweight who can one day be a champion. Jake has very tight and crisp boxing, focusing more on power punches than jabbing or feints. In his last fight with Nate Marquardt, he demonstrated his affinity for counter-punching, waiting for Nate to move in before exploding with right and left hooks. One thing that Jake showed that I was impressed by was his ability to cut off the cage. The 
finishing sequence of his brutal knockout of Nate begin after he completely cornered Nate before unloading with a right hook to the body and slamming a left hook to the head followed by another right hook which just put him down hard. Jake is just someone you really can’t get hit by unless you want to have a nice nap on the canvas. The issue with Jake though was his willingness to take Marquadrts leg kicks for almost the entire fight up until the finish. Against a diverse and intelligent fighter such as Rory, who has incredible training up at Tri-Star, it would be a very risky strategy to allow Rory to just attack at range waiting for an opening. One thing that will be interesting for me in the striking game will be how Jake manages the distance. Rory will have a 3 inch height and 3 and half inch reach advantage over Jake. While not overwhelming, it does give Rory the option to employ a length oriented gameplan, staying away from Jake’s power and dragging him into the late rounds. This would be the best and smartest way to fight against Jake, forcing him to rush in and expend energy he most likely doesn’t have. Because of this, I feel the edge in the standup will go to Rory.
The ground game is something that is a bit tricky to me. The little we have seen of Jake on his back has been nothing to write home about. Rory however was finished on his back by Carlos Condit. Neither one of these guys have shown an impressive guard game so taking this fight to the ground should be an intriguing option for both fighters should they be losing the standup battle. On top, Jake is content to ride out with some ground and pound, doesn’t expend much energy trying to pass the guard, and will generally not put his opponent in any significant danger (see Kampmann fight, why the hell did he take him down?!?!). Rory on the other hand is a monster on top, actively trying to pass the guard and slamming ferocious ground and pound the entire time. While not a sub guy, you almost wish he was just so he will stop hitting you in the face. Remember what he did to Che “the killer” Mills? I don’t really want to because I have a few still images of his face and god damn it’s scary.
While Jake is a very good wrestler, he will generally use it to stay on the feet and bomb away at his opponent. Rory on the other hand blends his takedowns into his striking when he feels threatened and has achieved excellent results with it. In the clinch though, Jake will most likely be able to bully Rory, despite his larger frame. BJ Penn was able to partially control and even take down Rory momentarily. While Penn has very good wrestling, Jake’s is better and he is way stronger. Also in the clinch, Jake’s shorter arms will allow him to dirty box Rory more easily than Rory can. Overall though, Rory should have the edge in the grappling facets of the fight as well.
Cardio will be a factor if this goes past the first round. If Rory can frustrate Jake into charging forward over and over, using more and more of his already limited gas tank, he can pick him apart and win this fight. The thing is, Jake is pretty good at ending the fight early and Rory will need to be defensively sound and very cautious those first 5 minutes. The fact that BJ was able to land the counter right all fight really makes me wary of picking Rory because Jake is incredibly explosive and his fists are like cinderblocks. Despite all the “ifs” of this fight, I am going to pick Rory by Unanimous Decision.
-Ben can be reached at [email protected] or @agentbenten.
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