With the Milwaukee Brewers out of the race to the playoffs for the entire season, fans understandably are a bit anxious as the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline approaches. With a lame-duck season, many have waited patiently but with great curiosity to find out if the club would finally face reality and move players at the deadline. And if so, who would be moved?
The NL Central division is unforgiving, and the Brewers seemingly need to sell assets for young talent to rebuild for the future, a future in which they could launch a serious attempt to compete for the division title.
The Brewers actually were on the first wave of this slow-starting trade season when they dealt third baseman Aramis Ramirez to Pittsburgh. But since then, Doug Melvin and company have been quiet, presumably sorting through their options and scouting reports. But are they also being stubborn on the potential returns in trades?
The silence on the Brewers’ end hasn’t stopped the national media from speculating on players such as first baseman Adam Lind, outfielders Carlos Gomez and Gerardo Parra, shortstop Jean Segura, starting pitcher Mike Fiers and relievers Neal Cotts and K-Rod.
Some reporters, such as FOX Sports columnist Ken Rosenthal, have relayed information indicating the Brewers’ asking price may be prohibitively high for a player like Gomez.
Rival exec: “I don’t think MIL is really looking to trade Gomez. Price is VERY high — think they’re hoping to get blown away.”
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 28, 2015
In fact, even a local writer seems a bit surprised that a player such as Parra, who continues to knock the cover off the ball, hasn’t been moved.
#Brewers asking price for Gerardo Parra obviously high for him to still be on team.
— Tom (@Haudricourt) July 29, 2015
Unlike A’s GM Billy Beane, who has gotten out in front of the market and traded players like Scott Kazmir (the first big domino to fall) and super-utility man Ben Zobrist, Melvin has waited in the weeds other than parting with Ramirez. Of course, this strategy could pay off, as teams may become more desperate as the non-waiver cutoff approaches.
On the other hand, this method could backfire on the Brewers. As other clubs decide to sell, the market becomes more flooded with available players. Additionally, more sellers means fewer buyers.
The Brewers clearly shouldn’t sell cheaply on players like Parra and Gomez. But they also shouldn’t delude themselves into thinking they are merely a year or two away from making a run in the division. If this season has shown us anything, it’s that the Brewers are light years away from the caliber of teams put out on the field by the likes of Kansas City and St. Louis, the Missourian kings of the baseball world. The Brewers can’t even hang with the Reds, who are 10 games under .500, although they’re close to putting Cincinnati in the division basement.
I have to side with the idea of a total rebuild, not a “reset,” as Adam McCalvy suggested the Brewers were eyeing yesterday on MLB Network. A “reset” would put them back at what they’ve been: mostly a mediocre team relying too heavily on free agents from other teams. The worst thing to be in sports is mediocre, yet the tone of comments from the Brewers organization is that they think so highly of themselves that they thoroughly believe they can bounce back in a year or two.
My challenge to those notions is simple. What proof is there that the Brewers can quickly restore some mythical level of competitiveness? Doug Melvin likes to reference how many 80-win seasons the club has accumulated under his management, among the tops in baseball. But what do 80-some-win seasons get you? Nothing!
Seasons with around 80 wins mean no playoffs (usually) and not much in draft picks. The idea that Melvin has floated that the Brewers have been competitive in most Septembers is a joke and an insult to the fans’ collective intelligence. They have not been in it much at all, with the exceptions of 2008 and 2011. The former, thanks to a monumental collapse by the Mets, was a damn miracle. Besides 2008 and 2011, the Brewers have finished with no more than 83 wins in a season since 1992!
Nathan Petrashek of Cream City Cables has it right. If the Brewers are simply puffing up their resistance publicly, playing hard to get, that’s one thing. But if they are thinking of keeping Carlos Gomez because they believe they can compete next year, then the Brewers are doubling down on a bad situation. I’m not sure how Carlos Gomez’s value will be any higher in the offseason, unless he has a remarkably productive August and September.
The same goes for Adam Lind. Lind also is controllable next season, but unless Melvin can work out better trades for he and Gomez in the offseason, there’s little logic in waiting to trade those players. The Brewers aren’t going to be competitive again with Lind and Gomez on the roster unless Mark Attanasio decides to double the payroll heading into 2016.
Doug Melvin has a pretty good track record when it comes to trading veteran assets for young players. But perhaps Melvin is loathe to make big moves in what presumably will be his last year calling the shots in Milwaukee.
Maybe the Brewers figure that unless they’re blown away by offers this month, they will wait until a new GM is in place who can trade players like Lind and Gomez for what he deems is the appropriate return. The problem with that scenario is that players could get injured in the interim, and their value could very possibly drop from a lack of production the rest of the season and lesser club control.
Melvin’s mind games are working wonders. I’m starting to think it’s possible he doesn’t trade Parra by Friday and instead hangs on to him in some bizarre effort to revamp the club for next season. Surely Parra isn’t worth a qualifying offer of around $16 million for one season, but maybe Melvin thinks Parra would sign with the Brewers as a free agent? Perhaps that’s what Melvin’s aim has been all along: to misdirect and confuse as he targets his top choices in potential trades.
For me, regardless of whatever is said publicly, the Brewers need to shed veteran assets. Melvin has admitted that the Brewers like to wait a long time to promote players to make sure they’re fully developed and ready for the big leagues. But that strategy has produced an over-reliance and a bloated obsession with veterans.
If we could start the 2013 or 2014 seasons over again with Adam Lind as the first baseman, that might make sense. However, in 2015, the Brewers need to move these veterans on to greener pastures and stock the farm system. Let the hungry, young guys play and prove themselves, or not. The Brewers’ reluctance to promote young players to Milwaukee could be seen as patient and measured. It could also be seen as wasting prime years of young talent while a team like St. Louis thrives with reinforcements from the minor leagues.
Above all else, the Brewers shouldn’t pretend band-aids are needed for mortal wounds on the current club. In recent years other teams have proven that it’s possible to rebound quickly in baseball, but the best and most assured way to do so is by making smart trades and accumulating young prospects who can become the foundation for a new era.
It’s bad enough for the great fans in an underrated baseball town like Milwaukee (and by extension, the state of Wisconsin) to suffer through yet another miserable season and worry about the composition of the roster and the farm system. It’s another can of worms for them to have to fret about the competency and intent of the front office and ownership as well.
The Brewers need to quit screwing around and implement a plan to win. Not just one year but consistently. It’s hard to take a club seriously when they have no successors at first base, third base or center field. The Brewers seem to make reactionary moves and even some of their reactions are of the stunted and delayed variety.
The Brewers have made one real run at the World Series since 1982. We are worse than Cubs fans, folks. True gluttons for punishment.
https://twitter.com/TLRCoozy/status/626119389331484672
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