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Jairus Byrd may or may not be a Bill next season, due to the fact that the Bills decided not to franchise tag the safety for a second consecutive season. If Byrd moves on to another team, Buffalo will lose a talented player. But how much would it set them back?
The 2013 season is interesting when analyzing Byrd’s impact on the team because there is an almost even number of plays where Byrd was a participant and where he wasn’t. Maybe determining his impact is as easy as comparing the average yards allowed with Byrd and without him. After annotating every defensive play from last season, I determined the average yards allowed per play, with and without Buffalo’s star safety.
The impact Byrd had when on the field is obvious by this comparison. A primary issue with this comparison is that it isn’t opponent-adjusted. The Bills were without Byrd in the first four games and played every snap in just three games. To get a standardized comparison, I adjusted the average yards per play by each team’s end of season averages.
The impact on the pass defense got even bigger. Upon examining the adjusted play by play data, one game really stood out as being horrible without Byrd: the first Jets game. The Bills’ secondary was reeling in that game, as Stephon Gilmore was still out with his broken hand and Leodis McKelvin left the game early with an injury. Aaron Williams and Justin Rogers were the primary cornerbacks throughout the game. The Jets took advantage of the Rogers matchups and it was ugly.
The Jets averaged 11.41 yard per passing play in the first meeting. Once we take away the Justin Rogers game, the adjusted yards allowed per play gets closer. The defense with Byrd on the field still gets the nod, though.
Byrd’s value as a safety came when he was given freedom to roam as the deep safety. He had 22 interceptions in his five seasons as a Bill. Here’s where they occurred, with the exception of two against the Jets in 2009, since video wasn’t available for that game in the Game Rewind service. (I’ve posted another version on Twitter here).
I don’t want to analyze the chart too much at the risk of concluding something that’s just a confirmation bias, but I noticed that all but one of his interceptions came when either he undercut a route or fielded an overthrown or batted pass. His ability to make spectacular catches and read a play from the deep secondary is second to no one.
It would be fantastic if the Bills and Byrd can work out a deal so this supreme talent can help the Bills in years to come. But what if it doesn’t? The Bills would probably be worse off, but we’re really only talking about 22 plays in five seasons. They’re great plays, but they’re less than half a percent of Buffalo’s defensive plays over those seasons.
My fingers are crossed that number 31 comes back in 2014. I won’t be devastated if he doesn’t though. Someone else will just need to step in and make a play 0.42% of the time.
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