Bracket Projection Update: February 13

There are 5 weeks left until Selection Sunday and a lot will change between now and March 12th when the brackets are announced. The hardest thing to differentiate right now between the bubble teams is the value of “no good wins but no bad losses” (i.e. the Wake Forest’s of the world) vs “multiple good wins but multiple bad losses.” I considered all teams in the Top 80 of the RPI for my bracket projection (no team with an RPI over 80 has ever received an At-Large bid). Last week, I wrote about how the Committee develops the bracket.

All current conference leaders are presumed as conference champions and appear in bold.

Previous editions: 1/27, 1/30, 2/6

East Region

Buffalo
1. Villanova vs 16. Mt St Mary’s/NC Central
8. Oklahoma St vs 9. Miami

Sacramento
4. UCLA vs 13. Arkansas St
5. Cincinnati vs 12. Boise St

Indianapolis
3. Kentucky vs 14. Princeton
6. Wisconsin vs 11. TCU/Wake Forest

Indianapolis
2. Louisville vs 15. North Dakota St
7. USC vs 10. Michigan

Midwest Region

Tulsa
1. Kansas vs 16. Weber St/New Orleans
8. St Mary’s vs 9. Michigan St

Milwaukee
4. Duke vs 13. UNC-Asheville
5. Creighton vs 12. Middle Tennessee

Salt Lake City
3. Arizona vs 14. Akron
6. Maryland vs 11. Georgia Tech

Orlando
2. Florida St vs 15. Belmont
7. SMU vs 10. VCU

South Region

Tulsa
1. Baylor vs 16. Texas Southern
8. Virginia Tech vs 9. Tennessee

Milwaukee
4. Butler vs 13. Bucknell
5. Purdue vs 12. Valparaiso

Orlando
3. Florida vs 14. Furman
6. Xavier vs 11. Syracuse/California

Greenville
2. North Carolina vs 15. Vermont
7. Northwestern vs 10. Iowa St

West Region

Salt Lake City
1. Gonzaga vs 16. UC-Davis
8. Georgetown vs 9. Kansas St

Buffalo
4. West Virginia vs 13. Monmouth
5. Notre Dame vs 12. UNC-Wilmington

Greenville
3. Virginia vs 14. Florida Gulf Coast
6. South Carolina vs 11. Wichita St

Sacramento
2. Oregon vs 15. CSU-Bakersfield
7. Minnesota vs 10. Dayton

Play-In Games (Tuesday in Dayton):
Syracuse vs California (winner to Orlando)
Mt St Mary’s vs NC Central (winner to Buffalo)
Play-In Games (Wednesday in Dayton):
TCU vs Wake Forest (winner to Indianapolis)
Weber St vs New Orleans (winner to Tulsa)

Conference Breakdown: ACC – 11, Big Ten – 7, Big XII – 7, Pac-12 – 5, Big East – 5, SEC – 4, A-10 – 2, West Coast – 2

Last 4 BYES: Michigan, Iowa St, (VCU), Dayton, Georgia Tech

Last 4 IN: Syracuse, California, (Wichita St), TCU, Wake Forest

First 4 OUT: Pitt, Seton Hall, Clemson, Ohio State

Next 4 OUT: Marquette, Indiana, Arkansas, Rhode Island

Others Considered: Providence, Penn St, (Middle Tennessee), Illinois, Vanderbilt, UT-Arlington, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Auburn, Illinois St, Nevada, New Mexico St

Note: Teams in parentheses appear in the field as projected conference champions. They are included in the “Bubble Breakdown” here to note their position if another team were to win the conference.