Week Ten Recap

Week Ten had its share of head scratchers, as has virtually every week this season.

Although I picked the Cleveland Browns to cover at Cincinnati last Thursday night, I certainly didn’t expect the Browns to roll into Paul Brown Stadium and crush their in-state rivals, making the case that Ben Hoyer is the man in Cleveland, not LeBron James.

I took the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover in London against the Dallas Cowboys, but had to lock in that pick before it was confirmed Tony Romo would play. With Romo in the lineup, the -6.5 for the Cowboys seemed too little, as it proved to be, 31-17.

The New Orleans Saints lost at home for the first time in 11 games to the San Francisco 49ers, which I didn’t expect. And, what was the deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers, losing to the New York Jets, albeit in New York?

Overall, I was 8-5 in week 10, and 3-2 in the column, missing both the Seattle Seahawks and 49ers games for the second straight week. For the season, my record improved to 48.9%, which is actually just one game under .500.

Slightly Different Metrics

This week, and going forward, instead of using Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), I’ll be using weighted DVOA, which places a little greater emphasis on more recent games, in order to reflect how a team is playing now, as opposed to earlier in the season.

The other statistics I’m looking at for these picks are the teams’ absolute point differential, the Elo rating system, and QBR, as the quarterback is presumably the most important player for each team.

For a more in depth explanation of weighted DVOA, go to Football Outsiders, and for details on the Elo rating system, please see FiveThirtyEight.

This Week’s Picks

I’ll be focusing on the NFC West and the Sunday night and Monday night games, which gives us six games this week. To follow all my picks, or pick against me, go to ESPN’s Pigskin Pick’em. I’m Brian Hight OSN Picks in the Fans of Seattle Seahawks (spread) group.

Seattle (6-3) at Kansas City (6-3) -1

After covering for the first time in four games against the New York Giants, the Seattle Seahawks find themselves underdogs for the first time this season at the Kansas City Chiefs.

Weighted DVOA gives the Seahawks a slight advantage over the Chiefs of 5.9%, with Seattle ranked 5^th at 19.4% and Kansas City ranked 8^th at 13.4%. In terms of matchups, the Seahawks have the 5^th most efficient offense going against the Chiefs 16^th most efficient defense. Going the other way, KC ranks 11^th in offensive efficiency against the 7^th most efficient defense in the Legion of Boom.

While Seattle is the more efficient team, Kansas City has managed to translate their efficiency into a greater margin of victory, with a +66 point differential compared to the Seahawks +49.

Russell Wilson beats out Alex Smith in QBR by a slim margin: 60.1 to 55.9.

Elo Ratings rate this game as a pick’em, with Kansas City winning the game 49% of the time and Seattle winning 51% of the time.

So, while Seattle has the advantage in overall weighted DVOA, offensive and defensive weighted DVOA matchups, QBR, and Elo, Kansas City has point differential, home field, and the fact that Seattle will be playing the early game after travelling east, to its advantage.

This one is tough, but I’m sticking with numbers and banking on the Seahawks motivation to get a quality win on the road.

Pick – Seattle Seahawks

Denver (7-2) -10 at St. Louis (3-6)

If you ever had any doubts that the Denver Broncos could go on the road and crush an inferior team, the 41-17 drubbing of the Oakland Raiders last week, that saw Peyton Manning sit out the fourth quarter after throwing five touchdown passes, should serve as a reminder. Denver was favored by 11.5 and covered easily. I expect the same this week in St. Louis.

Denver holds a huge 54.1% advantage in weighted DVOA over the St. Louis Rams, 36.7% to -17.4$.

The Broncos are 1^st in overall efficiency, 1^st in offensive efficiency, and 2^nd in defensive efficiency. The Rams, on the other hand, are 26^th, 26^th, and 24^th, respectively. The only advantage the Rams have is on special teams, where they rank 18^th to the Broncos 25^th.

The absolute point differential between these two teams is 172, with Denver outscoring their opponents by +84 and St. Louis being outscored -88.

