Breaking Down The Seattle Seahawks 2010 & 2011 Drafts By The Numbers

In 2008, Mike Holmgren’s swan song ended with an unceremonious 4-12 record. In 2009, Jim Mora’s internship as head coach tallied a 5-11 mark. While former GM Tim Ruskell botched the Aaron Curry pick in 2009, he did successfully trade Seattle’s 2^nd round pick in 2009 to Denver for a 2010 1^st round pick (Earl Thomas). John Schneider selected Earl Thomas, but Ruskell did acquire the pick. I’m still going to give Schneider the credit on that one mostly because I loathe Tim Ruskell and he likely would have selected Taylor Mays over Earl Thomas anyway. Ask San Francisco how Mays is working out so far.

I could talk all day about how much I hate Tim Ruskell. In fact, you can subscribe to that mantra by signing up for my blog at www.timruskellisatool.edu (I was able to register it as an .edu because the FCC deemed that that knowledge needed to be spread to the masses). But anyway, we’re here to examine John Schneider’s draft strategy.

In 2010, Schneider selected the following: Russell Okung, Earl Thomas, Golden Tate, Walter Thurmond, EJ Wilson, (LenDale White), (Kevin Vickerson), Kam Chancellor, (Leon Washington), Anthony McCoy, Dexter Davis, and Jameson Konz.

In 2011, Schneider selected: James Carpenter, John Moffitt, (Charlie Whitehurst), KJ Wright, Kris Durham, (Marshawn Lynch), Richard Sherman, Mark LeGree, Byron Maxwell, Pep Levingston, and Malcolm Smith.

But let’s look at these drafts another way – Year: (Round), Position.

2010: (1)OL, (1)DB, (2)WR, (4)DB, (4)DT, (4)RB, (4)DT, (5)DB, (5)RB, (6)TE, (7)DE, (7)DE.

2011: (1)OL, (3)OL, (3) QB, (4)LB, (4)WR, (4) RB, (5)DB, (5)DB, (6)DB, (7)DT, (7)LB.

Let’s assign each draft round a point structure. A 1st round pick garnishes 7 points. A 4^th rounder gets 4 points. A 7^th round pick garnishes 1 point, etc. Then we’ll tally the points.

After doing that, you can conclude the following data per position:

1. Defensive Backs. 6 picks. 22 draft points.

2. Offensive Lineman. 3 picks. 19 draft points.

3. Running Backs. 3 picks. 11 draft points.

4. Wide Receivers. 2 picks. 10 draft points.

5. Defensive Tackles. 3 picks. 9 draft points.

6. Linebackers. 2 picks. 5 draft points

7. Quarterbacks. 1 pick. 5 draft points

8. Defensive Ends. 2 picks. 2 draft points. (Jameson Konz is a converted DE, drafted as a TE/FB

9. Tight Ends. 1 Pick. 2 draft points.

Looking at this data, it is easy to see that John Schneider and the Seahawks have invested serious amounts of draft capital into their offensive line and defensive backs. More than half of their draft points go into those two categories. Seattle had 5 pro-bowlers in 2011. 3 defensive backs, and 2 running backs who largely benefit from offensive line play. It is pretty hard to argue with those results. So the good news is that the positions that Schneider drafts, turn out well thus far.

Digging deeper into the numbers, you’ll notice that Seattle has not invested much draft capital into the Defensive End over the last 2 years. That position is regarded as the most glaring need for Seattle this off-season. Think about that statement for a moment. The biggest need for Seattle is the position that Schneider has yet to truly address in his 2 drafts.  That is a very large compliment to Schneider and the team. It essentially means that every other area of the team is performing competently. For a roster that produced 9 wins in the two prior years, that is one hell of a compliment.

Next look at the following draft pick data that exemplifies playing time.

2010: Starter, starter, starter, backup, cut, cut, cut, starter, starter, backup, injured, injured.

2011: Starter, starter, backup, starter, injured, starter, starter, cut, backup, reserve, backup.

Let’s assign the following points for their playing status. 2012 Projected starters get 5 points. Backups get 3 points. Reserves get 1 point. The unidentifiable talent due to injured players gets 0 points. And cut players get -2 points.

1. Defensive Backs. 6 picks. 19 playing points. 3 starters, 2 backups, 1 cut.

2. Offensive Lineman. 3 picks. 15 playing points. 3 starters.

3. Running Backs. 3 picks. 8 playing points. 2 starters, 1 cut.

4. Linebackers. 2 picks. 8 playing points. 1 starter, 1 backup.

5. Wide Receivers. 2 picks. 5 playing points. 1 starter, 1 injured.

6. Tight Ends. 1 Pick. 3 playing points. 1 backup.

7. Quarterbacks. 1 pick. 3 playing points. Clipboard Jesus counts as a backup.

8. Defensive Ends. 2 picks. 0 playing points. 2 injured.

9. Defensive Tackles. 3 picks. –3 playing points. 2 cuts, 1 reserve.

This data clearly spells out the effectiveness of the positions drafted over the last 2 years. Yet there are obvious areas for improvement, starting with defensive ends. The jury is still out on 2010 7^th round picks Dexter Davis and Jameson Konz who have been unhealthy over the last two seasons. It has been well documented that Seattle is targeting this slot for the draft this year. The defensive tackle situation saw 2 cuts and 1 reserve over the last 2 drafts. Not ideal. Though, Schneider did address this area in free agency last year when he resigned Brandon Mebane and signed Alan Branch. Those two made 31 starts combined last year, not bad. Lastly, we all know that Seahawk Nation is expecting Settle to make a move for a QB this offseason. My hunch is that Schneider will take one in the 2^nd round, but we’ll see. This data could have gotten more complex had I included pro-bowl appearances and the work of undrafted free agents like Brandon Browner and Doug Baldwin. However, those things are more or less anomalies that should not weigh too heavily on our minds when analyzing drafts like this. One thing is for sure, if John Schneider can keep up this sort of accuracy rating for every Seahawk draft, we are all in for a lot of exciting Sundays over the next few years.

FOOTNOTES – I labeled Leon Washington as a starter, though Kick Returners are not traditionally awarded starter status. Also, I labeled Pep Levingston as a reserve since he was primarily on the practice squad and inactive list in 2011. I also counted Leon Washington, LenDale White, Kevin Vickerson, Charlie Whitehurst, and Marshawn Lynch as members of the draft classes since they were all acquired via 2010 & 2011 draft picks.