Here it is upon us again, the on time of year Bills’ fans have to look forward to; draft season. The NFL truly has become a year round sport, and no off the field event gets as much unnecessary coverage as the draft (except maybe the combine now). In fact yesterday online, I even saw an article where Mel Kiper gave out team grades in his mock draft. This is among the most ridiculous things I have ever heard. Due to Buffalo’s salary cap situation, there is very little depth on this team in some paces right now, so having a strong draft is critical. Here is how I would rank Buffalo’s needs currently:
1a) Edge Rusher/OLB- We don’t know exactly what Rex and Rob’s defense will look like for next season yet. Will it be 3/4 or 4/3? Chances are it will be both, which is why I think an edge rusher who is also athletic and could play in coverage would be a good pick. A Noah Spence type guy makes a lot of sense to me. If he falls, Shaq Lawson also would be a good fit.
1b) Versatile Defensive Tackle- a guy who can play both inside and outside would also be a big get for Buffalo. This would allow them some versatility when it comes to formations, as well as the ability to shift this player to DE to rush the QB in obvious passing downs. Additionally, Kyle Williams isn’t getting any younger. Jarran Reed would make sense in round 1. From a talent standpoint, Robert Nkemdiche also makes sense. A guy to look for in round 2 or 3 would be Jonathan Bullard from Florida.
2) ILB- With the recent release of Tony Steward, Buffalo has just 3 ILB on their roster right now. If you are going to play some 3/4, you need some depth here. A guy like Reggie Ragland from Alabama makes sense if you are going in round 1. Some guys to consider in later rounds would be Antonio Morrison, or Scooby Wright would be good values in later rounds.
3) FS- Buffalo has had quite the injury big at safety lately and very much need to develop someone here as we have no idea what will happen as Corey Graham started to look his age, and Aaron Williams couldn’t stay on the field. While I think a case could be made for SS as well, a good FS can cover up a lot of mistakes in the secondary (see Earl Thomas on SEA for example). There aren’t really any first round guys here that are realistic for Buffalo as Jalen Ramsey will be long gone by the time Buffalo picks. Expect a FS, and maybe even a SS to be picked on late day 2 or day 3.
4) OT- While I feel comfortable with Glenn at LT, our RT is a revolving door. I hope Henderson has his illness under control and can at least be a productive backup. I don’t feel great going into a season with Mills as my starting RT however. The good news is OT is a very deep position in this draft. Experts say as many as 25 OT could be drafted and I expect the Bills to grab one at some point when they see good value.
5) WR- Sammy is a stud. Everyone else is at best a third WR. Losing Hogan also hurts this position. I expect the, to draft someone in round 3 or later who can play some snaps at WR, but also contribute on special teams. The good news is that is today’s pass happy NCAA, there are so many good WR, that this position has become the deepest in the draft.
6) QB- We have Tyrod for one more season and then who the heck knows. Tyrod will be looking to get paid this offseason, and the question is will the Bills pay him. I don’t like either Goff or Wentz enough to trade away all the picks it would take to move up and draft a guy at 1 or 2. This is also an awful draft to need a QB. If the Bills do take 1, I expect a round 3 or so guy like Cardale Jones, Dak Prescott, or Kevin Hogan. If Cook or Hackenberg slip, I could see them being in play, but it wouldn’t shock me to see a team trade back into round 1 and make Cook the 4th QB taken in the first round.
7) CB- Teams know play about 2/3 of all defensive snaps in the nickel. You can NEVER have enough good cover guys in today’s NFL. I don’t know where Buffalo will find good value, but I 100% expect a corner to get taken at some point.
There you have it. These 7 positions are likely need to be addressed in the draft, or in FA before the season starts. Hopefully Rex and Rob can reestablish themselves as defensive geniuses again, because there are lots of holes on our current D. With 8 picks in the 2016 draft, I expect at least 5 to go towards defensive players. With our current roster, I would also be heavily in favor of trading down and acquiring more picks due to likely cheap contracts, and the fact that we have more holes to fill than I would like at this time.
A few quick hit “Hot Takes” for Round 1 tonight:
1. 3 QBs will be taken in the top 10. I fully expect Lynch to be picked at pick 7 when SF picks. If they don’t take him, I think someone will trade up to get him.
2. 4 QBs will be taken in round 1. I think Hackenberg will be the one, but it could also be Cook. I expect all five to be gone by pick 35.
3. Zeke Elliot is the best player in the draft and will go number 4 to Dallas.
4. Myles Jack will fall outside the top 10 as teams worry about his injury history.
5. Ohio State will not match the record of 6 first round picks and will only have 5 taken (Elliott, Bosa, Decker, Lee, Apple)
6. Treadwell will not be the first WR taken. His slow 40 time will make someone draft Doctson ahead of him.
7. Even though we all know the Rams are taking Goff, they will still take their full allotted time to pick.
8. Whatever team drafts Leonard Floyd from UGA will be disappointed. I don’t love taking guys who weren’t all that dominant in college in the top 10. On the flip side, Corey Coleman is every bot as good as Doctson and should be picked earlier than he actually will.
9. While some have predicted him to the Bills, Noah Spence will not go in round 1.
10. With the 19th pick in the NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills will select Robert Nkemidche.
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