Contributor: Ben Kohn
In a rematch of a fight that took place seven years ago in a Pride ring Vitor Belfort, who has had a career resurgence since getting KO’d by Silva, will once again face off against the victor of the first fight Dan Henderson, who is on a 2 fight losing streak and is looking to re-establish himself as one of MMA’s elite with a second victory over Belfort. Both of these men would seemingly be at the tail ends of their careers, with 33 years of MMA experience between them, but have not only evaded fading, they have been able to consistently hang with and beat guys impressively. Belfort has been on a tear since losing to Silva knocking out Yoshihiro Akiyama, Michael Bisping, and Luke Rockhold while submitting Anthony Johnson by RNC, all in the first round. The only hiccup along the way was a fourth round submission loss to Jon Jones in which Belfort nearly dethroned the champion with an armbar in the first round. Henderson on the other hand is coming off of 2 split decision losses to Rashad Evans and Lyoto Machida. Before that, Hendo was on a 4 fight win streak defeating Renato Sobral, Rafael Cavalcante, and Fedor all by KO with the epic 5 round war against Shogun Rua which he won by unanimous decision. Despite his old age, 42, Hendo has been able to hang with the best but he needs to get a win because this is the last fight on his contract. Can Hendo stop the momentum of the surging Belfort or will Vitor be able to avenge his loss?
Both of these men are known for their devastating power although they use it in very different ways. Hendo is known for his brutally destructive right hand known as the H-bomb which his entire game is focused around landing. Belfort’s infamous flurries have given rise to a more tempered and measured approach that has diversified into using both hands and feet to knock out his opponents making him more dangerous than ever. Of course, none of this would most likely have happened without the help of the totally legal use of steroids….I mean TRT, which they, of course, need to survive. But let’s not focus on that and talk about their skillsets and the applications of said skillsets.
The striking is obviously going to play the key part in this fight. Both of these men want to stand with their opponents and unleash their powerful blows on their opponent’s noggins. The way they go about it is going to make this fight really interesting. The current version of Vitor is very patient and calculating, using rangy kicks to gauge the distance, waiting for his opponents to make mistakes allowing him to counter them with hard strikes to the dome. My favorite striking performance of 
his recent fights was against Michael Bisping. His use of his left straight to get Bisping to duck into the head kick was beautiful as it took advantage of Bisping’s tendency to stretch his arms out in front of him in defense of incoming strikes. It was a flawlessly executed gameplan that was executed to a tee. This evolving form of Vitor makes him increasingly dangerous to his opponents and he is a much more diverse striker than he was back in Pride.
Henderson is exactly the opposite of Vitor as he really hasn’t evolved much at all in recent years. In fact, he has managed to succeed (barring his last two fights) on relatively few weapons overall. Those weapons however are so lethal; it allows him to keep up with the top fighters in his division. The lead left leg kick and the big right hand are pretty much the main tools in Hendo’s arsenal and he uses them very well. Very simply, Hendo keeps the right hand cocked and ready to fire, from a very side on stance. He will use his left leg kick to force his opponent to stop circling to his left and keep them right on track for the H-bomb to slam into them. This simple plan has worked multiple times in his career and its simplicity only makes it all the more impressive when he lands it.
So now the question is, how do these two match up in their styles? Vitor’s more calculated approach will actually play out pretty well in the rematch I’d say. Hendo’s stance makes him an easy target for leg kicks because he stands so sideways. It also weakens his left jab and lead hook because it is much harder for him to get any momentum or twist into the punch. Vitor is also a southpaw and the lead leg kick Hendo favors is of the inside variety which is way more efficient at stopping someone in their tracks than a kick to the outside. This leaves Hendo only one weapon to land while Vitor’s new skills will allow him to pick at Hendo from range until he feels like he can finally move in for the bigger shots. Free range striking would go to Vitor but we aren’t done yet. Clinch/cage striking and finishing strikes still need to be discussed.
Vitor is still able to unleash the Belfort flurry if the opportunity presents itself and those are no joke. Vitor is unrivaled in the speed and ferocity with which he throws his bombs, most of which will land because of his accuracy. If Vitor has you hurt, it’s pretty much over and that can be seen in his fights with Bisping, Rockhold, Akiyama, and for old timey sake, Marvin Eastman. Hendo’s finishing instinct is almost as ferocious and just as violent as Vitor’s though. Hendo will mercilessly ground and pound his opponent after hurting them, sometimes after knowing they are already out cold a la Michael Bisping. While not as powerful or fast as Vitor’s finishing strikes, they still pack a wallop and are not to be trifled with.
