The name is so familiar to any hoops fan. There was not a single basketball fan who didn’t become dumbfounded with the young Jimmer Fredette during the 2010-2011 college basketball season. As a senior at BYU, Fredette became the face of college basketball as he would pull up from five feet behind the three-point line on a consistent basis and knock it down more times than not. There were games where he literally could not be stopped, and he would show ridiculous range that many said they had never seen before. He didn’t become the most marketable player in the college game by blocking shots in transition or throwing down highlight-reel dunks; he did it by simply not being able to miss despite often being double and even triple teamed.
Fredette left BYU as one of the most decorated players in the history of college basketball. The Naismith Award, being named national player of the year, and being named a First Team All-American were just a few of the honors Fredette received in 2011. The next step was the NBA, and Fredette entered with more mixed opinions than any other prospect.
On one end of the spectrum, you had one of the most lethal scorers the college game had ever seen, but on the other hand, you had a nonathletic player who was a very bad defender in college and turned the ball over a lot. The two teams tied to Fredette the most throughout the whole process were Sacramento and Milwaukee, and in a draft day trade, Sacramento moved down a few slots to take Fredette with the tenth overall pick.
Fredette’s NBA career has most certainly been a disappointment after two seasons. He’s been very inconsistent; in one game, he’ll show flashes of being the dominant scorer he was in college, and then he’ll follow that up with a string of games where he can’t even post double-digits. In fact, the player Sacramento took with the 60th overall pick, Isaiah Thomas, has been the much better PG. Many people have already begun to write Fredette off as a bust, but I’m still a believer. I think he’s going to be very successful, whether it’s in Sacramento or somewhere else.
Between Tyreke Evans and Isaiah Thomas, Fredette has struggled to see consistent minutes. He played 18.6 minutes a game as a rookie, and that dropped to only 14 minutes a game in his sophomore campaign. Fredette was the third best PG on Sacramento’s roster, so it’s hard to get consistent minutes in this case. On numerous occasions, he’d come in, miss his first few shots, and struggle to get back out on the floor due to Thomas and Evans controlling most of the minutes at PG for Sacramento.
Fredette will function best as a sixth man who can come in off the bench and turn the tide of a game with his deadly shooting, sort of like J.J. Redick. Year three will be the year Jimmer shows that he can be a very solid role player for years to come in this league. The main reason for this: Tyreke Evans probably won’t be returning to Sacramento. Either that, or Fredette will get traded. Whichever happens, Fredette is in prime position to breakout in the 2013-2014 season.
With the departure of Evans, Fredette can become the second best PG on the Kings and hopefully will be able to ease into the role as a sixth man. If this happens, and he gets around 20-25 minutes per game, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to average at least 11 points per game while shooting around 45%. Keep in mind that J.J. Redick’s first two years were also very underwhelming, and he and Fredette possess similar skill sets. It just took him a while to find his role and ease into it; once Fredette finds his role, he’ll begin to regain confidence and improve upon his game.
There are definitely some positives to focus on. Fredette’s PER was really good last year at 14.66, and he saw an increase in both his field goal percentage (38.6 to 42.1) and three-point percentage (36.1 to 41.7).
It was reported a few days ago the Kings are still heavily shopping DeMarcus Cousins and want to get rid of him this summer. With new ownership coming in, there’s a lot of speculation that the Kings want to clear out a good portion of their roster and try to build a team from the ground up. Jimmer could definitely be on the trading block, and that could be exactly what he needs.
While I still think he would have success in Sacramento, a change of scenery could be perfect for a player like Fredette. The perfect fit for Jimmer would be Memphis, and with his value as low as it’ll probably be right now, a team like the Grizzlies could definitely make a play for him this summer.
Memphis is already one of the best teams in the league and is coming off a birth in the Western Conference Finals, but what they sorely lack is an elite outside shooter. In Memphis, Fredette could come in right away and be their sixth man surrounded by very good players that would get him great looks. Fredette would thrive in Memphis, and he fits their biggest need. There are multiple other teams that could also definitely use him, but Memphis just seems like the ideal team for Fredette to play for.
Whether in Sacramento, Memphis, or elsewhere, I think in year three Jimmer breaks out and shows that he’s going to have a very solid career in the NBA. He’s a motivated hard worker who lives in the gym; combine that with his elite scoring skills, and there’s no way he’s going to end up being a bust. He’s coming. Year Three: the breakout year of Jimmer Fredette.
Predicted 2013-2014 Stats: 11.1 PPG, 2.2 APG, 46.1% FG, 43.7% 3P
By Brian Emory
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