Francisco Rodriguez Expected To Sign Soon http://t.co/YqfdO46fr3
— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) February 24, 2015
Much has been said about Francisco (“K-Rod”) Rodriguez this offseason, and most of it has been critical of his many home runs given up during the 2014 season. While K-Rod did give up an unsavory 14 home runs last year in 68 innings, that number, despite any decline in velocity, would seem to be an aberration rather than a new norm.
TPOT (or, Twenty Pitches of Terror) hadn’t surrendered that many long balls since 2003, only his second year in the majors. Further, his HR / Flyball ratio, while grotesque at over 23%, was nearly double anything he’d put up in his career. Are we to believe that some ugly peripheral numbers mean that the Brewers shouldn’t sign K-Rod again?
No.
Clearly, K-Rod isn’t the pitcher he was in 2008 when he put up 62 saves. But even at 33, he’s an effective pitcher with numerous pitches that can get MLB hitters out. Plus, K-Rod has an incredible amount of experience in the big leagues and the knowledge that comes with that. Sure, there’s a lot of mileage on his arm but he hasn’t dealt with really any injury issues in his career. He knows how to trick hitters into striking out. He doesn’t put up clean innings, but the Brewers could definitely use him in the pen in 2015.
Obviously, no one wants to see K-Rod soak up $10 million of Mark Attanasio’s money this year or next. That’s a ton of cash to drop on a pitcher who, admittedly, could run into a wall at any time. The Brewers’ front office has done a remarkable job thus far in not biting on the offers of Scott Boras to sign either K-Rod or fellow client Rafael Soriano.
On the flipside, Brewers GM Doug Melvin has reportedly flirted with the idea of acquiring Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon. It doesn’t take a genius to realize that giving up prospects and taking on money for Papelbon is not the smartest plan for a team like Milwaukee. K-Rod would cost only money, and if he has a good year and the Brewers don’t, he could be flipped later on.
Conversely, the Brewers are in no position to deal prospects for Papelbon. His character issues aside, he may come with a guaranteed option for 2016 (regardless of which club pays for it). That would mean should Melvin acquire Papelbon and then want to deal him, he would have to find another club willing to take on big-time money to acquire the closer.
For what it’s worth, over at Fangraphs, the Steamer projections for K-Rod in 2015 see various levels of improvement and regression. It sees K-Rod’s WHIP and BABIP (.289) rising, but his HR/9 rate dropping by over 50% to under one homer per nine. Steamer also projects K-Rod’s LOB% to drop from 93% in 2014 all the way to 74% in 2015, which seems somewhat unlikely. That 74% would be among the lowest of K-Rod’s career.
BABIP probably is not terrifically important for a closer. When K-Rod had 62 saves in 2008, his BABIP was .292, so that didn’t stop him from nailing down the saves. Steamer likely would be correct in projecting K-Rod’s unwieldy 2014 home runs per nine innings to drop this year for the simple likelihood that it’d be doubtful to continue at such an ugly rate give his ability to limit the long ball to reasonable levels in the past.
K-Rod would, no doubt, be more effective when giving up fly balls at a canyon of a stadium like Marlins Park. But it seems that if the Marlins were going to sign K-Rod they would’ve done it already. The Brewers appear more likely to make a late move for their former pitcher. The market for K-Rod and Soriano have been pretty odd this winter. With pitchers and catchers already in camp, it’s bizarre that both are unemployed. Nevertheless, K-Rod has been signed late by Milwaukee in the past (he was signed in April in 2013 and February in 2014).
If the Brewers had a situation in 2015 like they did in 2011, with a very strong team that included the likes of Zack Greinke and a healthy Prince Fielder, perhaps gambling on Papelbon would make some sense. But that is not their reality. Milwaukee would be much wiser to negotiate a middle ground on a one-year deal for K-Rod for 2015. That way they aren’t obligated to give up young talent or pay K-Rod past this season. Perhaps they could tack on an option for 2016 based on incentives.
Opponents of a K-Rod signing often discuss Jim Henderson and Chris Perez, two former closers in Brewers camp who are healthy according to media reports. However, no one should count on Henderson or Perez quite yet, including club officials. If both make it healthy to Opening Day, great, that’ll only improve their depth. But just think how much deeper the bullpen would be with Broxton, K-Rod and Henderson and Perez. Throw in Will Smith and a revitalized Brandon Kintzler and the team would have significant firewalls to any imploding reliever crisis.
Principal owner Mark Attanasio hinted at a possible late addition at the fan event Brewers On Deck. Since then, nothing major has happened, the Perez addition notwithstanding. Apologists for the Brewers’ payroll and K-Rod doubters may scoff at what Boras and K-Rod want, but to be fair, K-Rod has been a very productive pitcher for the Brewers in the past and sometimes they’ve gotten him for “cheap.” The Brewers paid him under $4 million in 2014 to record 44 saves in a crucial role when Henderson was injured. He also represented Milwaukee in the All-Star Game, whatever that’s worth.
K-Rod is not the perfect answer to Milwaukee’s remaining bullpen questions. I don’t suggest they pay him $10 million for the 2015 season. If that’s truly the going rate, they’d be better off not spending that kind of money because the Brewers have other problems with the roster and they aren’t one player away from a World Series.
But if they could get K-Rod for a base of, say, $5 million plus kickers for incentives, that would be a good deal for Milwaukee. They could conceivably take a look at Soriano instead as a setup guy, but that contract would have to be much lower than a potential K-Rod deal, if only because Milwaukee is familiar with K-Rod and he’s had better numbers recently.
With any luck we’ll hear news about a K-Rod addition within the next 24 hours. It wouldn’t be shocking to see the Brewers give him $7 or 8 million on a one-year deal. No one likes to “overpay,” but K-Rod would bring a lot of depth to the Milwaukee pen. He’s not a model citizen, certainly, with his off-the-field issues. But he would bring experience and ability to a Brewers pen that right now is counting on rebound from injury and a sizable amount of hope.
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