Predictions and rankings are as much a part of college football as marching bands and tailgating. And unfortunately, so are season-altering, landscape-changing injuries—such as the one to Ohio State quarterback Braxton Miller’s throwing shoulder that will sideline him for the entire season.
Ranked fifth in the preseason AP standings, the Buckeyes were in a prime position to make the inaugural College Football Playoff given their favorable schedule (it currently features just one game against a ranked opponent—Michigan State) and the promise of Miller, a Heisman Trophy favorite, returning for his senior season.
Now, Urban Meyer will likely turn to redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett as his starting quarterback. Many believe OSU could still win the Big Ten with Barrett at QB, who has about the same size and skill set as Miller, and was a highly-touted, four-star 2013 recruit. As for me? I have my doubts.
My doubts don’t necessarily have everything to do with Barrett, even if he is coming back from an ACL tear his senior year of high school and has not taken a snap in a college football game. What many seem to be overlooking is that the Buckeyes have lost more than just Miller this season.
OSU is only returning one starter from its 2013 offensive line, and both its leading rusher and receiver, Carlos Hyde and Corey Brown, are also gone. Miller alone accounted for 44 percent of the Buckeyes’ 2013 offensive yards as he threw for 2,094 and ran for another 1,068. Throw in Hyde’s 1,668 yards from scrimmage and Brown’s 771 receiving yards, and Ohio State has to replace a whopping 78% of its 2013 offensive yards. And that number doesn’t even include Miller’s 36 combined touchdowns, Hyde’s 18 and Brown’s 10.
That kind of production cannot be taken for granted, and it definitely won’t be replaced just because the replacement pieces were supremely talented high school players. I definitely expect a learning curve, and who knows how long that process will take.
While Miller’s injury obviously directly impacts his team, there will also be a ripple effect throughout college football. For one, it invites scrutiny upon any Big Ten team in the eyes of the playoff committee. For instance, Michigan State, which has an early season matchup with Oregon it could lose, would be relying on a big win against Ohio State late in the year to put it back in the playoff discussion. However, a win against a Miller-less, and potentially struggling, Buckeyes team may not mean much to the committee. Or even if Ohio State itself has one or two losses, would the committee look to another option that still has its star QB?
With defending champion Florida State and the future SEC champ expected to be locks for the playoff, that essentially leaves two spots for teams from the other three power conferences (Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12), or maybe from one of the non-AQ conferences. As noted above, the Big Ten is probably going to be heavily scrutinized by the committee unless a team runs the table. The Pac-12 is DEEP this season, and could face a similar problem to what the SEC has faced in the past: beating one another up too much. As for the Big 12, most believe either Oklahoma or Baylor will emerge at the top (with Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Texas as wild cards), but a lack of conference title game could hurt the champ as other teams will likely have one more game to impress the committee.
And therefore, enter conferences like the AAC. An insane amount of possible scenarios exist that could lead to any number of teams making the College Football Playoff. So, why wouldn’t it be possible for the AAC champion to be selected?
If the “big boys” from the Power 5 conferences all end up with a couple losses and the preseason AAC favorite Cincinnati Bearcats run the table with road wins against Ohio State and Miami (Fla.), would that be enough to land them in the playoff? It would certainly put a lot of pressure on the committee to determine if an undefeated non-AQ or a multi-loss Power 5 team is more deserving of a playoff berth.
We saw what 2013 AAC champion UCF was able to do when given a chance in the Fiesta Bowl against Baylor. The playoff committee could be faced with a precedent-setting decision to make, and it will be interesting to see what factors they decide to favor the most.
Oh, and as for those bold predictions I made for the Bearcats a couple weeks ago—I won’t be changing my mind based on Miller going down. However, let’s say if I favored Ohio State over Cincinnati at around 60-40 odds before his injury, I think I would downgrade that to a 51-49 in favor of the Buckeyes. I already said I expected UC to take OSU down to the wire, and that was with Miller running the show for the Bucks.
The Bearcats have an opportunity in front of them on September 27, and I certainly would not be surprised if they took advantage of it.
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