Breaking down all the possible playoff scenarios

This has been a spectacular season by just about any measure, but in the heat of what the end of this season has become, this is not the best feeling in the world. The Celtics went from controlling their own destiny for the 3rd seed to controlling their own destiny for the 4th seed to now potentially finishing 6th.

There’s one game left in the regular season (two if you’re Miami), and there is still a ton to be determined. Here’s how everything can shake out for the Boston Celtics.

First.. the standings.

Miami plays at Detroit tonight.

Tomorrow’s schedule: Miami @ Boston, Orlando @ Charlotte, Atlanta @ Washington.

OK, let’s go… here’s the wildest scenario:

Miami wins tonight, Boston wins tomorrow, Atlanta loses.

It doesn’t matter what Charlotte does. If they win, then ALL 4 teams will be 48-34. In that scenario the seeding will go like this:

3: Miami
4: Atlanta
5: Boston
6: Charlotte

Miami would get the multi-team tiebreaker by winning the division. Atlanta holds the tiebreaker over Boston and Boston holds the tiebreaker over Charlotte. If Charlotte loses, they’re still 6th.

Side note: We do not want this. Starting on the road in Atlanta is a bad thing. Forget about who you play in the second round… this has a high potential for a first-round exit. It’s the least favorable scenario.

Miami loses to Detroit, beats Boston, Atlanta wins, Charlotte wins

3: Atlanta 49-33
4: Miami 48-34
5: Charlotte 48-34
6: Boston 47-35

See above “we don’t want this” note. Miami hold the tiebreaker over Charlotte.

Miami beats Detroit, beats Boston, Charlotte wins

3: Miami 49-33
4: Atlanta (doesn’t matter)
5: Charlotte 48-34
6: Boston 47-35

It doesn’t matter if Atlanta wins or loses in this scenario. In any scenario where Miami wins twice, they win the division. Miami has the tiebreaker over Atlanta and Atlanta has it over Charlotte so if Miami wins twice, they win the division. Atlanta meets Charlotte in the 4/5 game and Boston goes to Miami for games 1 and 2.

Miami beats Detroit and Boston, Charlotte loses

3: Miami 49-33
4: Atlanta (doesn’t matter)
5: Boston 47-35
6: Charlotte 47-35

Miami loses to Detroit and Boston, Charlotte loses

3: Atlanta (doesn’t matter)
4: Boston 48-34
5: Miami 47-35
6: Charlotte 47-35

If Miami loses twice, then it doesn’t matter what Atlanta does. They’re 3rd since they hold the tiebreaker over everyone else.

Miami loses to Detroit and Boston, Charlotte wins

3: Atlanta (doesn’t matter)
4: Boston 48-34
5: Charlotte 48-34
6: Miami 47-35

So it boils down to this:

1: Boston needs to win tomorrow. A loss eliminates home court altogether. It doesn’t matter what else happens.

2: We’re rooting for (a) Detroit to beat Miami or (b) Atlanta to beat Washington because that will eliminate the multi-team tiebreaker scenario if Boston also wins.