A theory that the Sox lineup so urgently needs more pop that they would bet the ranch on Mark Teixeira or Matt Holliday is, IMO, just plain wrong. Acquiring Teix, or Matt (who Billy B. could resurface at any time) is a not a terrible plan, might be a good plan, but is not necessarily the right plan, despite the howl of media. The Sox primary needs for 2009 revolve around catching and pitching, as the information below demonstrates.
In 2008, the Red Sox were the best hitting team in MLB despite serious injuries to top hitters. In fact, the numbers, considering how severely this team was banged up, are amazing. In 2009, with a healthy lineup and a few tweaks, the results should be even better. Below, the Sox are ranked against the top team in each category, and the Rays and Yankees, who we must get through to the ALCS:
Cat: Sox: Nearest rank Rays Yankees
BA: #1 @.280 Twins #2 @.278 #21 @.260 #6 @ .271
OBP: #1 @.358 TX #2 @ .354 #10 @.340 #6 @ .345
BB #1 @ 646 Cubs #2 @ 636 #3 @ 626 #19 @ 535
R #3 @ 845 TX #1 @ 909 #13 @ 744 #10@ 789
K: #14@1068 Mar #1 @ 890 #26 @ 1224 #8 @ 1015
SB: #7 @ 120 Rays #1 @ 142 #1 #8 @ 118
Even injured the Sox can hit, run, score, work the count. Although these numbers reflect the evolution of Youk, Dustin and Ells, they also reflect off years (hundreds of missed AB’s) by Big Bats Papi, Mike, JD, Tek; and Manny. Nevertheless, their power #’s are also strong:
SLG. #3 @.447 TX #1 @.462 #13 @ .422 #11 @ .427
HR. #10 @173 CSW #1 @ 235 #9 @ 180 T #9 @ 180
RBI. #2 @ 807 Cubs#1 @ 811 #15 @ 735 #9 @ 758
These numbers compare favorably even against teams built for power, substantially better than the Rays and Yankees, and suggest that with a healthy lineup the 2009 Sox will be among a handful of teams reaching 200HR, while improving in all other categories.
Where will the increased power and runs come from in 2009? Three sources.
Source #1. The Core. Healthy, the current starting 9 should produce 30-50 more HR with increases in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, RBI, R, SB. Can anyone see Papi, JD and Mike combine for just 50+HR again? 70-80 is more like it.
Source #2, Catcher. With or without Tek, the Sox have many good hitting choices with Salty, TG, Laird, Shoppach, Molina, Pudge, and Kottaras or Brown in the mix, to produce an additional 7-13HR in 2009. There is no urgency here to replace Tek, who may return, but to augment him.
Source #3. Rebuild The Bench for OBP and Power. While a no-brainer outside option may appear, the Sox would be wise to build this bench from within, maximizing the farm system, and using the saved $20N on a pitcher or catcher. Bring up successful, older, blocked prospects to create a 20+something, experienced but hungry Bench of proven hitters and decent gloves, instead of older more costly veterans on the decline and with little power. This would produce spark, and an additional 10 – 15HR at low $$.
Examples:
1. 1B/OF, Jeff Bailey. Triple AAA #’s are.301/25/75/.96OPS;
strong at Fenway. I.L. MVP in 2008.
b. OF, try for home boy Rocco Baldelli if available.
If not, speedy power hitter Jon VanEvery. In just 380
AB, was #4 in I.L.in HR, and hit.263/26/70/.884OPS/6SB.
c. IF/OF, speedy Joe Thurston, a reclaimation project who
has finally hit his stride, plays IF/OF, a club leader,
PawSox MVP, and .316/11/64/823OPS/19SB.
d. Catcher. All potential catchers have power. Pawsox
trained Kelly Shoppach hit 21 as backup in Cleveland.
Pawsox prospect George Kottaras hit 22/.804OPS in 395
AB, and Brown hit .290 w. power. The Sox have so many
good choices here, they need not drain the farm.
Conclusion: While hoping for 50-60 additional HR may be enthusiastic, it is possible. Conservatively, if this healthy team hits only 27 more home runs than last year (count Papi for half of them), the 2009 Sox would reach the elite 200HR category. As this is already the best lineup in baseball, the primary offseason need is not another big bat. However, Teix couldn’t hurt.
UNDER ARMED. Pitching.
To beat the Rays or Yankees back to the World Series, the real concerns are SP and RP. It is here that, unlike hitting, we are far from dominant, and surprisingly vulnerable.
STARTING PITCHING.
