At two ‘o’clock Monday afternoon, the #5 Oregon Ducks will face their first opponent of the 2012 calendar year, as they host the #10 Wisconsin Badgers in the Vizio Rose Bowl.
Head coach Chip Kelly will have his latest shot to beat a worthy opponent in a BCS game, having gone 0-2 in his first two postseasons at the helm. Kelly will have his usual arsenal of offensive firepower onhand, and it should be the last time redshirt junior running back LaMichael James takes the field in a Ducks uniform, as he is rumored to be declaring for the NFL draft once the season is concluded.
James will undeniably be the key to an Oregon victory, and while the truth is that there are few people on this planet that can chase down LaMichael James in the open field, finding open space against the Badgers could prove problematic, which could be a serious concern.
James has enjoyed a ridiculously successful collegiate career, racking up 4,923 yards (averaging 6.5 per clip) and 52 touchdowns; yet many of those yards have come against lackluster opponents with so-so defensive lines.
At just 175 pounds, he lacks size. Standing just 5’9”, he lacks height. Regardless of his quickness and overall versatility, he cannot always make up for his size shortcomings with heart.
In his three seasons as a starter, James has arguably faced four pro-caliber defenses, and the results have been staggering, but not in the way most might assume.
In the Rose Bowl against Ohio State to conclude the 2009 season, James rushed for a pedestrian 70 yards and provided zero touchdowns in a 26-17 defeat.
In last season’s National Championship game against Auburn at the University of Phoenix Dome, James’ speed should have been at its peak on the indoor track, yet he faced wall after wall of defenders, and was held to just 49 yards and zero touchdowns; although he did haul in two key receiving touchdowns in a heartbreaking 22-19 loss.
And in the 2011 season opener against LSU at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, James again failed to lead his team to a win against an elite defense, as he tallied just 54 yards and a rushing touchdown in a 40-27 loss.
James is 1-2 against the SEC (Tennessee counts whether those southern blowhards want to admit it or not), and 0-1 against the Big-10 in bowl games and regular season matchups.
Truthfully, and to the shock of many Ducks fans, James did struggle against bigger and faster defenders, and yet there were always beacons of hope.
Against USC, arguably one of the finest and most NFL-comparable defenses in the nation, James has done more than hold his own.
In 2009, his first year as a starter, James rushed for 183 yards and a score in a 47-20 triumph. In 2010, he again ran all over the Trojans, this time for 239 yards and three touchdowns en route to a 53-32 lopsided victory. In the current season, and rumored to be his final in a Ducks uniform, James had just 78 yards, rushed for a score, and lost a costly fumble in a 38-35 disaster that ultimately kept the Ducks out of national title contention.
500 yards and five touchdowns against one of the better defensive units in the nation? Not too shabby. 166 yards on the ground from your running back is usually good enough to win or at least put your team in a position to win.
Hopefully the Ducks can get that type of production from James against the Badgers, who happen to be a very gifted team on both sides of the ball.
Senior QB Russell Wilson is having a banner year, posting nearly 3000 yards along with 31 touchdowns against just three interceptions. Aiding his cause will be junior running back Montee Ball, who has shown himself a very capable runner after taking over for John Clay late last season. Ball has churned out 1,759 yards and 32 touchdowns in the 2010 season, putting him 15 more scores and just over 100 more yards on the year than James (1,646, 17 TD’s). Ball also has more size (5’11”, 210lbs) than James (5’9” 185lbs), which could pay dividends against a smaller albeit very quick Ducks defense.
James will not be alone, as junior QB Darron Thomas has recovered from some early season struggles to find his niche and post some remarkable numbers with 2,493 yards and 30 touchdowns against just six interceptions while missing two games.
Wideouts Lavasier Tuinei and DeAnthony Thomas should provide more than a spark on offense, as they have combined for over 1,000 receiving yards and 17 of Thomas’ scoring strikes. Senior TE Greg Paulson has some of the best hands in the collegiate game, and will allow Thomas to make those clutch throws over the middle.
The two teams in this game are mere images of eachother, as both have high octane offenses to go with “bend but don’t break” defenses that do just enough to keep the other team behind. Wisconsin averages 44.6 points per game, good enough for 5th in the nation, while the Ducks tend to score 46.2 per game, the 3rd best mark in the country.
The Badgers defense is a bit bigger and a bit better, allowing just 17 points per contest, the sixth lowest number of all FBS teams. The Ducks meanwhile, allow a 46th ranked 23.6 points per game, often taking until the second half to take over games and force opponents to play catchup.
The Ducks and Badgers have similar numbers on offense, as the Ducks average 295 rushing yards (5th) and 219 passing yards (68th), while the Badgers have posted 237 rushing yards (11th), as well as 229 passing yards (64th). Both teams are 11-2 overall, and have fared well against top-25 opponents, as Oregon has a 2-1 record and the Badgers 3-1.
Both teams won their conference’s inaugural championship game, and have had ample time to find chinks in eachothers’ respective suits of armor.
Wisconsin head coach Bret Bielema is in his sixth year, and is headed for his second straight Rose Bowl. Like Kelly, Bielema will be hoping for his first BCS victory, as he lost the Rose Bowl to TCU last season, his first BCS berth as the Badgers head coach.
Truth be told, the Badgers are not as good as this year’s LSU Tigers or even the 2010 Auburn team that handed the Ducks a heartbreaking loss in the BCS title game, however they do look like a team similar to the 2009 Ohio State Buckeyes squad that beat the Ducks in the Rose Bowl two seasons ago.
The Badgers are big, fast, and hungry, and they have comparable talent on offense to go with a good enough defense to protect a lead should Oregon come storming back from a potential deficit.
Oregon needs to get ahead fast, and stay ahead if they want to win this game. The Badgers have big lineman on both sides, and will severely hamper the Ducks offense if they are allowed to run the ball effectively late in the game. Thomas will need to make quick decisions that work in the best interest of the team. Kelly will need to call plays that pay dividends later on, even if they don’t work immediately. That may mean working the 6’1” 227lb Tra Carson in to the lineup earlier than usual to help soften the Badgers defensive line so that James can burst through it later on.
It may mean something the Ducks have never done under Kelly. It means being boring early, and securing a win the old fashioned way, with passing to begin the game and keep the defense honest, as they will no doubt key on James and force Thomas to beat them with his arm, something he has shown to be very capable of at times in his short career.
The Ducks have beaten Stanford and USC in the last couple of seasons, and both of those squads are comparable to the Badgers in most areas, and should help the Ducks in keeping things close and in their favor.
Oregon has been blanked in BCS wins since their amazing victory over Colorado in the Fiesta Bowl to follow the 2001 season, and this Monday afternoon the Ducks find themselves going bowling yet again, and they should be working ever harder for a strike, and not another strike out.
Catch the game live on January 2nd 2012 at 2pm PST on ESPN and 750AM the GAME
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