Book Review: Ahead of the Curve

When I started reading Ahead of the Curve: Inside the Baseball Revolution by Brian Kenny, I noticed a sense of anger. I did not understand it at first. It was not off-putting or strange, but it seemed familiar for some reason. Kenny was writing about the use of stats in modern baseball. Writers such as Bill Simmons and Chuck Klosterman have written that these stats have taken the fun out of baseball (which is idiotic.) Perhaps that is where Kenny’s ill temper was stemming from. Then, I remembered just a few years ago, I was in almost the same position … and it drove me crazy.

I used to be the grand commissioner to the fantasy baseball and football leagues for the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. I was the Treasurer – a spot they have not been able to fill since I absconded. Despite the title, I did not deal with the money. My role was to set up the fantasy leagues and check out new applicants. Because I ran the leagues, I met a lot of interesting people in the fantasy “industry.” By the way, I always hated the term “industry” because fantasy writers were not actually making anything other than terrible predictions – myself included.

In any case, I like to play with the settings in fantasy leagues. The previous grand commissioner (with my input) set up the baseball leagues to use on-base percentage and slugging percentage, which is a nice step up from batting average and home runs. I think Kenny would have approved. Walks and doubles should count! Wins, the least representative statistic in all of sports, was my next target. I proposed using quality starts (at least six innings, no more than three earned runs), which is not a great stat in itself, but is miles better than wins. The problem with wins, as Kenny details in his book, is that a pitcher can pitch great and not get a win because his offense – of which he generally has very little to no control – does not do enough. A pitcher can also perform terribly, but his offense comes through and he gets a win. Don’t even get me started on the stupidity of relief wins.

To my great surprise, I received some blowback on dropping wins. There was a vocal minority who had enough of my progressive ways and wanted to keep wins. Their arguments (if they can be called arguments) were that fantasy leagues had always used wins and that is what they were used to. For whatever reason, I really cared about this and was unyielding in my criticism of their viewpoint. I wish I had had Kenny’s chapter on #KilltheWin to support my argument. Eventually, we put it to a vote and quality starts squeaked out the, ahem, win over wins. Justice was served, but the struggle caused me to question my place as grand commissioner. I would soon drop out of the organization, which – to be honest – doesn’t do very much.

I think Kenny would have been proud of my struggle. It is apparent that he is surrounded by frustrating baseball meatheads (also known as former players) and writers (like Mitch Albom) who disparage the use of math in baseball. Kenny takes aim at the uselessness of not only wins but also bunts (percentages clearly show that a team is more likely to score with a man on first with no outs compared to a runner on second with one out), RBIs (context dependent), MVP voting (largely RBI dependent), and saves (which cause managers to save their best relief pitchers for save conditions). By the way, even though I knew saves were silly, there was no better way to value relief pitchers in fantasy without going for straight outs and runs allowed. Adding holds (otherwise known as “minor wins”) didn’t do much for me.

In music, I like expressions of anger. I like a lot of punk music. While the parallel between Ahead of the Curve and the Sex Pistols is a stretch, there are some common elements. Punk influenced music that came after the late 70s. Kenny notes at the end of his book that sabremetrically inclined people have taken over the management of many baseball teams. Just like in my fantasy struggle for quality starts, it appears that the right side has won.

Grap a copy here:
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