Despite starting 2008 with arguably the best rotation in baseball, by mid-year the wheels were falling off fast. Schilling and Tavarez gone. Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wake, Colon, Buchholz hurt. Zink, Pauley, Masterson, Bowden and Byrd brought in to slow the bleeding. We don’t know how health will impact Beckett or Wake, and we have little depth remaining. The following results are neither bad nor especially good, and 2009 improvements will be needed to insure ALCS and WS success (as in ‘pitching & defense’):
SP……#1 ……..Sox ………Rays …………Yankees
ERA Jays-3.72 #8 – 4.0 #6 – 3.95 # very high
WHIP Jays -1.24 #9 – 1.31 #4 – 1. # very high
W LAA – 73 #2 – 71 #5 – 66 # very low
L LAA/CC -40 #5 – 47 #6 – 48 # very high
K AZ – 849 #6 – 767 #11-714 #19 – 618
BB Min – 225 #21 – 347 #11 – 305 #3 – 276
HR LAD – 81 #10 – 103 #20 – 115 #3 – 86
Will a rotation of CC and AJ with a healthy Wang, Joba, Pettitte, Hughes be the dominant rotation in the league? Will the Rays make offseason moves to similarly bolster their pitching? Will the Sox? We can say that AJ, Ben, CC, Penny will get hurt, but isn’t the certainty of that about the same as for Beckett and Wake?.
The Sox, despite all the injuries, illnesses and disappointments, pitched pretty well, and we can assume better with a healthy Beckett and Wake. However, as of now, we don’t even have a fifth starter for 2009, and to dominate we need a fourth potential Ace to go with Beckett, Matsuzaka and Lester, and another strong season from Wake.
The good news: our three top rookie prospects, Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson could fill that slot. The bad news is, despite the urgent need for improved pitching, and more pitching depth,
a. Mazz, the Globe, Herald and bloggers seem intent on trading them. Hopefully, this is just to sell newspapers.
b. the Sox have little interest in the pricey, injury prone but highly effective F.A. pitchers.
Some ideas to resolve the rotation:
1. Keep Buchholz, Bowden and Masterson. Start Masterson in the rotation into May. Unless he is on a tear, move him to the Pen when Buchholz or Bowden come up in May.
2. Keep Masterson in the Pen. Acquire Kenshin Kawakami. An Ace in Japan, though not on a par with Daisuke, he projects high, despite a penchant for HR balls, He could surprise us all. But if he doesn’t, or if Wake develops an injury, we will need Buchholz and/or Bowden . . . if we have them.
3. Sign the lowest cost, shortest term pitcher of this FA draft, possibly Ben Sheets, Derek Lowe, or perhaps Brad Penny. Each could be a dominant 4th Ace when healthy. If we retain and rebuild our SP depth, we can accommodate an injury to Sheets or Penny (or Wake or Beckett) by May-June through Buchholz, Bowden, Tazawa, Kawamaki. Depth.
4. Sign CC or AJ. We get 20W, the Yankees don’t.
Conclusion: More than hitting, the Sox need another potential Ace in the rotation, and to restore their once fabled depth. This can be accomplished by retaining Justin, Clay and Michael, acquiring Kenshin &/or Junichi . . . and maybe taking a chance on an established FA Ace.
RELIEF PITCHING
RP took as big a beating as starting pitching, with injury and illness to Papelbon, Oki, Delcarmen, Aardsma, Hansack, Gronk, Snyder and the loss of Hansen, Breslow, Corey. Granted, the second half was remarkable, but we have never replaced the Gagne we never had, that elusive 8th inning, dominant set up guy. And already in postseason Marte, Gregg and Street are gone. Here are the 2008 stats.
RP. #1 Red Sox Rays Yankees
ERA Jays, 2.94 #11 – -4.0 #5 – 3.55 #7 – 3.79
WHIP Jays – 1.25 #12 – 1.35 #3 – – #4
W Rays – 31 #10 – 24 #1 #2 – 30
L Rays – 17 #4 – 20 (t) #1 #4 – 20 (t)
K Yanks – 523 #14 – 418 low #1
BB AZ – 164 #11 – 201 #19 – 21 #16
HR Jays – 33 #6 – 44 #12 – 51 #19 – 57
ER Jays – 134 #10 – 213 #4 – 191 high
SV LAA – 66 # 4 – 47 #2 – 52 #12 – 42
BSV Yanks – 9 #14 – 22 #4 – 16 #1
The Rays had 6 categories #4 or better, and the Yankees had 5. The Sox best scores are #4, twice, out of 11 categories, and 7 in the middle third of the league. Clearly, the Pen needs more work than does hitting.
Conclusion, the Sox need the Gagne we never had, a very strong back up for Papelbon to work with Oki, MDC and Monsterson. There are few FA or trade choices remaining, and the Sox may need to depend on Masterson, Hansack, Bard, Jones, Gronk and perhaps Bowden to become lights out, which may work as well or better.
CATCH A FALLING STAR. Catcher.
The reality is, if we can catch Tek for 2 – 3 years with a fair contract which segues into coaching and management, while he trains his successors, he would probably take our best offer. He is our catcher, the Red Sox catcher, if we can catch him. We can live with his falling star and stats as long as his offense is supplemented by a big bat and good arm from his proteges. All the other choices offer equal parts improvement and problems. If we can’t get Tek, we have plenty of time and plenty of choices, and must not give up Buchholz, Bowden or Masterson to get his replacement.
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