Scott Chandler has the second-most receptions and receiving yards on the Bills and is on pace to have the best season of his career. Short term memory, however, limits us to thinking the big tight end has bricks at the ends of his arms. In reality, Chandler is above average in terms of drops and catches.
Assuming this Sporting Charts data is correct, Scott Chandler has dropped just eight passes since 2011. The data used has Chandler responsible for three drops so far this season. Drops aren’t an official NFL statistic, so there’s a bit of a gray area here. We’ll just have to accept the assumption that the data is correct and scoring is consistent for all players.
If you combine his drops with his receptions over that period of time, you get the total catchable passes thrown his way. Those eight drops were just 6.6% of the catchable passes thrown his way, meaning he caught 93.4% of the catchable passes targeted for him.
The average for all tight ends with at least thirty receptions in the two and a half seasons is a 92.8% catch rate. During that time, Tony Gonzalez has caught 97% of the 224 catchable balls thrown his way. Witten, another highly targeted tight end has caught 96% of the catchable passes thrown to him. The distribution of catch rates and catchable passes for the 58 players from this sample is in the distribution below. Chandler, Gonzalez, Witten, and Jimmy Graham are all highlighted for reference.
Chandler has been an extremely reliable receiver for throws less than fifteen yards past the line of scrimmage. He has been targeted 44 times when fifteen or fewer yards downfield and has caught 31 of those passes (70.5%). As a result, he has been a great check down option for the young Buffalo quarterbacks when receivers downfield aren’t open or the pass rush disrupts the pocket. Chandler’s targets, broken down by pass depth are laid out in the table below.
At 6’7”, Scott Chandler is usually a head taller than the safety or linebacker asked to defend him. That makes him a great mid-range target like other huge tight ends popping up across the league. Chandler isn’t a converted basketball player, however. He doesn’t have the speed or amazing jumping ability players like Jimmy Graham or Jordan Cameron. Those players are more explosive big play threats while Chandler is more of a possession receiver.
Even though he’s a better medium depth target it’s still somewhat disappointing that Chandler has only caught one pass out of ten targets when more than fifteen yards downfield. Six of those passes were thrown by Thad Lewis or Jeff Tuel (and none of those were completed), so that could be a result of inaccurate passes from backup players.
Because he has such a size advantage, Chandler has become the Bills second favorite target on third downs. Stevie Johnson leads the Bills with third down targets (23), but Chandler’s 164 receiving yards on third down lead the team. The Bills have done very well targeting him 11-15 yards downfield, usually straight up the seam, on third down. Six of the seven targets have been completed for a total of 119 yards, three first downs, and touchdown.
Chandler’s drops last week were disappointing and untimely, but drops happen throughout a season. He’s an above average pass catcher who can be an easy target on short to intermediate passes, so he’ll continue to be a big part of the Buffalo passing attack.
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