Hello Followers. Hope your weekend is off to a good start.
Today is just about as big of a game as we’re going to have this year. Win and we finish the first half in GREAT shape for a post-season run. Lose and we’re in a bit of trouble.
And for the Huskies, it’s pretty much a win or go home game for them.
Want to know my quick keys for today’s big game? Then read on.
Much has been made about the difference between Washington at home and on the road. As Bone noted earlier in the week, one reason why the Huskies win everything at home and lose everything on the road has to do with their physical play, particularly on the defensive end.
The reason why the Huskies’ physical play is so huge is due to one MAJOR flaw in their team: Top to Bottom they can’t shoot a lick. Unlike last year, when Justin Dentmon was a nightmare on the perimeter, the Huskies for the most part lack a perimeter threat. So, the way that they beat teams at home very similar to how CAL consistently beats teams: They parlay defensive stops into quick transition opportunities on offense.
So, the big key to the game for us is our execution on offense. IF we are able to score, then Washington will be forced into a halfcourt game that doesn’t suit them very well. Which brings me to key #1.
1) Stay close early. As this game moves into the final 10 minutes of the second half, Washington will get tight–assuming that the game is close. So, for us, our main key to the game is try to keep the game within two positions headed into the ten minute mark in the game. For us to do that, we’re going to have to whether what is sure to be an onslaught to start the game. Remember, in the three conference wins that Washington has at home, they were up double digits in the first half. We simply cannot let that happen.
2) Change the Line-Up. While Bone has hinted at making no changes to our current line-up, today is the day to start Nik. Simply put, if we have a third scorer on the floor to start the game, we are much more likely to see either Nik, Klay, or Reggie get off early. Again, if we score early, we’ll limit transition opportunities for them. If we make them shoot from outside early, then I think they’ll be in real trouble as the game progresses.
3) Know Your Match-Ups. We all know that Overton is one helluva on-the-ball defender–especially at home. But the other guards don’t match-up with us well at all. So, if Overton is guarding Reggie, then Capers has to run the offense. And, if either Overton or Thomas tries to guard Klay, then we’re going to have to seek post-up opportunities for Klay morning, noon, and night. Meanwhile, similar to the last 35 minutes of the CAL game, Reggie needs to know that neither Gaddy, Thomas, or Holliday can guard him. So, everytime that he sees ball pressure from someone other than Overton, he needs to take advantage.
4) Don’t extend on D. Not sure that playing a zone today will help us much–especially if we overextend up top like we did against UCLA in the first half last Saturday. But, if there was ever a time to play a quasi Pack D, today is the day. Again, while Washington (specifically Pondexter and Turner) might have one of those great shooting days, my sense is that if they have to shoot jumpers, they lose. So, pack it in, and make sure to limit second chance opportunities.
5) Win the battle of the X factors. For them, Overton is their guy. If we adds anything offensively and plays his typical defensive game, they have a good chance to wear us down. For us, our X factors are Thames and Watson. Xavier needs to continue to play confidently as a scorer (and knock a few down, unlike last week). But more importantly, he needs to limit turnovers when he’s running the point. To date, Xavier has had a tendency to telegraph that first pass up top. We need much more misdirection out of him in those crucial middle minutes of each half (15-5 minute mark). Finally, Watson has to give us 10 to 15 solid minutes of solid, physical, play. If he can hang tough for those 10 minutes, we’ll be in great shape.
Prediction: Won’t be able to watch more than the first half today due to little Sutra’s hoops game. But my sense is that UW is going to torch us early and then run away with the game. So, I’m calling this 84-63 Dawgs.
But, a 71-64 Coug victory looms as a real possibility if we can stay within 6 in the first half and MAKE OUR STINKING FREE THROWS.
Enjoy the game and LET’S GO COUGS!!!!!
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