Bracket Projection Update: Febraury 6

The headliner game of last week was Kansas’ victory over Baylor. However, that game lost some of its luster as both teams followed it up by losing at home to middling Big XII teams. Big wins over the weekend for Kansas St, Oklahoma St, and Iowa St saw the Big XII add 2 teams to the bracket this week. In the ACC, Georgia Tech and NC State came back down to earth while Syracuse is surging. Iowa is starting to put things together in the Big 10 but still has a long way to go before bubble consideration. Out West, Oregon hammered Arizona over the weekend and is starting to look like the Final 4 contender everyone thought they would be. Florida’s pounding of Kentucky muddled the picture at the top of the SEC a bit where there are 3 teams that look like locks and everyone else fighting for relevancy on the bubble.

There are 5 weeks left until Selection Sunday and a lot will change between now and March 12th when the brackets are announced. The hardest thing to differentiate right now between the bubble teams is the value of “no good wins but no bad losses” (i.e. the Wake Forest’s of the world) vs “multiple good wins but multiple bad losses.” I considered all teams in the Top 80 of the RPI for my bracket projection (no team with an RPI over 80 has ever received an At-Large bid). Last week, I wrote about how the Committee develops the bracket.

All current conference leaders are presumed as conference champions and appear in bold.

Previous editions: 1/27, 1/30

East Region

Buffalo
1. Villanova vs 16. NC Central/Mt St Mary’s
8. Virginia Tech vs 9. Kansas St

Sacramento
4. UCLA vs 13. Boise St
5. West Virginia vs 12. Monmouth

Milwaukee
3. Kentucky vs 14. Princeton
6. Wisconsin vs 11. Middle Tennessee

Orlando
2. Florida St vs 15. Furman
7. USC vs 10. Seton Hall

Midwest Region

Tulsa
1. Kansas vs 16. Sam Houston St/Weber St
8. Clemson vs 9. Marquette

Salt Lake City
4. Arizona vs 13. New Mexico St
5. Purdue vs 12. Wichita St

Milwaukee
3. Creighton vs 14. Vermont
6. Notre Dame vs 11. Dayton/Indiana

Indianapolis
2. Louisville vs 15. Akron
7. Minnesota vs 10. Tennessee

South Region

Tulsa
1. Baylor vs 16. Texas Southern
8. Northwestern vs 9. Georgetown

Orlando
4. Florida vs 13. Arkansas St
5. Cincinnati vs 12. UNC-Wilmington

Indianapolis
3. Butler vs 14. Winthrop
6. Maryland vs 11. TCU/Syracuse

Greenville
2. North Carolina vs 15. Belmont
7. St Mary’s vs 10. VCU

West Region

Salt Lake City
1. Gonzaga vs 16. UC Davis
8. Michigan St vs 9. Oklahoma St

Buffalo
4. Duke vs 13. Bucknell
5. South Carolina vs. 12. Valparaiso

Greenville
3. Virginia vs 14. Florida Gulf Coast
6. Xavier vs 11. SMU

Sacramento
2. Oregon vs 15. North Dakota St
7. Iowa St vs 10. Miami

Play-In Games (Tuesday in Dayton):
Dayton vs Indiana (Winner to Milwaukee)
NC Central vs Mount St Mary’s (Winner to Buffalo)

Play-In Games (Wednesday in Dayton):
TCU vs Syracuse (Winner to Indianapolis)
Sam Houston St vs Weber St (Winner to Tulsa)

Conference Breakdown: ACC – 10, Big Ten – 7, Big XII – 7, Big East – 7, SEC – 4, Pac-12 – 4, A-10 – 2, West Coast – 2, American – 2

Last 4 Byes: Tennessee, Seton Hall, (VCU), Miami, SMU

Last 4 IN: Dayton, TCU, Syracuse, Indiana

First 4 OUT: Georgia Tech, Ohio St, Wake Forest, Pitt

Next 4 OUT: Providence, (Middle Tennessee), Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Charleston

Others Considered: Illinois, Rhode Island, Ole Miss, California, (Wichita St), Auburn, Georgia, Stanford, Illinois St, Nevada

Note: Teams in parentheses appear in the field as projected conference champions. They are included in the “Bubble Breakdown” here to note their position if another team were to win the conference.