Contributor: Ben Kohn
In the main event of The Ultimate Fighter Season 18 Finale, we will have a rematch of an instant classi….well not really. Maynard/Diaz 2 will be a rematch of a fight that was a rematch of an exhibition fight that happened on TUF so it technically is the trilogy fight but it isn’t because TUF fights don’t count…alright so moving on from that little clusterfuck, Maynard/Diaz 2 is a fight that has been made to decide where these two former top contenders stand in the division. Both are desperately trying to remain relevant in one of the toughest, if not the toughest, divisions in the UFC. Both are coming off of two straight losses. Maynard to then champion Frankie Edgar by KO and sort of current #1 contender TJ Grant by KO. Diaz is coming off of a five round shellacking to then champion Benson Henderson and a KO loss to also sort of #1 contender Josh Thomson. Both men sorely need a win to get back on track as Maynard is 34 and needs to turn things around while Diaz has been making life very difficult for himself through the use of twitter comments that have gotten him in some trouble with the head honchos of the UFC. Another loss, especially a bad one, could lead to his release from the organization. Let’s take a look at how these two actually stack up and who will remain relevant and the evolving Lightweight division.
As these two are extremely well known fighters and their styles are also as well known, I will spend a bit less time breaking down what they can and can’t do than usual. Gray Maynard is a 3 time NCAA D1 All-American wrestler and has fought for the Lightweight title twice. For most of his career, Maynard was primarily a wrestler but has shown great improvement in his standup, specifically his boxing, in recent fights. His nickname “the Bully” personifies his style as he is an absolute bruiser of a fighter. His wrestling is powerful and his boxing consists of powerful hooks and uppercuts almost exclusively aimed at his opponents head. He has also shown of an incredible amount of power in his fights with Edgar where he basically murdered him in the cage twice and put on one of the most epic 1 round beatdowns of any fighter in UFC history in the second Edgar fight. Beyond that, Maynard does suffer from some big issues that hamper his game. Maynard tends to go wild for the finish when he hurts his opponents and will punch himself out in order to get it. Combine this with him being one of the largest Lightweights in the division and his cardio is always in issue. The other issue is that he has been finished by strikes in both of his losses and that has people pointing out that he can’t take as much punishment as he can dish out. While I think this is overblown (he took so many hard shots from Grant and keeps pushing forward) it is an issue as Diaz has a style that can really mess with someone who is not great at taking punches to the face. Coupled together with his cardio issues and Diaz’s body punches can really slow him down.
Diaz is pretty much going to attempt to do what he always does. He will attempt to stalk forward, with his weight over his lead leg which is pointed inwards and try to overwhelm Maynard with a relentless barrage of punches to the head and body and the
occasional Stockton slap. Maynard fought the entire previous fight with Diaz on the feet and was still able to take a split decision and the version of Maynard on the feet now is way better at striking than the version Diaz previously fought. Diaz’s boxing attack is usually thwarted by a stick and move style such as Condit or Tompson’s gameplans but Maynard will not play that game as he isn’t nearly as mobile as those two. However, he does have some serious power in his hands and with the legendary Diaz chin being cracked by Tompson, who has less power than Maynard; we could see Maynard put Diaz out. Overall, the striking off this fight is kind of weird as Maynard has improved but Diaz’s style usually stifles big power punchers. I think the striking advantage goes to Maynard though and think he can hurt Diaz badly on the feet. Edge in Striking goes to Maynard.
The grappling aspect of this fight is clear to me. Maynard obviously has a massive wrestling and strength advantage while Diaz has the clear submission grappling advantage. Maynard will avoid getting entangled in Diaz’s guard as long as he can as that didn’t work out too well for him on TUF 5 when Nate submitted him. Interestingly enough, Nate actually attempted 3 takedowns in his previous fight with Maynard (and was stuffed all 3 times). Maynard, while not having a high takedown percentage, can take down almost anyone at Lightweight and Diaz is not among the best wrestlers to prevent that. Should the fight hit the floor though, Diaz’s grappling is almost as dangerous as his brothers and he could cause some issues for Gray from his guard. That being said, Gray will completely outgrapple Diaz in the clinch area and because of that, I am giving the edge in 
grappling overall to Maynard. Edge in grappling goes to Maynard.
There are the obvious factors that may come into play here and the big one is cardio. Maynard can get tired when he either pushes hard or is pushed hard. Diaz is just not going to tire. It doesn’t happen, ever. The other factor that may come into play is the fact that Maynard is has only completed 4 of his last 28 takedown attempts which would suggest his wrestling skills may be eroding. Than we look at who he fought and Guida and Edgar are not easy guys to get down. Diaz on the other hand has very bad defense and can be taken down pretty easily. Maynard should have no real issues getting him down.
Overall, I am really having a tough time getting too invested in this fight. I like Maynard, I dislike Diaz, and I know both of them need this win badly. But this fight is just so….meh. Although Maynard has all the tools to once again beat Diaz, we just have no idea how much he really has left at 34 years old. The same goes for Diaz who has been a pro fighter for 10 years and has been in some insane wars. Bottom line, Maynard has the advantage in the skills department and I will choose him to beat Diaz barring any complete erosion on both of their parts.
Final Prediction: Gray Maynard by KO Round 2
-Ben can be reached at [email protected] or @agentbenten.
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