Over the duration of the last season, the Columbus Blue Jackets have transformed from a punching bag to a team that is recognized by their opponents for hard work, tenacity around the puck, and solid goaltending (most of the time). The limited offense style of hockey fans witnessed last season is only successful with a quality goaltender, and Sergei Bobrovsky proved ready for the challenge shortly after his arrival. It led me to wonder exactly how much he impacts the team, and what expectations we can place on his shoulders game after game.
One thing that is rarely in question is Bobrovsky’s worth ethic. Many articles have been published noting his tireless desire to be the best goaltender possible, constantly working to improve every facet of his game. After a stellar 2012-2013 shortened season, his efforts (21-11-6, 2.600 GAA, .932 save%) propelled him to a Vezina Trophy victory, one that most would consider was a lock. While some feared his incredible output would diminish over time, optimism left many wondering if he could actually improve even further.
Of course, to have a chance at winning hockey games, a team must have a competent goalie. I find that various teams can get away with weaker goaltenders thanks largely to a strong defense or a high powered offense, but Columbus proved they needed to be held afloat in 2012-2013, scoring only a single goal more than they allowed during the season. They scored 120 goals for (25th in the league) and 119 goals against (11th in the league). With that measly 2.5 goals for average, I decided to take a deeper dive into Bobrovsky’s numbers to see where that special number for success lies.
To begin, I looked at the wins and losses generated by the total number of goals scored on Columbus;
As you can see, the real meat of the totals are within the 1-2 goal range. A pretty impressive statistic for Bobrovsky, and unsurprising with the 2.48 goals against noted earlier for Columbus in the 2012-2013 season. It’s also worth pointing out that between 1-2 goals scored, the team record (with Bobrovsky in net) is 18-7-2. A solid record, but one would hope that if the goalie has only allowed two goals, the victory would be well within reach for the team. Impressively, the team fared relatively the same regardless of whether two goals or three goals were scored on them.
I then decided to consider Bobrovsky’s save percentage as a benchmark for success. I broke out the totals to be greater than .930, greater than .920, greater than .910, greater than .900, and worse than .900:
All games better than .930 (19-2-3): This is an astounding statistic to me. To put it in a ‘per save’ perspective, that’s around 27 saves on 29 shots (.931). Mind you, this is not an average, but any and all games which Bobrovsky mustered better than .930, and remarkably, 21 of the 24 were better than .940. This leads me to the conclusion that when the team is playing solid defensive hockey, and Bob is in the one, he is a Vezina caliber, stellar goaltender.
All games better than .920 (21-2-4): Only three games fall under this category, and it adjusts the overall total by 2-0-1. Again, to put it into a ‘per save’ perspective, that is around 23 saves on 25 shots (.920). I should also note that of the three games under this category, two were .929, barely falling outside the .930 grouping. In any case, 21-2-4 is absolutely stellar. It is far more sustainable than .930, and nearly meets his career .917 save percentage mark.
All games better than .910 (24-4-4): Extending the results to .910 included three victories and two losses. Two of the games included three opposition goals, and three of the games had the opposing team scoring twice (remarkably two resulting in 2-1 defeats). This is an interesting benchmark to be made because it seems as though when Bobrovsky plays to between .910-.920 the likelihood for success falls far more into the players hands than it does his own. Regardless, an overall record of 24-4-4 remains exceptional.
All games better than .900 (25-5-4): Surprisingly a small sample size, only one victory (4-3) and one loss (2-1) are included in this group. As the onus on the 2-1 loss probably falls more on the offense than Bobrovsky, it’s fair to assume that once again, the success at this save percentage is more on the team overall rather than solely on the goaltender. Regardless, 25-5-4 is a spectacular record, and considering how far that number falls under Bobrovsky’s career totals and expectations, it leads to a great deal of optimism.
All Games WORSE than .900 (0-12-2): This is spectacularly bad. As though a magical switch had been turned, the Blue Jackets have never won a hockey game when Bobrovsky has has had a save percentage below .900. Columbus as a team has scored two goals on average during this fourteen game stretch, with many of the games being a differential of only a single goal. This is a very telling statistic on the needs for Columbus to play in front of a capable netminder.
Remember back in the day, conversations of an invisible ‘bar’ late in the year as the playoffs neared. Where Columbus sat above or below it was enough to give the avid fan cold sweats, and I can’t help but feel the same way about this invisible line of goaltender save percentage. There are obviously countless metrics unconsidered, such as shots, quality shots, blocked shots, time of possession, and powerplay/penalty kill success rates, but this outside glance does a nice job of showing what needs to happen with Bobrovsky each time he steps between the pipes.
To take his last five games as a sample (2-3-0); 4-3 loss vs Anaheim (28 of 32 .875), 5-2 win vs Toronto (23 of 25 .920), 4-1 win vs New Jersey (24 of 25 .960), 4-1 loss vs Washington (35 of 39 .897), 5-3 loss vs Montreal (31 of 35 .886). Adjusted to bring his save percentage above .900, the Anaheim goes to overtime (remember the goal scored basically off the goal line when Bob thought he covered his post?), they still lose to Washington (deservedly), and they go to overtime with Montreal (their 5th goal was an empty netter, and their fourth goal was a disaster on the part of Bobrovsky). That gives the team an updated 2-1-2 record during that timeframe with the potential to be 4-1-0.
Coming into this piece, I had fully expected the bar to be just below his previous year total of .932 – which is certainly an entirely unsustainable total and one that I would send into the pipe dream abyss with shrugged shoulders. With that said, I have been shocked to find out that Columbus has not necessarily needed Bob to be stellar game after game in order to have success. While many of the games above .930 on his record show that every save was needed, many of the games on the bubble lead me to believe that small mistakes here and there give the team the potential to be very strong without a major overhaul.
One thing is for sure. Sergei Bobrovsky has made a world of difference for the success of this franchise, the confidence of players in front of him, and optimism from this particular Blue Jackets fan.
Carry the Flag!
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