Mark from the Collision Course and I had a conversation about tonight’s battle for the Keg of Nails yesterday. It was posted there and here because Bloguin blogs work together. /Chest bump. Look for the Louisville preview this afternoon.
What is your favorite memory from the battle for the Keg of Nails series?
UCBB: There are considerably less options for Cincinnati the past few seasons, but I’m going to with with 08. UC was 1-9 the last 10 years against Louisville, and they were coming off the program changing (in hindsight) win at West Virginia. Even though it’s marked with a Kragsterist now, Louisville still had a winning recording going into the game. That game saw Dustin Grutza play for the first time since he broke his leg, and he led the last TD drive. Looking back at the play by play brought back memories. Like being pumped UC stopped the Cantwell sneak, and then total deflation when Rogers missed the icing field goal, then back to elation when it seemed every UC player celebrated the Keg of Nails. Also, last year was nice because UC finally beat Louisville in Cincinnati for the first time since 1842.
TCC: For every Louisville fan, the most memorable game in the Keg of Nails series will always be the 70-7 beatdown in Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium in 2004. That game became famous as the birthplace of the “don’t stomp on the bird” mantra. The Bearcats stomped on the Louisville Cardinal logo at midfield. The Cardinals stomped on Cincinnati. It was a vintage Bobby Petrino blowout. Eric Shelton scored on an 80 yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage and the rout was on. The Cardinals rushed for 357 yards and lead 21-0 after the first quarter, 42-0 at halftime, and 63-0 after three quarters.
Characterize your team as we open Big East play.
UCBB: UC is sitting at 2-3. They are coming off their best performances of the season however. The offense that everyone expected has finally showed up after 4 weeks of making people go crazy. The Bearcats have elevated expectations back to getting people thinking they can win the Big East. After seeing the Big East, they have a chance. Everyone has a chance. Except South Florida.
TCC: Louisville is improved but right about where reasonable people thought they’d be. Through five games, the Cardinals 3-2 with touchdown losses to Kentucky and Oregon State. The wins have been over inferior opponents (Eastern Kentucky, Arkansas State, and Memphis), but even in victories over such teams, the improvement is evident. The Cardinals have scored more points than the week prior in every game and have yet to allow a fourth quarter touchdown (I expect both of those facts to no longer be true after Friday night).
That being the case, what would be a successful season from here on out?
UCBB:I think a successful season would have to be being in the top 2 of the Big East. That probably requires UC losing no more than 1 game the rest of the way. I don’t really know if you could say a 5 loss regular season would be successful, I wouldn’t. The ultimate success would be running through the Big East, and bouncing back fully after the rough non-conference slate.
TCC: I think getting to six wins and bowl eligibility is a reasonable goal and would still be a remarkable accomplishment for this team and this coaching staff. Which three teams in Big East play could the Cardinals beat? I really have no idea but I think a sense of where the Big East is will be clearer after this weekend.
What is your team’s biggest strength heading into tomorrow night’s game?
UCBB: The biggest strength going into the Louisville game is Zach Collaros. I don’t think it’s taking too big a leap in saying that Collaros is the best QB Louisville has played this season. Collaros carved up the Cardinal defense last season with his arm and feet, and if he keeps the offense running, I don’t think UC will lose.
TCC: Without question it is the offense, and the running game in particular. Although the Cardinals have thrown the ball better the past three games, the running game with Bilal Powell has been solid from game one. Victor Anderson is out this week, but Louisville is getting Jeremy Wright back just in time to fill his shoes.
Biggest weakness?
UCBB: The offensive line. It doesn’t matter if the Bearcats start Andre Cureton or Sean Hooey, they are going to feel some heat. I know Louisville hasn’t played the best competition in the world, but they have racked up the most sacks in the Big East. At the same time, the Bearcats have given up the most sacks in the Big East. It could be a reenactment of the Fresno game in some aspects, even though Louisville doesn’t have anyone as good as Chris Carter.
TCC: Without question it is the defense. Although Louisville is leading the league in sacks, those sacks have come mostly against inferior competition and have been the result of being able to bring numerous blitzers. Against a team like Cincinnati, the defensive line must put pressure on Collaros without needing multiple blitzers because the secondary can’t run man to man against Woods and Binns all night.
Which player(s) for the opposing team worries you the most?
UCBB: Bilal Powell no question. He’s been the best, or second best, back in the Big East this season. Louisville’s offense moves when he moves. He’s been a beast the past two weeks. Even though UC has had stellar run defense, I’m still worried about Powell finding holes and taking off. To a lesser extent, I’m worried about Josh Bellamy. Louisville has gotten him going the last two weeks, and the UC secondary has had a propensity to blow coverage.
TCC: It has to be Collaros. I’m tempted to say Pead because he’s been on such a roll right now, but, if Collaros is clicking and making accurate throws, Louisville will be in for a very stiff test. There have been times against both Arkansas State and Memphis that receivers have been open and the sub par quarterback play kept those teams from capitalizing on it. Collaros likely won’t have the problem, and if he’s also making plays with his feet, I can’t see how Louisville wins.
Who for your team must have a big game in order for it to win?
UCBB: Isaiah Pead. Pead has exploded the past two weeks since returning from injury. Pead had a big game against Louisville last season, with 88 yards and 2 TDs in just 6 carries. Collaros is the most important player, but if Pead gets off huge runs, the UC offense is hard to contain.
TCC: Although Bilal Powell is clearly the Cardinals’ biggest weapon, Louisville will not win without a good game from Adam Froman for two reasons: first, Louisville has gotten big games out of Powell against both Oregon State and Kentucky and lost. Second, Cincinnati is surprisingly good against the run. That being the case, Louisville cannot rely on pounding it out with Powell and the other backs. Froman will have to make accurate throws, make plays with his feet, and make good decisions with the football. If he’s anywhere near 200 yards passing for the game, without a ton of turnovers, Louisville will win the game.
Prediction for the game?
UCBB: I think this is going to be a pretty tight game with UC pulling away late. I know Louisville’s offense has been amazing, and Oregon St, Arkansas St and Memphis (St) are all ranked in the lower 12 in total defense because of Louisville, but I’m not totally sold on them. That’s why I say Cincinnati 31 Louisville 20.
TCC: I’ve tossed and turned this game in my head all week. Frankly, I’ve just enjoyed the fact that we’re talking about a meaningful Big East game that Louisville could conceivably win. I know Cincinnati’s defense is statistically one of the best against the run, but, they’ve not really played anyone that is as determined to run the ball as Louisville will be, and for that reason I expect Louisville to run the ball with success. That will benefit a defense that can’t afford to have Collaros and the Cincinnati receivers on the field for very long. With the running game established, I look for Froman to be effective on play action and bootleg plays and Louisville to score enough to come away with a close win, say Louisville 28 Cincinnati 20.
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