Finally, striking against the cage and in the clinch to determine who is going to have the striking edge. The clinch and cage is where the Vitor of 2006 truly excelled. In his fight with Ortiz, clinching against the fence is where he had the best success in the fight despite losing the actual fight. Vitor is very good at gauging the distance against the cage in the clinch and will usually punch his opponent from closer than punching range but still too much space to clinch which confused Ortiz and actually had Ortiz try and do both at the same time. This effective “technical brawling” is something Vitor excels at and could still be a key weapon at play. Hendo is very different in his clinching and cage striking approach. If his opponents back is to the cage and he has space, Hendo will rip punches from all angles trying to get through his opponents guard. While clinched up, Hendo doesn’t 
have space to land any really hard shots and will usually grind away in the clinch to either break free and strike or look for a trip or throw. While this is normally effective, Hendo’s extensive wrestling background surprisingly does not translate well to MMA and he is relatively easy to take down compared to other less decorated wrestlers. That however is for another paragraph in another section my children. Let us discuss who has the edge in striking.
Vitor’s newfound kicking attacks more measured and varied approach, and the fact that he is also a southpaw all point to the striking edge falling in favor to him. Hendo’s limited attack overall has always struggled against more diverse and faster strikers such as Machida. While Hendo does usually find a home for his right hand, he has also slowed down tremendously since they first fought while Vitor is just as fast as he was for the most part. Overall, the more varied attack of TRTot…I mean Vitor will carry the day in the striking exchanges. Edge in striking goes to Vitor.
The grappling is something that can play out in interesting ways. The wrestling advantage definitely goes to Hendo despite what I mentioned before. While Vitor is a competent wrestler, he is nothing special and not very diverse in his application of his wrestling sticking to double and single legs for the most part. Hendo on the other hand can take down his opponents from the clinch and through shoot takedowns. However, despite Hendo’s offensive wrestling advantage in diversity, Vitor’s takedown percentage is higher than Hendo’s at 60% to Hendo’s 56% and his defense is not much worse than Hendo’s at 51% to 60% respectively. The actual submission grappling advantage definitely goes to the Carlson Gracie blackbelt that rarely uses his submission skills that are actually quite potent. Vitor can submit guys from the top and off of his back should the need arise although he prefers to use his grappling only when necessary as he will generally have an advantage standing up. Hendo does not really have much of a submission arsenal and will generally grapple with intention to punch his opponents in the face or grind away from top control. While Hendo has shown that he can be caught with a submission, it’s been a very long while since then and he is not easy to submit at all. The grappling is just something that may come into play if the fight goes into the later rounds as both of these men have shown a tendency to tire in the later rounds. Overall, I would give a grappling advantage to Hendo just based off of the fact that he has performed adequately against better grapplers than Vitor has in the past but it is 
not by much and I wouldn’t be surprised if he got caught by an armbar in the guard. Slight edge in grappling goes to Henderson.
Some x-factors definitely need to be addressed before making a final conclusion on how this fight will turn out. The obvious ones are cardio and Hendo’s chin vs Vitor’s chin. Cardio is something Hendo has never displayed much of but as he has gotten older, it has become more of an issue for sure. Hendo’s best rounds are the 1st and 2nd and then he very clearly starts to fade in the 3rd. Vitor hasn’t been out of the first round in a very long time except for when he fought Jon Jones. Surprisingly, his cardio more than held up despite getting dominated for the most part and that bodes well for him. If he can outlast Hendo in a drawn out fight, a tired Hendo could be easy pickings for Vitor. The question is if he can put Hendo out and that’s a big if. Hendo’s chin has become something of legend at this point and one has to wonder if he can be knocked out by Vitor. We know Hendo can put Vitor down because of his power and although Vitor is not glass chinned, he is not known for having an iron one either. This is going to be interesting because if Vitor hurts Hendo and can’t finish him, Vitor may get very discouraged which is a concern. Vitor has displayed what some would say is a mental weakness when things don’t go his way. While he seems to have worked past that (I look at the Jones fight for that) it may still be a concern.
This fight is really intriguing as Vitor will not have to cut down to Middleweight which will only help out his cardio and he can focus solely on training. His more diverse standup and competent grappling ability will allow him to be comfortable to start with as long as he can avoid Hendo’s vaunted right hand. Hendo must somehow find a way to corner Vitor and unload with heavy punches to get Vitor covering up. If he can do that, he can catch Vitor early and put him out. This is one that it’s hard to pick but I have made my choice and will stand by it. I think Vitor will be able to drag Hendo into the later rounds, tiring him out before going in for the kill. With that my final and spot on prediction is this.
Final Prediction: Vitor Belfort by TKO Round 4
-Ben can be reached at [email protected] or @agentbenten.
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