So, I’m sitting on my couch yesterday, writing a post about the Bills signing Nick Barnett, when another Nick messages me on twitter about doing a dual post about the Buffalo Bills season. That other Nick, was Nick Mendola. What am I going to say, no? So, Nick and myself go over every single angle for the Bills this season. Depth charts, expectations, Fitzpatrick and more. Be sure to check out his site for more Bills and Sabres stuff. On a sidenote, we both decided to post this article on both our sites. So, after you are done reading it here, goto his site and read it again. Makes sense, right?
Nick: Well, Joe, we didn’t get a chance to talk Bills when I was in NYC because our FC Buffalo goalkeeper took a set of opposition teeth to his knee. So, where do we stand here with this team so far? Granted they haven’t finished filling needs (TE and OT come to mind, sorry Erik Pears and Scott Chandler), but I don’t see either a Cornell Green signing or Alex Carrington (who still bears some promise) among them.
Joe: I’m in a wait-and-see approach with this team and no, it doesn’t involve going insane 12 hours into free agency or a just an hour into a 7-on-7 drill. This is all about the grand scheme of things with the Bills. Right now I like what I am seeing because they are getting back to basics with building their football team. No, it’s not TO and a reality show or throwing 75 million at two crappy linemen or trading for an aging QB. It’s quite simple, it’s called drafting. Buddy Nix doesn’t care much about free agency because he understands that it’s all about the drafting. Check what San Diego did in the early 2000s: They won 18 games in a four year stretch, but they hit the jackpot on picks. That’s what Buddy wants to do. Playoffs for 2013 should be the goal.
Nick: 2013 is a bit too long of a wait for me, but I suppose that entire thing has to do with Ryan Fitzmagic. The guy is one shoulder injury away from having a subpar arm, but so are a lot of players. He’s been good. Was he simply the luckiest “gunslinger” in the world last season (Favre certainly wasn’t)? In the end, it will always come back to quarterback barring the ’85 Bears or ’00 Ravens showing up. Can Fitz continue to grow his game and not just his beard? Is his ceiling glass?
Credit: Ryan T. (2010)
Joe: Why does everyone not think that Fitzmagic (great jingle, BTW) can be the guy in the long run? Look, he’s still a young guy in terms of playing experience by starting only 33 career games. If you compare what he did in 2009 to 2010, he got much better. If you take out the Colts B-team season finale game in 2009, he had surpassed 200 yards only once and never passed for more than 1 touchdown in a game at that point. Last year, he went over 200 yards 9 times and passed for two touchdowns or more six times. That’s progress. If Fitz wasn’t a nerd or a first round pick, wouldn’t you be happy with those stats after 33 career starts? Bottom line: If you put Ryan Fitzpatrick on the Jets, I don’t think they miss a beat.
Nick: I’m one of the people who believe Fitz can do some big things, but it’s with that feeling of “This is the Bills fan in me” talking. He’s one of my favorite players to watch and talk to. It’s like Jason Pominville, who has always been a class guy to me and works hard. I want them to be good. It’s not that I wonder if Fitz can play like he did last year. I know he can. I have an old maxim that states you need a goalie at least as good as Marty Turco (in his prime) and a quarterback as good as Matt Hasselbeck (ditto). I think Fitz has that potential, but again, he has a glorious beard and I’m partial. The 2013 rationale you have is too long if Fitz takes a step forward. It’s about right if they only win six games and have to use their first-rounder on this potentially-legendary group of 2012 quarterbacks (which I’ll probably advocate doing anyway, but that’s for another day). This NFL does not require elite WRs or RBs. The Bills are alright on their interior line, good on their defensive line. Honestly… I’m optimistic.
Joe: 2013 is probably too long and we are really impatient as a fan base which is warranted when you consider I didn’t have my driver’s license when the Bills won their last playoff game. But I’m giving them a lot of time because I don’t want the team to just make the playoffs once, I want them to make it multiple times. It’s going back to the Chargers’ way of building a team. They developed younger players and have been a Super Bowl contender since 2004. As for Fitz, I think if you surround him with the talent level the Jets have, he can take you to the playoffs. Now, if there is a franchise QB there in the draft for the taking? Sure, go for it. However, I think there are other needs to fill first. You can always add the QB later if you wish. It doesn’t have to be right away. I will admit, I do like Fitz a lot as a person. He’s just a cool guy, very down-to-earth, and I am rooting for him. I couldn’t do that with Trent because he was a bore and just a terrible QB.
Aston Villa fan Troup
Nick: Well, this is one of the first years we’ll get to really analyze Buddy Nix, and it could also give leeway to guys like Aaron Williams and Chris Hairston, who I’m assuming were picks not for this year. (You also have to wonder what it all says for the organization’s opinion of Leodis McKelvin as a guy in the future.) To me, aside from Dareus, this draft class is unimportant this year other than special teams and depth. I want to see CJ Spiller justify not selecting Brandon Graham or Maurkice Pouncey. Troup over Gronkowski or Beadles. Carrington over Colt McCoy. Maybe that’s unfair… but I don’t think it is.
