Beyond the Stars – Analyzing the Second Tier of 2015 Lottery Picks

NBA Global Games Rio 2015 - Orlando Magic v Flamengo

The top three votes for Rookie of the Year are a virtual lock, but how are the rest of the lottery rookies faring?

Kristaps Porzingis has awed the crowds at Madison Square Garden with his scintillating blocks. Perhaps his biggest rejection of the season came on Saturday, when he kindly took the time to respond to a fan’s request to attend their prom. Karl-Anthony Towns, or Big KAT as he shall henceforth be known, has been absolutely dominating the league since arriving last June, not only in games but in the 2016 All-Star Skills Challenge, which is just insane considering it’s been a historically point guard-only event. Jahlil Okafor has been all over the map, from playing like a Rookie of the Year to his Fast and the Furious moment to being discussed in trade talks (and remember, he was picked number 3 overall in last year’s draft).

But what about the other lottery picks? There’s a lot of talent in this year’s class. D’Angelo Russell has mostly disappointed due to the system and lack of playing time, Willie Cauley-Stein is as defensive as advertised, and Emmanuel Mudiay looks like a star in the making at the point if he can find his shot. So how are the other top-tier picks doing?

Mario Hezonja

He has great range. He makes athletic plays. He jumps on mushrooms and turtles. Okay, so maybe I’m getting my Super Marios mixed up, but there’s little that scouts think Mario Hezonja couldn’t do with the right development, which the Magic are intent on providing. Magic Head Coach Scott Skiles has insisted upon not giving Mario “entitlement minutes”, something demonstrated by the fact that Hezonja’s first career start came just Sunday night against the 76ers. And because of this close watch on his development, he has yet to register the kind of impact that Magic fans so desired when seeing him selected fifth in the draft (and highly touted before and afterwards). Scoring just 5.3 points per game this year hasn’t thrust him into the spotlight just yet, but the gobs of potential speak for themselves. I doubt we’ll be having the same tone in a conversation about him this time next year.

Stanley Johnson

Johnson came into the draft profiled as one of the more athletic wings in this class, and he’s certainly provided a great option off the bench to bring energy and athleticism to the second team for Stan Van Gundy’s group. With a stat line of 9.0 points and 4.2 rebounds to go along with 1.6 assists, Johnson has been a valuable asset for a potential playoff team (currently 9th in the standings, but locked with with three other teams as of the morning of March 1st). Unfortunately for Johnson, Tobias Harris was just acquired at the trade deadline from the Magic, so his minutes most likely won’t increase anytime soon. Though he appears set to be a sixth man for the foreseeable future, his rookie season has certainly set the ceiling for him and the Pistons’ future.

Frank Kaminsky

Frank The Tank! Frank The Tank! Kaminsky has been in an interesting situation down in Charlotte. The Hornets have a plethora of bigs. They also have a plethora of three-point shooters. One more thing: they have an extreme plethora of goofy, tall, white guys (see Tyler Hansbrough, Spencer Hawes, and Cody Zeller). But in the injury-riddled lineups of the Hornets, he has found a home knocking down threes at a decent, albeit declining month-over-month, rate of 31.5 percent. If he can regain his stroke from deep and continue attacking the basket as he has shown in flashes, something at which he excelled in college, he can continue to gain favor and playing time as the Hornets fight for the playoffs. Also, with Al Jefferson on an expiring contract, Kaminsky could be looking at competing for the starting 5 spot this upcoming fall.

Justise Winslow

Boston tried to pay a king’s ransom for him. Charlotte was berated for passing over him (and those four first-round draft picks from Boston). He might be one of the top three players in this draft by the end of his career, but with Luol Deng in front of him in the rotation, he hasn’t had the chance to flourish as is expected of him. Although he hasn’t became a superstar just yet, he has shown a lot of potential so far. He’s averaging 7.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 1.4 steals per game in 31.7 minutes during February, exhibiting his defensive tendencies in an expanded role off the bench. His team-leading 56 games played has displayed something the Heat desperately need: durability, especially considering Bosh’s uncertain future and the age and durability of most of their starters being questionable at best.

Myles Turner

Turner is easily the best-performing rookie from this list so far. Having started 14 of the 37 games he’s played in so far, he’s been a huge lift offensively, scoring 13.9 points and grabbing 6.9 rebounds per game as a starter. He’s also added almost two blocks per game when starting, great numbers all around for most any player, let alone a rookie. With interior defense being a sort of question mark heading into the draft, it’s nice to see the 6’11” center out of Texas with a couple of rejections on the books each game. The biggest question going into the playoffs (potentially) will be if he can continue to stay healthy after a left thumb injury kept him out for most of the 2015 portion of the season. If so, Indiana has a very solid frontcourt option to pair with Paul George for the near future.

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