Before the season started I did a Q&A here with Brian of Reds blog Chris Sabo’s Goggles. There’s a link in that post to a companion piece at his site. As MLB records currently stand, it looks like I was painfully overvaluing the Brewers, predicting an 80-82 finish. Brian was more realistic in his evaluation of the Reds, predicting 74-88.
Entering Wednesday’s action, the Brewers are 45-63 and sit five games behind the Reds (48-56). Despite all of the Reds’ issues this year — injuries, poor performance, trades — they’ve managed to keep the Brew Crew in their rearview mirror. The Reds’ ability to remain ahead of the Brewers shows how tough it’s been during Milwaukee’s 2015 season.
In any event, I thought it was time that I check in with Brian and see how he’s handled the disappointment of the Reds’ season. Cincinnati and Milwaukee are in very similar boats right now.
Both have franchise players tied up in long-term deals that include a ton of money (Joey Votto and Ryan Braun).
Both traded valuable pieces at the trade deadline, although the Reds shipped out pure rentals (Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake). The Brewers shipped out a combination of rentals (Aramis Ramirez, Gerardo Parra, Jonathan Broxton too, essentially) and players under club control beyond this season (Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers).
Both had additional pieces they could’ve moved at the trade deadline, but chose to hold, at least until the offseason.
Both have payrolls over $100 million for under-performing squads in 2015, and both have core groups of players whose futures are murky because of the general entropy of the team’s direction.
Both have stayed away from the term “rebuild,” but both need to tap some serious creativity to address their myriad problems.
With those similarities in mind, I posed some questions to Brian. His responses reveal the disillusionment and resignation that can set in when a team flounders for too long. Both franchises have a long road ahead to respectability and competitiveness.
TBB: As a Reds fan, how do you feel the team did at the trade deadline?
Walt Jocketty is calling the moves a “reboot” rather than a “rebuild.” Whatever he wants to call it, it’s going to be years before the Reds are competitive again. Every Reds fan knew this day was coming, so it’s hard to be upset, but it’s frustrating to know that — once again — the team is starting over. Apparently the prospects we got in return (especially in the Leake deal) are pretty solid, but they’re just that — prospects. Some people are complaining that the Reds didn’t trade Chapman and Bruce, but I honestly think they’ll get more in return if those players are dangled in the offseason. And they will be dangled.
I think I had the Reds winning 70-something games, so they’re more or less on pace with my expectations. Losing Bailey and Mesoraco, and having Bruce be a non-factor for almost three months, certainly didn’t help. Four of the five pitchers from the Reds’ starting rotation last year are now gone, and the fifth is out until mid-season, recovering from Tommy John. It’s only going to get worse.
I’ve watched precisely one Home Run Derby and All-Star Game, and that’s when the game was at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago in 2003 and I had tickets. I just don’t care about it. Even though the game was in Cincinnati this year, I wasn’t going to be around to watch the All-Star Game and I hadn’t planned on watching the Home Run Derby. I think I was bored while watching True Detective, so I looked on my phone and saw that Frazier had advanced past the first round. I watched him hit in the second round, and was completely captivated by the final round. The time limit was a stroke of genius and MLB would be fools to get rid of it. Will it make me more likely to watch the Home Run Derby in the future, probably not, but the new format works.
The Reds still have a decent core of offensive players. If Mesoraco and Cozart come back next year healthy, that’s a good start. The young pitchers the Reds have thrown out there recently have shown glimpses, but they’re still really young, and young pitching staffs scare me. Depending on what the Reds do in the offseason I can see the team wallowing in the middle of the division for at least the next few years.
1. Trade Chapman. If you’re not a contender, having a 102 MPH-throwing closer is a novelty act.2. Find a long-term solution for LF. Whether it’s Mesoraco or Frazier or a free agent — just find somebody.3. Start stocking up the minors. The Reds are never going to be able to compete in free agency, so they need the pieces in house to either build from within or to trade away for MLB-ready players.
You’re asking a person who stopped paying attention to the games a couple of months ago. I’m hardly a fair-weather fan (I started Chris Sabo’s Goggles in 2008 when the Reds were terrible), but I just don’t have the time to pay attention to a team that isn’t doing anything. I suppose it would be easier if I still lived in Cincinnati, but right now I’m too busy trying to figure out what the hell is going on in True Detective.
I, for one, was pleased that Brewers GM Doug Melvin took steps to get solid prospects in return for Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers. If Melvin had gone with the minimalist approach of Reds GM Walt Jocketty, he would have traded only Ramirez and Parra. In my opinion, that would have slowed any “retooling” or “rebooting,” which the Brewers sorely need. The Brewers needed to restock the system with significant moves at the trade deadline this year and get the process moving. Melvin did a good job of that.
Both the Reds and Brewers have dealt with injuries this season, but the Reds have had it worse with catcher Mesoraco and shortstop Cozart missing tons of time, not to mention Homer Bailey’s Tommy John surgery. All of those players are out for the year.
Like the Reds, the Brewers have a strong group of controlled core players, including Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy and Jean Segura. That group would be stronger if Segura was hitting better and the team still had Carlos Gomez, obviously.But it’s conceivable that the Brewers could compete with the Reds for the middle of the NL Central division next year if their veteran core and young reinforcements are up to the challenge. Clearly, no one should expect too much from Milwaukee next season but it’s amazing what not hitting the self-destruct button in April and May will do for a team.
Brian’s checklist for the start of the 2016 season has a reflection on the Brewers’ side, too. In Milwaukee’s case, that might mean that the Brewers should:
1. Trade Adam Lind; he’s a luxury on a “rebooting” team.
2. Find out who can stick in the outfield, at first and third bases.
3. Continue to stock the farm system through the draft and trades, and start to rely on the farm system for players, rather than free agency.
Finally, I don’t blame Brian at all for mentally checking out this season. I did that last year as the Brewers melted down in late August and September. After building up my enthusiasm heavily over the course of the season, it was dangerous to my mental health to continue watching Brewers baseball. Sometimes it’s best to just get away from it all.
After the Brewers’ improved play in July and the excitement surrounding the trade deadline, it’s now time to relax and enjoy Brewers baseball without the anxiety of “will they or won’t they.” The team may make a trade or two in August. If it happens, it happens. If not, the offseason will be here soon enough and the team can continue its “reorganization” under what will presumably be a new GM.
In other words, the summer is fleeting and our time on this rock is finite. I’ve been paying so much attention to the Brewers over the last month that I’ve had the opposite affliction as Brian. I have fallen way behind in True Detective. Perhaps I need to take a break from the Crew for a few days and catch up on the five or six episodes I’ve DVR’d. Maybe the narrative will start to make more sense to me.
Don’t forget to enjoy the summer, folks.
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