Joe: It’s unfair because you should wait three years on a draft class, but you are right. We need to see something. Just progress from the 2010 class. When Arthur Moats is your best rookie draft pick because he has a catchy nickname and had 2.5 sacks, you know we are begging for progress. They just have to hit on their draft picks. Any of them! You can’t have an entire draft class from four years ago not be on your football team. They, realistically, have to hit on 2-3 players a draft. If they don’t score in the draft, they are in serious trouble. That’s where patience comes into play. I’m kind of optimistic because I feel Buddy has a plan, but he has to execute it. The jury is still out on him. We know he’s a great soundbite, and I think when he’s done being a GM someone should approach him about using his voice for a GPS, but it’s still too early to give him a grade on his drafts or say that he “knows football”. As for Spiller, there are no excuses this year. Running backs are suppose to adapt to the NFL more quickly than any other position. They have to give him the ball more than 7 times a game. I hate to say it, but do you think they need to take away carries or minimize Fred Jackson’s role on the offense? You can only have so many skill players and Spiller is the future, not Fred.
Nick: When you take a guy No.9 overall he needs to be a lock for 1,250. I love Fred Jackson’s story, but it’s like worrying about Donald Jones being cut because they signed Brad Smith. Let’s stop being a settling fan base. Last year, it may have sounded like I was, but it became apparent as the season went on that Chan and Buddy didn’t give a crap about 2010. They let Trent stink to give his allies evidence why Fitz was the guy. They trotted out 82 UDFA WRs when Josh Reed would’ve done just fine. Why? It was the future. No room for the past. See ya, Marshawn. Sorry, Stroud. Peace, Poz. This is going to be our team and our era. If we’re crap, it’s because of the meals we prepared. Not to mention, no more Aaron “Maybe I’ll practice” Schobel going on his own terms. I’m kinda surprised they didn’t deal Lee, but he’s beloved by the youngsters and his contract wouldn’t yield much.
Joe: There are no reasons for veterans to be on this team unless they are a bridge-gap to the next guy or can be here in the long-term. Poz for seven million bucks was a complete joke! I’m happy to have Barnett at three million less and if he’s healthy, he will play better than Poz. Let me ask you this, and it’s a little off topic. You seem optimistic, but at same time, you really want this to turn around really fast. Do you think fans want this to change in a hurry because they are worried about the team’s future? Remember when the Nordiques left for Colorado, and the next year they won the Cup? Can you imagine if that happened here? Martial Law is all I can say. Do you think that is in back of the minds of Bills fans? You know, lets win now, before our team leaves? Because in this offseason, I’ve noticed a lot more fans being impatient with this team than in years past.
Nick: I really hope Bills fans don’t think about this. When I worked at WGR, it would drive me nuts to have to discuss the Bills leaving because I just don’t see it (apart from the big scare that was Ralph and Ted in Toronto having fun talking about money). Honestly, I think the league would do better to expand (Vegas, L.A.) or to employ relegation. There isn’t a market outside of Jacksonville that is having trouble selling out games with a halfway decent product. I genuinely believe Buffalo as a market is turning around despite some of the people in charge. Toronto doesn’t need a team and they don’t want somebody else’s team.
This happened.
The Bills have done a good job at actually bottoming out. It’s going to be difficult for this team to win as few as four games. As I said in the podcast, you can’t expect Stevie Johnson to drop a gimme touchdown and the refs to again allow Shawn Nelson to be held in the air until the Ravens can tear the ball out. There’s two more should-be wins… against playoff teams. That’s without taking into account the aforementioned Trent garbage to start last year. I think you’re a mediocre tight end/offensive tackle away from 8-8, especially with Miami bumbling at QB.
Joe: I wrote a post about how the Bills were a bunch of bounces away from going 8-8 or 9-7. Of course, they did beat out teams with QBs by name of Stanton, Delhomme and Henne. Even still, I agree they need a couple more players to really challenge for the playoffs. It’s too bad we had to be in the AFC East and not the NFC West. I think what Bills fans need to hope for is that these guys get more experience. You gotta pay your dues first before you get better at your job. On the coaching front, I was not on board with the Chan Gailey hiring, but he’s grown on me. He helped make Stevie Johnson and Fitzpatrick into NFL caliber players. Roscoe Parrish was washed up going into last season, but Gailey fixed him and #11 was on pace to catch 66 balls before he got hurt. Kyle Williams is a beast. If they can get four more guys to make strides this year and have those four I just mentioned maintain their strides, we will be in good shape. The question is, which player will go from what Stevie Johnson was last year to Stevie Johnson this year?
Nick: Let’s hope Stevie Johnson. Honestly, we’ve seen enough yo-yo receiving between Moulds/Evans from year-to-year to know better than to expect greatness. That said, Johnson also gets the same starting quarterback. Honestly, I know Zach Miller is Oakland’s No. 1 priority, but getting something out of the tight end position would be massive for this team. For years we’ve had the tight end who could only catch or could only block. It’s like tipping your hand. The Bills had 23 catches from their tight ends last year. It bears repeating.
