Atlanta Braves: Is This Really The Plan?

Every move that the Atlanta Braves have made this offseason has had an eye towards the future and signaled that they are not really planning to compete in 2015.  I’m lumping the Markakis deal in there, because nobody knows for sure what that was about.  But these are the Atlanta Braves, and punting on a year is not something that this team, nor its fanbase, is accustomed to.  Consider that since I have been alive (1991), the Braves have only had three losing seasons and never finished with fewer than 72 wins.  Sure, last year’s squad lost its luster in the second half, but the team only finished four games below .500.  It does’t look like that streak of excellence will last another year, a totally new reality territory for a proud organization.

Personally, I’m unwilling to accept that this, right now, really is the plan.  And I don’t think I’m alone.

John Hart, acting GM, still thinks the Braves can compete in 2015: “We may not be the prettiest girl at the dance, but we’re going to be a lot of fun to dance with.”

John Coppollela, assistant GM with significant say, had this to say recently: “There’s more than one way to skin a cat. We feel like we’re going to have a good team.”

So with that, let’s see how these team possibly competes in 2015.

First, let’s make it clear that the Braves are not going to turn into the 1927 Yankees.  They’re not going to try to, either.  With the price of power hitting at a premium and with the 2014 success of the Royals and Cardinals, two teams that finished last in HRs, this Braves strategy of no-homers may be successful, if not sexy.

Second, the NL East was going to be a tough division for the Braves to score runs, no matter how good the lineup looks on paper.  The Nationals’ addition of Max Scherzer over the weekend only added to their rotation that already lead the Majors in rotation ERA.  The Mets are looking to get Matt Harvey back from TJ surgery and have a rotation chock full of good pitchers, with more highly touted prospects on the way.  The Marlins story basically mirrors the Mets, but Mat Latos and Dan Haren will surely help to stabilize their young rotation.  As a side note: Latos is currently listed as the Marlins 3 on their official depth chart.  It’s a division that will be playing a lot of low-scoring, close games.

So how do the Braves win low-scoring, close games?  Build a bullpen that doesn’t give up runs.  The Braves have done that, almost too well.  At current, they’ve got Craig Kimbrel, Jim Johnson, Jason Grilli, Arodys Vizcaino, Shae Simmons, Michael Kohn, Luis Avilan, and James Russell capable of pitching in the 7th inning and later.

I’m not going to be the first, or only guy to suggest that the Braves trade Craig Kimbrel.  But, I’m suggesting it.  Atlanta should trade the best closer in baseball in an attempt to compete in 2015.

The Braves do not have a lineup that right now, even if everything goes as well as it possibly could, would rank among the top half of the league.  So we’re trading Kimbrel for a left fielder, a position of serious need.  However, the Braves had a right handed bopper in left in Evan Gattis and traded him away,  so what’s in the Braves management playbook?

Well,  the Rockies sure have some interesting outfielders.  Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson are capable of playing center, which is definitely a consideration given the way that BJ Upton is awful.  Carlos Gonzalez is an interesting guy in that his talent is immense, but he only realizes that potential for about 6 weeks a season.  All three are left handed and don’t seem to pair well with the only two Braves that I’m confident will hit, Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis.  And I don’t see the Rockies all that interested in the Braves package of Craig Kimbrel and pitching prospects.

Denard Span is an interesting candidate in that the Nats could potentially be selling an outfielder to allow Ryan Zimmermann to play out there if first base doesn’t work out, but he seems to be pencil into first for the foreseeable future.  The Red Sox’s Allen Craig is a great buy-low candidate, but I’m not sure he’s a better defensive option in left field than Gattis, and is even more uncertain with the bat.  Other Red Sox, such as Brock Holt and Shane Victorino hardly turn this team into a contender, and I think that Mookie Betts is staying put in Boston, though would certainly be an interesting get for the Braves.

Starling Marte makes the most sense.  He’s young, affordable, and is an atypical left fielder in that he’s not a bopper. Could the Pirates be interested in a package including Craig Kimbrel?  This small market club has been very successful of late building on obscure reliever excellence, so they would likely be more interested in dealing for some of the Braves recently acquired young pitching.  The Pirates currently have Vance Worley listed as their number two starter and, 2.85 ERA last year or not, he’s still Vance Worley and he’s not a number 2.

How about Starling Marte for a package centered on Mike Foltynevicz?  Alex Wood?  Mike Minor?

Does this trade for a 4-win left fielder even bring the Braves to a reasonable level on contention?  Fangraphs currently has the team projected for 71 wins.  I think that’s a bit pessimistic for any club, but adding 4-5 win over the Zoilo Almonte plan in left brings them to 76.  Then, if you figure Chris Johnson and BJ Upton go from their combined -1.6 WAR to something more like 1 WAR, we’re looking at another 3 wins….  Shoot, this lineup is not going to look good heading into the year.

This team, at best, will follow the model of the 2011 Atlanta Braves.  That squad’s best position player was Chipper Jones, with 2.6 WAR.  They still won 89 games, behind a solid rotation and historic bullpen.

This Braves team can compete; it will just have to find a left fielder (possibly by trading their All-World closer) and getting extremely lucky in close games.  Is that irrational?  Nope. (Editor’s Note: Maybe)

-Sean Morash