Biggest Surprises

By Andrew Lipsett
With a month and a half of the season behind us, this team looks essentially like most people believed it would; a somewhat less potent offense, bolstered by a strong pitching staff and excellent defense. We’re about where we thought we’d be in the standings, too – in the middle of a tight, three-team race at the top of the AL East. But not everything with this team looks exactly like we thought it would, so today I thought I’d take a look at the biggest surprises thus far in the 2006 Sox season, and tomorrow look at the biggest disappointments.
YOUK
Kevin Youkilis was already a bit of a legend by the time he’d reached the majors in 2004, thanks to a starring role as the Greek God of Walks in Michael Lewis’s Moneyball. His almost legendary batting eye overshadowed his other skills; solid defense, good contact ability, a smidge of power, and a fantastic attitude. Sox fans have gotten to see all of these in action in 2006, as Youkilis stepped into the vacuum left by Kevin Millar and then into the hole at the top of the order, caused by the injury to Coco Crisp. All he’s done since then is hit; over the course of the 2006 season, Youkilis has batted an impressive .313, with a slugging percentage of .455 to go along with the promised .416 OBP. His eye has indeed been impressive – leaving many to believe he’s perfectly suited for constant top-of-the-order production, out of either the 1 or 2 hole.
What has impressed me the most is his amazing bat control; this is apparent in the way he makes contact, but also in his check swings, which are (and I can’t belive I’m typing this) the best I’ve ever seen. Youk manages to get more out of his check swings than any player I’ve seen. Hew almost never goes around, yet his body twists almost at full swing strength; he’s simply able to stop the bat and twist it around himself to avoid putting the head through the zone. I have to wonder how much of his patience has to do with that ability to stop a swing later than any player I’ve ever seen.
The Closer
Going into the season, Jonathan Papelbon was the 800 pound gorilla in the room: the guy everyone knew would be the best closer on the team, but the one no one thought would actually do it until a number of others had failed. To Terry Francona’s everlasting credit, he did not wait a single moment of 2006 before shaking up the bullpen; in the first save situation of the season, it was Jonathan Papelbon trotting out of that pen to lock down the save, causing jubilation in New England and panic for everyone who drafted Foulke in the 12th round of every fantasy league.
Papelbon has been nothing short of astounding from the pen. He’s been otherworldly. It’s almost impossible to say how he reacts to getting in trouble, because it so rarely happens: in 20 1/3 IP, Papelbon has allowed only a single earned run, walked only 3, and given up just 11 hits. He’s struck out 18. He’s pitched several high-stress innings in one-run games, and has only faltered once. He’s placed his fastball perfectly, used the split to get key K’s and GB outs, gone after every hitter, and showed the kind of mound presence that makes pitchers gods. When he’s out there, batters aren’t doing their job. When he’s out there, he is in control of every AB, every pitch. Someday – maybe next year – Jonathan Papelbon will be a starter, and he could be a pretty good one. But for now, he’s our one-man 8 inning game.
Lowell’s Resurgence
When Josh Beckett was traded to the Red Sox in late November, Mike Lowell’s inclusion in the deal was seen as secondary, as a necessary salary move that would facilitate our acquisition of the young ace. Immediately, the discussion centered on what we’d do with him once the season began: would we bench him? Move him to first for Youk? Trade him? Let him start, but keep him on a tight leash? Everyone, including myself, assumed that a 3B in his early 30’s with the kind of down year he had in 2005 simply wouldn’t be able to bounce back.
Instead, Mike Lowell has been the third best offensive player on this club. Going into last night’s action, Lowell was tied for first in the AL in extra base hits, and led the league in doubles. He’s been a stellar defensive presence and has been making a strong case to become the team’s #5 hitter. His .974 OPS is far and away the best of his career, and is the club’s best. His .585 SLG is also a team best, despite only 4 HR. Mike Lowell has been, to this point in the season, the Sox best offensive player, and arguably the MVP among positional players. Of all the possibilities for Lowell coming into this season, this was at the bottom. But here it is, and it has managed to make that November trade look even better than it already did.
He’s Back
No one knew what to expect from Curt Schilling in 2006. In 2004 – and for several years beforehand – he was among the very best pitchers in the major leagues. His heroics in the 2004 postseason contain some of the greatest moments in team history. But he paid for those heroics in 2005; recovering from offseason ankle surgery to repair a torn tendon sheath, Schilling failed as both a starter and a reliever, leading to questions about whether he was finally washed up.
Schilling has answered those questions decisively this season, getting off to an incredible start before coming slightly back to earth in recent games. He’s once again been the ace of this staff, a staff that had no ace in 2005. His numbers may not quite resemble those of his heyday, but they’re close; his 3.76 ERA is bettered by his K/9 of nearly 9, and an exceptionally low walk rate, as is his calling card. I continue to worry about his long term stamina, but as of this moment it seems clear that Schilling is back, and is at least healthy enough to dominate most of the time. And while he has a track record, his performance last year makes that a big – and welcome – surprise.