Breaking Vegas With Garrett Thornton – Week Two

If you were to bat .400 in the major leagues, you would be given a $200 million contract and be lauded as a hero.

When you go 2 for 5 in Week One of the NFL season with your Breaking Vegas picks, you are mocked as a hack.

I am motivated to bounce back strong this week.

Last week I missed on a couple close games. I took the Cowboys as a 6 point favorite. They were without the best receiver in the league for the majority of the game and let turnovers continually kill them. I took Seattle as a 4.5 point favorite. We all know how that game turned out. Seattle blew it down the stretch and made key mistakes in Overtime. And I took the Lions as a 3 point underdog. Somehow when I made that pick I forgot just how horrendous Matthew Stafford can be on the road.

This week I vow to be better… My five picks for the week…

Arizona Cardinals -2.5 @ Chicago Bears

Matt Forte really gave that Chicago offense some pop last week against the Packers. However Jay Cutler only completed 50% of his throws and looked to be severely lacking in offensive weapons. The Cardinals looked like a legitimate contender in the NFC beating up on the New Orleans Saints. This one is simple for me. Palmer > Cutler. Arizona D > Chicago D. Bruce Arians > John Fox.

New England Patriots -2.5 @ Buffalo Bills

The hype-machine is really churning when it comes to the Rex Ryan-led Buffalo Bills. A lot of folks in the national media seem to think that there may be a changing of the guard in the AFC East this season with the Bills overtaking the Patriots. Fat chance. As long as Tom Brady is able to lead the team, and Bill Belichick is the coach, the Patriots have a decided advantage. There is no doubt that Buffalo is a better team than they have been in the past few years but they are still overshadowed by the Patriots in the AFC East. The Patriots win this game by a touchdown.

Tennessee Titans -1 @ Cleveland Browns

Aloha Marcus vs. Johnny Football. The two were almost teammates at Oregon and will be a matchup to watch this week in the NFL. Normally I have a tough time betting on rookie quarterbacks winning on the road. But Mariota is different. Last week Marcus Mariota had a perfect QB Rating of 158.3, completing 13 of 16 passes for 209 yards and 4 TDs. Manziel, on the other hand took over for an injured Josh McCown. Manziel managed a QB rating of 75.3, completing 13 of 24 passes for 182 yards and 1 TD. The difference, Manziel threw 1 interception, fumbled the ball 2 times, and was sacked 3 times. Mariota has the edge at quarterback, has more weapons, and a defense that was flying around against Tampa. This game will be close, but Mariota and the Titans win by a field goal.

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers -3.5

Sorry Seahawks fans, but the Packers are just a better team right now. Aaron Rodgers and the Pack took about a half of football against the Bears to get things going. In that second half, however, they looked like they were in midseason form. The Seahawks lost an Overtime game to an inferior team with a tough defense. It can be written off that it was Week One and that things will get better, but I think there are deeper issues in that Seattle locker room. Not only does the Kam Chancellor hold-out impact that defense, there are now questions and rumblings about the offensive play calling. Coach Pete Carroll, who is known for keeping distractions out of the locker room, really needs to work his magic if the Seahawks think they can go to Lambeau and beat a Packers team that is out for revenge.

Upset Special of the Week:

Atlanta Falcons +2 @ New York Giants

The old adage says, “Never let a game beat you twice.” The New York Giants are going to do just that. After their embarrassing melt-down in Dallas on Sunday Night Football, the Giants are likely to come out against the Falcons and lay an egg. All week there has been bickering and second-guessing in the media about whose fault the loss was, who should have score, what Coach Coughlin wanted, etc. The Giants need to stop pointing fingers and get in a scouting report. The Falcons are a much-improved team. Their defense looks solid, with a good pass rush. Tevin Coleman looks like he may be a solid running back with a lot of room for development. And Matt Ryan has targets all over the field, with Julio Jones entering his prime. The Giants’ heads will really be spinning when they find themselves 0-2 to start the season.

*All betting lines provided by Bovada.LV on the Thursday preceding particular NFL week.