This is the second of three Jason Kipnis centered Best of Burning River Baseball articles to come out on 7/13/15. It features an article written by Joseph Coblitz from April of 2013. The original article is repeated in its entirety below, in black italics, with new commentary from Kevin Gall in red.
Going into the season, Jason Kipnis was expected to be one of the most important players in the Indians’ offense, a table setter, integral to the success of the entire lineup. He earned the job as the number three hitter after a fantastic 2012 season that saw him bat .257/.335/.379 in his first full Major League season. In general, it was expected that with another year of seasoning and playing in an improved offense those numbers would improve as he started to hit his expected potential. Instead, over the first week of the season he has struggled with a line of .138/.161/.251.
He has played in 7 of the Indians first 8 games and was batting third until the last game against New York, when he switched places with Asdrubal Cabrera and batted second. Kip would remain in the second spot in the lineup till June 16th when he was moved back to the 3rd spot, where he’d remain for the rest of the season. It is hard to pinpoint exactly where his problem is stemming from. He doesn’t seem to be swinging at bad pitches, but he has walked just once in the first week and struck out ten times. After this article was published, Kipnis drew a walk in the next 3 games. He finished the season with 76 walks, which tied him for 12th in all of baseball. Unfortunately, strikeouts remained a big part of his game as well. Kipping struck out 143 times in 2013, 21st most in baseball. When he has made contact, he has shown some power. Three of his four hits are doubles, two of which were deep to the outfield and he has flown out near the wall on multiple occasions, robbed by some good defensive plays. 51 of Kip’s 160 hits in 2013 went for extra bases, 36 doubles, 4 triples, and 17 home runs. He also finished the season with a .452 slugging percentage, the 4th highest number by a second baseman behind Robinson Cano, Matt Carpenter, and Chase Utley.
It’s possible his struggles have been mostly to do with bad luck like that. His BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) is a paltry .200 (compared to a career rate of .292), despite keeping a line drive rate around 20%, the same as his career before this year. He also has a perfect Ground Ball/Fly Ball ratio of 1.00, meaning he hasn’t changed his batting style thinking he was a power hitter and flying out to the outfield constantly. He also has grounded out into just a single double play, so he hasn’t been costing the Indians a lot of extra outs on his ground balls.
All things considered, there doesn’t seem to be much to worry about with Kipnis. His defense has been stellar to this point and he is one of the few infielders to avoid the error bug to this point. His all important line drive rate is staying consistent. He has likely just been unlucky, hitting the ball right at people, something that will certainly even out in time. The low BABIP was likely the biggest factor in Kip’s slow start, he would finished the season with a BABIP of .345. With a BABIP that high you might expect a higher batting average for the year, but the high strikeout numbers likely curtailed that. His three doubles (second on the team) are proof that his power is still there. Kipnis did change his swing a little in the off-season, but he is still hitting the ball at the same ratios as past seasons. He will likely turn things around shortly as long as he continues to play the same way he is now. The worst thing he could do now is to press and allow his struggles with the bat to effect his glove, or to start swinging at pitches outside the strike zone because he isn’t hitting safely with what he’s swinging at right now. April did not end well for Jason, he had a slash line of .200/.269/.286 with 3 doubles, 1 home run, and 5 stolen bases. By the end of May his slash line improved to .238/.307/.448 adding 4 more home runs and 9 stolen bases. By June, Kipnis was on fire. In 27 games in the month of June he slashed .419/.517/.699, 4 HR, 25 RBI, winning Player of the Month honors. He is a young player and slumps are magnified at the beginning of the season. An athletic, scrappy player like Jason Kipnis will always end up succeeding in the long run.
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