Beyond the stats: CJ’s dip in play

CJ Spiller has had a disappointing 2013 season after showing his ability to be one of the best playmakers in the NFL last season. The Bills’ running back first suffered a quadriceps injury in Week 3 against the Jets and then injured his ankle the following week against the Ravens. The ankle injury has severely limited Spiller’s ability to play and perform at a high level.

Last season, CJ Spiller gained ten or more yards on 21% of his touches and lost yardage just 9% of the time. This season, his touches that have gone for a loss increased to almost 14% and his plays for ten or more yards decreased to 9.7%. What’s most troubling is the extreme increase in the number of plays that Spiller has gained zero to two yards: 25% in 2012 and 41% in 2013. That’s a huge problem when the majority of his touches (57%) come on first down. The graph below compares the distribution of gains per touch from 2012 and 2013 so far.

Maybe Spiller’s high proportion of touches that went for more than five yards last season (40.3%) was unsustainable. There could be a bit of regression from an amazing season mixed in here, but a lot of Spiller’s troubles are related to his injured ankle. Since the Ravens game where he injured his ankle, Spiller has been stopped for zero to two yards 46% of the time. That’s eight percent more than before the ankle injury, and a mind blowing 21% more often than last season.

The Bills’ utilization of Spiller has changed dramatically since the injury as well. The Bills always intended to give their star running back the ball a lot, but now that he can’t participate in as many plays, he’s getting the ball more often when he’s on the field. His average plays per game decreased from 32.75 to 14.67 after the win over Baltimore. Meanwhile, his touches decreased by a smaller margin: 18.75 to 9.33. His plays per game and touches per week are illustrated below.

Spiller probably won’t play this weekend, and that’s fine. Keeping him inactive certainly doesn’t concede the game, as Fred Jackson has played well. He continues to be the same old Fred Bills fans have learned to love and hasn’t shown any decline from his injury-shortened 2012 season. The graph below compares Jackson’s 2012 and 2013 seasons, like Spiller’s were above. Note how similar they are, especially compared to Spiller’s graph.

Jackson’s been able to gain more than five yards on 31% of his touches this season. The Bills can afford to give Jackson the workload in New Orleans in the hopes that Spiller’s performance for the rest of the 2013 season is somewhere between his 2012 and current 2013 totals. Rest up, CJ.