It’s not difficult for me to imagine the Bills splitting with the AFC West and they should be able to beat a horrendous-looking Redskins offense. Nothing really scares me about Cincinnati or Tennessee, even with Matt Hasselbeck (although certainly they are saying the same thing). If they can snag two games in division, it’s very difficult for me to envision this team being any worse than 6-10 (which, yes, is a poor record). But the road schedule is quite bearable. That said, the Patriots are only as good as Tom Brady this year (which is pretty darn good). The Jets have a look at 14 or 15 wins.
Joe: You know, I’ve been pounding my fist against the wall about getting a tight end for years. But at this point, I’ve honestly given up. I don’t think the organization values them for some strange reason. Jay Riemersma and Pete Metzelaars shouldn’t be your best tight ends in team history. I’ll say this though, I don’t think Gailey would want to use one. He likes having four wide sets and if you look at his career as a coach, besides his one year where he inherited Gonzo in KC, he’s never been much of a TE guy. I think the biggest factor for the Bills this season is Shawne Merriman. If he can get back to 2007 form, and that’s a BIG if, I think this defense is going to be top 15. He was that good during those years. The Bills need a pass rusher, especially on the outside. Record wise, I think 6-10 is realistic for this team.
Nick: Well, tight ends haven’t exactly had quarterbacks around here. I was a Riemersma fan (though admittedly I had high hopes for Tim Euhus and Mark Campbell). This will sound like a joke, but if Merriman’s back on roids or HGH or whatever, it could make a big difference. I know that’s not politically correct, but I don’t really care. But yes, the linebacking is the key to the defense. The front line should be good to very good. The secondary should be at least decent. Moats going back to OLB would make me breathe easier. Honestly, it’s going to go down to Demetrius Bell, the other tackle, Fitz and the LBs.
Joe: Haha! Yeah, someone call Hulk Hogan or Jose Canseco. Better yet, call Mr. Miyagi and see if he can do the same trick he did on Daniel LaRusso’s leg in at the All-High Valley Tourney to beat Johnny. All bad jokes aside, the depth of the Bills line is terrible. As a unit, they weren’t as bad as some make them out to be. They went from giving up 46 sacks in 2009 to 34 in 2010. But if D. Bell gets hurt, we are screwed. Never thought you’d say that two years ago, right? Where are you at with the secondary? They were down as a unit last year. I remember at one point, they had just one INT in a 10-game stretch. This was the same unit who was tied for 2nd in 2009 in the picks department. I’ll say this, if there’s one player on this team who has a do-or-die season coming up, it’s Leodis McKelvin. That guy has too much talent to be your 3rd corner.
Nick: Well, Florence is good and McGee’s injury plagued the unit for all of 2010. Corner isn’t awful and I think McKelvin’s going to make some more strides this season. The biggest mystery to me is Williams, who I had pegged as a safety. I don’t know that Rogers has any corner skills, and I just want to point out that Chris Watson might’ve been the worst Bill of all-time. I think it’s safe to say we’ve covered nearly everything, but let’s go for broke with some predictions on numbers for five wide-outs: Roscoe Parrish, Lee Evans, Stevie Johnson, David Nelson, Brad Smith. AND, does Marcus Easley contribute at all? Who else makes the team? Jones, Naaman out?
Joe: I got Roscoe Parrish, Lee Evans, Stevie Johnson, David Nelson and Marcus Easley, with Brad Smith being the 3rd QB. I have no clue if Easley will contribute, but being a former 4th round pick makes me think the coaches will give him every chance to succeed. Maybe they keep 6 wides, but I don’t think Jones makes it if they go five. Mainly, because he’s a lot like Roscoe Parrish. As for predictions, I think Johnson will have an 80 catch year and will prove himself to get a big time contract. I have absolutely no confidence in Lee Evans. He’s been mailing it in for the last 3 years, and I’m finished with giving him the benefit of the doubt. I say 50 catches and one 50-yard bomb for a touchdown. I think David Nelson is going to have 6 touchdowns this year because without a tight end, he’s your biggest target in the end zone. Roscoe was one of Fitz’s favorite targets last year, so, there’s no telling what he will do. Alas, Naaman will be the odd man out unless he has a great preseason.
Nick: I’ll go somewhat ideal and take Johnson for 70 catches and 1,200 yards, seven TDs. Evans for 50, 900, 5. If Roscoe and the rest of the wideouts can get you 140 grabs, 1,200 yards and seven scores, you’re going to be able to add in TEs and RBs to get to 4,000 yards passing and 20-some touchdowns. Not bad. I think Naaman is going to work his butt off to make this team. Jones and Roosevelt are looking at a hard road.
Joe: As for the team expectations, I think the Bills can win 7-8 games this year. Sure, I’m banking on a young team gaining experience and how they almost won 4-5 more games last year. However, if Nix,Whaley and Gailey know what they are doing, by year two of a rebuilding campaign, the team should be hovering around the .500 mark. Then, by year 3, hopefully, we are talking playoffs. Gun to my head: 6-10 for this season.
Nick: I don’t want any guns near my head when I say 7-9. I also had fun. Let’s do it again sometime, perhaps on your podcast.
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