I finished the regular season over 50%!!! In other words, I beat Vegas.
Well I can’t get too over-confident now. It is time to dominate these Playoffs. There are going to be a ton of good games and intriguing matchups, I can hardly wait. Those good games all start this Saturday when the Wild Card Round begins.
The thing that makes this Wild Card Round so unique is that not a single home team is favored, not one. That means that the Vegas thinks that the 4 Wild Card teams are all better than the Division Champs. This is caused by various factored, not least of which is quarterback play. You are going to see a very common theme as I break down each game.
For once, Vegas and I agree. I am going with all four road teams to win this week. Am I crazy???
Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 @ Houston Texans
The Texans finished the season by winning 7 of their final 9 games. That is pretty impressive. But they also started the season 2-5, and played in one of the weaker divisions in the entire league. The Chiefs on the other hand, have won 10 straight games, with highlight wins against the Steelers and Broncos. The Chiefs started the season 1-5. This is a tale-of-two-seasons for both teams.
Home field advantage becomes even more crucial in the Playoffs but I don’t think that this matters in this game. Weather is obviously not a factor playing in a dome, and home field wasn’t a huge advantage for the Texans this year. These two teams already met once in Houston in Week One. The Chiefs walked away with a 27-20 win. But drawing comparisons to this game, 17 weeks later is almost impossible. These are two completely different teams.
In my mind, the difference in this game will be consistency and experience. Alex Smith and Andy Reid have much more Playoff experience than Brian Hoyer and Bill O’Brien. Neither team has a definite advantage in skilled positions so it will come down to the quarterbacks and coaches. That is worth more than 3.5 points for the Chiefs.
Chiefs 24 – Texans 17
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ Cincinnati Bengals
These two division rivals met twice this season. They each won their road game of the matchup. The last time they met was four weeks ago when Andy Dalton broke his thumb. The Steelers went on to win that game 33-20.
The Steelers needed some help to get into the Playoffs as the Wild Card team, but that doesn’t mean that they didn’t take care of business down the stretch. The Steelers were 4-1 in the last five games, their only loss in an embarrassing showing against the Ravens. The Bengals on the other hand are happy to have taken care of business early in the season because they split their final 4 games of the season.
Both teams came into the season with Super Bowl aspirations, and both teams are still trying to win the next 4 games and be crowned at Super 50 champions. Each teams’ success, however, will hinge on the health of their starting quarterback. Ben Roethlisberger looks to be as healthy as he has been all year, but Andy Dalton is still doubtful to play on Saturday. With Dalton sidelined, the Bengals don’t have what it take with A.J. McCarron under center.
Steelers 38 – Bengals 31
Seattle Seahawks -5 @ Minnesota Vikings
Living in the northwest, I am automatically expected to jump on the Seattle Seahawk’s bandwagon. That is one thing that I have avoided all of these years. However, I can recognize a good football team when I see one. The Seahawks are peaking at the right time and Russell Wilson is playing some very efficient football. However, I do not think that last week’s dismantling of the Cardinals shows much.
Despite the recent success, the Seahawks have the toughest matchup in the Wild Card Round. The Vikings won a must-win game last week against the Packers to win the division. Minnesota is going to walk on that field with a little momentum and swagger. But will it be more momentum and swagger than a team that has made it to the Super Bowl two years in a row?
Like the two Saturday, Wild Card games, this one come down to quarterback play. You can argue that Russell Wilson is one of the best quarterback in the league, he has no-doubt been playing the most efficient football in the past 10 weeks. Who knew that the passing game would break open for Seattle after the injury to their best target (Jimmy Graham)?
Seahawks 28 – Vikings 21
Green Bay Packers -1 @ Washington Redskins
Plain and simple, the Packers are the better team. The Redskins are in the Playoffs because they played in the worst division in football. The only team that I would make the Redskins a favorite over is the Houston Texans. But, there is a reason that they play the games.
The Packers have disappointed a lot of people this year. They have vastly underachieved. But, they are in the Playoffs and as they say, are 0-0 entering the 2nd season. I expect the Packers to find a way to turn things around. Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy are a dynamic duo and an offense led by those two shouldn’t be as stagnant as it has been. I expect them to find a rhythm this week against Washington.
When it comes down to it, it is about the players on the field. The Packers have elite players, the Redskins don’t. I think this one is the easiest bet of the week.
Packers 30 – Redskins 17
| Wins | Losses | Push | Percentage | |
| Week One | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40% |
| Week Two | 4 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Week Three | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20% |
| Week Four | 4 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Week Five | 3 | 1 | 1 | 70% |
| Week Six | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40% |
| Week Seven | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40% |
| Week Eight | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20% |
| Week Nine | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20% |
| Week Ten | 3 | 2 | 0 | 60% |
| Week Eleven | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40% |
| Week Twelve | 3 | 2 | 0 | 60% |
| Week Thirteen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Week Fourteen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 80% |
| Week Fifteen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 60% |
| Week Sixteen | 2 | 3 | 0 | 40% |
| Week Seventeen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 60% |
| OVERALL | 44 | 40 | 1 | 52% |
*All betting lines provided by Bovada.LV on the Thursday preceding particular NFL week.
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