Breaking Vegas With Garrett Thornton – Week 13

Five weeks of the NFL regular season. This is basically playoff time for Breaking Vegas and I am ready to step my game up. My goal from the beginning has been to finish over 50% for the year. That means I need to go at least 15-10 in the next 25 selections. That’s 3-2 each week.

How ‘bout I start that playoff with push with a 5-0 week? Sounds good to me.

One of the overriding themes of the NFL this late in the season is injuries. There are a lot of teams that are riddled with injuries and you never know what to expect from that second tier of players. Perfect example of that is the New England Patriots.

Seen by many as the league’s most untouchable team for most of the season, the Patriots were severely crippled by injuries on both sides of the ball last Sunday night when they played in Denver.  I had picked the Patriots to win that game, simply because I didn’t trust Brock Osweiler, but injuries to key playmakers threw that game into a tailspin for the Pats.

Heading into this homestretch of the season, there are a few teams, similar to the Patriots, that you simply can’t trust based on the injuries that they have faced this season. Packers, Cowboys, Steelers, Chargers… Just to name a few.

Onto the picks!

Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills +3

Remember at the beginning of the season when the Bills were everyone’s dark horse Super Bowl team and the Texans were one of the worst teams in the league? Yeah, seems like forever ago. The Texans have really turned things around and have made themselves contenders in a very winnable AFC South. The Bills have disappeared and been hampered by injuries. The big difference in this game is weather. The Texans travel north the Buffalo in December. Never a good recipe for the Texans. Luckily it is supposed to be a mild 40 degrees at kickoff. But that will still favor the Bills. I look for this to be a close, sloppy, ugly football game. Bills 16 – Texans 14

San Francisco 49ers +7.5 @ Chicago Bears

These are two teams that are so bipolar week to week that I hate to touch either of them. The thing that attracted me to this game was the more-than-a-touchdown line. The Niners have turned things around a bit since they sat Colin Kaepernick. The Bears have been playing some good football but are still a very average team. Each of these teams seem to wake up on Sunday morning, flip a coin, and then decide whether to try or not. The 49ers have more to prove, in my opinion, as they have been written off all year. It looks like San Francisco might have a few of the leadership issues worked out and I think they go into Chicago and give the Bears a battle. Bears 24 – 49ers 21

Arizona Cardinals -6 @ St. Louis Rams

These Cardinals are dang good. If there is any team in the NFC that can go into Carolina in January and beat the Panthers, it is the Cardinals. Their defense is unreal, they are led by a veteran quarterback, and Bruce Arians is as cool as a cucumber. This team is for real and ready to win the NFC North, going away. The dominance of the Seahawks in the West is over and the Cardinals can prove that with a dominant win in St. Louis to grab Arizona’s 10^th win of the season! Cardinals 38 – Rams 14

Seattle Seahawks -1 @ Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are a good team that wants to be a great team. The Seahawks are a good team that used to be a great team. The Seahawks are going to feel the sting of losing Jimmy Graham, but will find ways to score on a good Minnesota defense. I feel like this is the game that the Seattle defense lives up to their reputation and shuts down Adrian Pederson. The Seahawks have always been able to get up for a challenge like AP. If the Seahawks want to stay in a Wild Card position this is almost a must win game. Look for the Seahawks to look like the dominant defense that won a Super Bowl two years ago. Seahwaks 24 – Vikings 13

Upset Special of the Week:

Ney York Jets @ New York Giants +2.5

The New York Jets go on the road to… New York. This is a battle that is always worth watching. Neither team seems to like each other. The fan bases despise each other. And it seems like every time they meet it is a must win game for one or both of the teams.  This year it is a must win game for the Giants. After an embarrassing loss to the Washington Redskins where Eli Manning reverted back to his interception throwing alter ego, the Giants need a get-right game ASAP. Enter the New York Jets. Always seen as the little brother, the Jets have surprised some people this year with a fierce defense and an actually decent offense. Still, the Giants are the more talented, more experienced, and better coached team that is hungry and needs a win. Giants 42 – Jets 31

*All betting lines provided by Bovada.LV on the Thursday preceding particular NFL week.