Biggest Holes to Fill in 2015 & a Shovel To Fill Them

With the end of the post-season fast approaching and with it, the advent of free agency and the beginning of the trading season. It is obvious that the Indians need help if they want to be a World Series contender in 2015 and not just a Wild Card contender, although where that help comes from is yet to be decided. As always, super star free agents are likely off the table and while their is a lot of depth in the minors, only a limited amount will be Major League ready at the start of 2015. Of course, the ultimate benefit is that the Indians are only losing one player from the Major Leauge to free agency, Jason Giambi, so they have a solid base from which to build upon.

To begin, we can note where the Indians don’t have any holes. Places that they wouldn’t be able to improve by adding the best available player at each of these positions. This includes one outfielder, four of five starting rotation spots, the starting catcher, top four relievers and first base. This leaves at least six starting positions, three relief and possibly a bench spot left undecided going into the off-season. To further complicate things, there are a few players who will be unable to be improved upon, like Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, because of financial considerations already owed.

Looking at the the Indians WAR by position immediately brings to light a few of those holes worth fixing. To start, there were really only three positions (left field, catcher and first base) that held their own offensively and defensively. The numbers to the right show the combined WAR for all the Indians at their primary position (for example, catcher includes Yan Gomes, Roberto Perez and George Kottaras, but not Carlos Santana). The positive score at short stop is a combination of Asdrubal Cabrera, who had a great oWAR, but a negative dWAR and Jose Ramirez, who was slightly above average in both. The most obvious problem is at DH, where defense can’t effect WAR, yet Nick Swisher and Jason Giambi combined for the second worst WAR by position on the team. Other obvious places of worry are right field, where all four players (David Murphy, Zach Walters, J.B. Shuck and Ryan Raburn) finished the season in the red, second base, where Jason Kipnis was particularly disappointing and third base, where Lonnie Chisenhall‘s -1.5 dWAR destroyed half of his positive 3.1 oWAR.

The first solution may not be a popular one, but it would solve two of the biggest problem areas. Even before he made his MLB debut, it was known that Chisenhall was a poor defender and in his first full season, he proved the scouting reports accurate. Whether or not he can maintain his offensive pace is still up for debate, but his glove work was proven again and again as the season dragged on. While this is an aspect of his game that he can and should work on during the off-season, it may aide the Indians just to admit that he will most likely never improve. The positive note on that is that they have no decent option at DH, something that Chisenhall is completely capable of. What makes this move unlikely, is that it would move Swisher to the bench, limited to playing first on Santana’s off days and pinch hitting. He is getting paid a lot to be a bench player, but the fact is, his negative WAR proves that even an average AAA replacement player would be a vast improvement over him in the lineup. Chisenhall is considerably better offensively than an average AAA replacement player.

Of course, this leaves a new hole at third base. Now that we know the answer to this is not Santana, it is time to look elsewhere. One place to look could be at short stop, shifting the infield around once more. Jose Ramirez was very impressive during his half season in the center of the diamond and is likely the Indians top defender at third base as well. Assuming the Indians can’t bring in any outside help, he may be the team’s best option considering both offense and defense. Also, there is the fact that he is slightly expendable due to the expected debut of Francisco Lindor in 2015. Lindor made the jump to Columbus last season, batting .273 in 38 games with the Clippers and hitting 11 home runs, 62 RBI and stealing 28 bases overall. While he may not be quite MLB ready next April, it would be possible for the line-up to begin the way it ended in 2014 (Ramirez at short, Chisenhall at third and Swisher at DH) and ultimately move into a more efficient situation (Lindor at short, Ramirez at third, Chisenhall at DH and Swisher on the bench) as the season continues.

The final two major issues, both offensively and defensively, are at second base and right field. While some have postulated a fix could be to flip things around, moving Jason Kipnis into the outfield and Zach Walters to the infield, neither has proven defensively proficient at their prospective new home. In addition, Walters has yet to prove he can reach base effectively, making him a light version of Adam Dunn, without the walks. In addition, the Indians still have David Murphy (1.2 oWAR, -2.2 dWAR) and Ryan Raburn (-1.2 oWAR, -0.7 dWAR) under contract for next season and neither player can do much but play right field at this point. While they would be best served to release Raburn and eat his $2.6M owed, Murphy still has some hits left in his bat. Like with Lindor at short, the Indians have internal improvements in the outfield, including Walters and the defensively superior Tyler Holt. These two are the primary reason Raburn should be dismissed as there will be no room for either of them on next year’s 25 man roster if Raburn is included.

With recommendations to eat $2.6M and place $15M more on the bench, there are a few players who are set to be paid that must remain in their positions. Michael Bourn (1.6 oWAR, -0.2 dWAR) is owed $13.5M and while Holt (-0.2 oWAR, 0.4 dWAR in 36 GP) may be a better choice defensively, Bourn remains one of the Indians top offensive producers and should remain in the lineup. Here, a flip could also aide the Tribe as Michael Brantley has proven more proficient in center than he is in left (despite playing just about a third of his time in center, Brantley saved 0.3 runs above average according to UZR compared to -5.7 in left). Moving Bourn to left and Brantley to center could aid the Indians slightly on defense and possibly take some wear off Bourn’s hamstrings as he would have less ground to cover.

As can be seen, the Indians lineup has few holes to fill and most could be filled internally. While this would make the team slightly better than the 2014 edition, outside help would make the biggest difference. Of course, in previous seasons, outside help has equated to the likes of Giambi and Trot Nixon. If that will be the case again this year, they will be better off doing nothing at all.