Buffalo’s offense as a whole was bad in Tampa. We’ve heard it by now. EJ Manuel’s passer rating was the 59th worst by a rookie since 2000. (Jeff Tuel’s game against Kansas City was the 60th worst.) Manuel’s poor play may have been a product of the inept offense (he contributed to it too), but I don’t think he is a lost cause.
Since 2000, rookie quarterbacks have thrown four or more interceptions twenty times (including Manuel last week). Ten of those players failed to throw a touchdown. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the only rookie quarterback to throw five interceptions and no touchdowns (he ran one in though). Unsurprisingly, all twenty teams lost their games.
This season, quarterbacks with a minimum of ten pass attempts have finished a game with a passer rating of fifty or less 41 times (there have been 429 qualifying games so far). The lower quartile (bottom 25 percentile) of quarterback rating through the first fourteen weeks of this season is currently 68.5. Manuel has had three of those games so far.
The Bills have had a total of five quarterback games with a passer rating in the lower quartile of the season. Ten teams have had five or six quarterback performances of in that range. One team, the New York Jets, have had such a bad performance a league-leading eight times (Geno Smith has seven of those “games”).
Since 1990, just nine rookie quarterbacks have had a passer rating in this lower quartile (less than or equal to 68.5) more than Smith. The table below shows those players. Just two of them, Collins and Manning, ended up being good players.
Manuel’s three “bad” quarterback games are a bit disappointing, but that’s what you usually get with a rookie quarterback. His company at three bad games in a rookie season is Charlie Batch, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Max Hall, David Klinger, Colt McCoy, Keith Null, Patrick Ramsey, Ben Roethlisberger, John Skelton, Russell Wilson, and Scott Zolak. Again, this crowd only has a couple players that ended up (or are currently) good quarterbacks.
That’s the thing about it though. Getting a young quarterback is tough. If he’s good enough to start (or is forced into that position), it’s very rare he lasts.
Since 1970, 75 rookie quarterbacks have started at least eight games. Eleven of those players didn’t start in eight games in any of the next four seasons. Fifteen went on to be their team’s starter for the four seasons following their rookie year. 31 of the 75 (a shade over 41%) were a starter for at least three seasons and just 26 were the starter their rookie season and their fifth season. Basically, rookie quarterbacks have gone on to fail about 59% of the time.
But sitting the first year (at least) doesn’t necessarily help a player’s chances of becoming a franchise starter. 129 quarterbacks sat their rookie season (started fewer than eight games) and went on to be a primary starter (started at least eight games) in the first five years of his career. Just 51 of those players (39.5%) started both their fourth and fifth years. Seventeen didn’t become the starter until their third season. Another thirteen weren’t their team’s quarterback until their fourth year!!
Despite his terrible game, Manuel continues to be most statistically similar to Russell Wilson (who also had three “bad” games as rookie). However, the Tampa game caused David Carr to come back into the mix. Carr is now second in similarity (96.9%), but is closely followed by Andrew Luck.
In his first nine games, Wilson exceeded 200 yards passing just three times. Manuel has passed for more than 200 yards four times, but at a lower yard per attempt rate (6.3 compared to Wilson’s 7.0 through nine games).
Wilson and Manuel’s rushing is really what makes them so similar. Their average gain per attempt through nine games are almost identical (0.03 yards per attempt different). They’ve both been sacked a lot, but Manuel has managed to have the average yards lost per sack lower than Wilson. Also, they both have the same escape move when the pocket breaks down (and some don’t like it for various reasons).
We learn more about the player Manuel is (and could become) as he gets more playing time. He’s played a lot like Russell Wilson and hopefully he’ll progress into a player of that caliber. He’s also been similar to David Carr and I’m praying that’s just an aberration due to a few subpar games. Hopefully there aren’t any more of those.
Good players have bad games from time to time, but very few (fewer than the number of rookie quarterbacks that make it) can withstand more bad games than good as a rookie. The upcoming game at Jacksonville will be another important test for Manuel.
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