Contributor: Benjamin Kohn
Normally I would break down the main event of every UFC card. However, I personally feel that it would be a pretty big waste of a breakdown to write on how Jon Jones will beat undeserving challenger Chael Sonnen. Chael has a very slim chance of winning and I think that I would rather break down the fight between two Middleweights who have their last chances to make one more title run.
Michael “The Count” Bisping has been a UFC mainstay since winning TUF 3 way back in June 2006. Since then, he has fought 18 times in the UFC, going 13-5 overall and 9-4 at Middleweight. He has been on the cusp of a title shot multiple times, always falling just short of contendership. Bisping is now 34 years old and this fight is really has last real shot at making another UFC title run.
Alan “The Talent” Belcher made his UFC debut one month after Bisping did against perennial top contender Yushin Okami. Since then, Alan has had 14 UFC fights going 9-5 in those fights. Belcher is a complete enigma when it comes to contendership. Every time he seems to be about to step up to the next level, he seems to find a way to lose. He shows flashes of brilliance at times and then completely fails to impress at others. Although he is only 28 years old, this fight is a pivotal point in his career. Should he lose this fight, he may be doomed to be regarding as a mid-level gatekeeper for the foreseeable future.
Now I can spend time talking about their stupid trash talking but let’s face it, Bisping trash talks everyone and Belcher claims that it’s personal. Same old crap as usual eh UFC hype machine? From the dumb tattoo bet, the offering a Bentley if he gets KO’d, the trash talk was almost unbearably fake and not fun at all. So I will stick to the actual breakdown of the fight.
This fight is going to come down to whoever controls the standup, period. Bisping’s TDD is too good for Belcher to get him down and Belcher is a better overall submission grappler anyway so Bisping will most likely not shoot, especially since he is so confident in his boxing anyway. Neither fighter is especially good in the clinch as both have more rangy styles of striking anyway and while Belcher has better clinch striking, Bisping can outwrestle him in the clinch. I will not be breaking down the grappling or wrestling or clinch in this fight like I normally do but rather use a checklist. Now to break down the striking matchup.
Both fighters are coming off a loss, Bisping to Vitor Belfort by TKO and Belcher to Yushin Okami by UD. Against Vitor, Bisping’s flaws were exposed as Vitor continually used his left straight to get Bisping to duck into his high kick and landed a perfect shot to his dome. Now the other flaw of Bisping is that he extends his arms when to block incoming strikes and his chin is straight up in the air. This obviously can end in extremely bad ways for him and has (I highly recommend reading articles by Jack Slack breaking down various fights as I have learned much from him, especially in regards to Bisping’s striking).
In Belcher’s last outing, he made a big error which consistently screwed him over in the fight. He threw single kicks without any punches to set them up. This allowed Okami to engage Belcher in the clinch with no fear of walking into punches, at least until later in the fight. Belcher has powerful kicks but tends to throw them singly without setups and that is not going to cut it against top level Middleweights, especially wrestlers.
Now the key thing to note is that the man they are fighting now poses very different problems than either of their most recent high level opponents. Bisping throws straight punches right down the pipe and is a cardio machine with excellent TDD and good offensive wrestling as well. He has also never been submitted in his career and has faced some very good ground specialists who challenged him there. He moves around a lot and has earned the moniker of pillow-fisted because he tends to hit without much power. This is exaggerated though as Bisping has shown he can generate power when he wants to sit down on his punches. The issue is that he doesn’t because he moves around so much. Bisping has also always had issues with circling into his opponents power hand (see fight with Dan Henderson). He also has what many consider a questionable chin which I personally think is a bit exaggerated. He does not throw very many kicks either which allows his opponent’s to focus only on defending the hands. Belcher on the other hand is the slower of the two fighters but definitely holds the power advantage in this bout. Belcher loves to throw kicks and he definitely throws them hard. He has a good chin and mediocre cardio. His submission grappling game looked outstanding in his fight with Rousimar Palhares as he played the leg lock game with the master and came out of it unscathed. His wrestling though is nothing to write home about and his grappling did not look good against Yushin Okami, but who really does grappling with Yushin? Anyway Belcher definitely started getting the better of Okami when he started throwing his right straight as he floored Okami with it twice during their fight. Now this sounds like something that would be the perfect plan to exploit against Bisping except for one problem. Belcher and Bisping are both orthodox fighters.
Now let me give you a quick rundown of what Open Guard and Closed Guard are in striking. Open Guard is when a southpaw fights an orthodox fighter, like Belfort vs. Bisping and Okami vs. Belcher. In these stances, fighters with good rear straights and rear leg high kicks can use them to get the other fighter to react to a faked straight left (see Belfort vs. Bisping) and have them duck into a left high kick. Mirko Cro Cop made a career off of the left straight, left high kick combo. However in Closed Guard, the
fighters are both much closer to each other naturally and have fewer openings than Open Guard and why things like jabbing and throwing combos and feints are so important. You have to get your opponent to react in order to open him up. (Again credit goes to Jack Slack for his excellent book and articles on Open vs. Closed Guard).
Bisping’s quick, straight punches in bunches and constant movement will go up against Belcher’s more plodding style of single power strikes and to be honest, I have to give the edge to Bisping in the striking department.
Fight IQ: This is something that does need to be mentioned specifically in relation to Alan Belcher. Alan is not a very smart fighter in the cage. As good as his sub defense looked against Palhares, engaging in a prolonged leg lock battle, even though he won, was not a smart thing to do. It was dangerous and could have gotten him submitted. He should have disengaged as soon as he could have. In his fight with Okami, he was allowing him to get inside and clinch with him. For some reason, Belcher dropped for multiple guillotines on a man known for his incredibly stifling top game and someone who has never been submitted in his 36 fight career. He does not seem to fight smart and places himself in bad situations. He is usually content to fight the other man’s game and this is why I personally believe he will never make it to the top of the division. You have to impose your game on your opponent if you want to be at the top. This is why I think he will lose this fight. He will play into Bisping’s game and chase him around the ring rather. What he needs to do is force Bisping to move into his power hand. Dan Henderson is much slower than Belcher yet I don’t see Belcher doing that well.
Wrestling- Bisping
Clinch- Even
Submission Grappling- Belcher
Bottom line for this fight, I will say Michael Bisping by Unanimous Decision.
-Ben can be reached @agentbenten or [email protected].
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