Peyton Manning is the only quarterback in the NFL with a QBR in the 80’s at 84.7. And we just learned this week that the Rams will be going back to Shaun Hill at QB, with his 25.3 QBR, replacing Austin Davis and his 37.6 QBR.

The one cautionary stat here is that the Elo ratings have Denver at only -8.5, winning the game 72% of the time.

I’m expecting another huge game from Peyton Manning and hopefully the TD’s will go to my fantasy WR, Emanuel Sanders. I’m taking Denver.

Pick – Denver Broncos

San Francisco (5-4) -4 at NY Giants (3-6)

I incorrectly picked two games involving these two teams last week. The San Francisco 49ers upset the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome, 27-24 in OT, when they were 4.5 point underdogs. And I took the 9.5 with the New York Giants at Seattle and got burned 38-17.

I still don’t think the 49ers are very good, but I’m now convinced the Giants are terrible.

San Francisco holds a slim 5.4% weighted DVOA advantage, as they rank 15^th at -0.1%, while New York ranks 20^th with -5.5%.

Point differential goes to the 49ers also: -7 to -52.

I have no idea how Eli Manning maintains a 72.1 QBR, as his receivers couldn’t catch a cold. But, the advantage at QB goes to the Giants, as Colin Kaepernick continues to struggle with a 53.3 QBR.

Elo has the game exactly at -4 San Francisco, just like the actual line, and has the 49ers winning 64% of the time.

I will happily pick against the Giants, who I’ve gotten torched by repeatedly this season, but will not be surprised if they win the game.

Pick – San Francisco 49ers

Detroit (7-2) at Arizona (8-1) -2

The Detroit Lions versus the Arizona Cardinals game features a team I don’t believe in – the Lions – and a team I can’t explain – the Cardinals.

The Lions won their last two games going in to the bye week by a single point each: 24-23 over New Orleans and 22-21 over Atlanta. Last week, they needed another come from behind TD pass by Mathew Stafford to beat the Miami Dolphins 20-16. Instead of 7-2, Detroit could easily be 4-5.

The Cardinals, with the best record in the NFL at 8-1, continue to baffle me, as they are only the 15^th ranked team in terms of efficiency, with a weighted DVOA of 2.8%.

The advantage in overall efficiency goes to the Lions by 7.7%. The matchups will feature mediocre offenses against very good defenses. The Lions rank 1^st in defense and the Cardinals rank 5^th. But, the Lions come in at number 22 in offense, slightly ahead of the Cardinals at 25^th.

Arizona holds the points advantage: +53 to +40. And, counterintuitively, Drew Stanton leads Mathew Stafford in QBR: 67.7 to 59.4.

Elo gives the Cardinals a 6 point advantage and predicts an Arizona win 71% of the time.

I’m going with the inexplicable over the lucky and take Arizona.

Pick – Arizona Cardinals

New England (7-2) at Indianapolis (6-3) -3

This is the single closest game of the week in weighted DVOA, with the Indianapolis Colts holding a 1.8% advantage over the New England Patriots. The Colts rank 7^th with 14.5% and the Pats rank 9^th with 12.7%.

The similarities between the two teams don’t stop there. Indy ranks 8^th in offense, while New England ranks 9^th. The Patriots rank 3^rd in special teams and the Colts rank 5^th. As both teams are built on offense and revolve around superior quarterbacks, Andrew Luck and Tom Brady, you might expect a drop off in defense. But, it’s a similar drop off. The Colts rank 18^th while the Patriots rank 22^nd.

The Patriots point differential is +83 and the Colts is +79.

Brady beats out Luck slightly, with a QBR of 75.8 to Luck’s 72.9.

And, if it couldn’t get any closer, Elo favors the Patriots by -0.5 and has the Patriots winning 52% of the time.

All things being virtually equal, I’m going to go with the home team and take the Indianapolis Colts.

Pick – Indianapolis Colts

Pittsburgh (6-4) -6 at Tennessee (2-7)   

The Pittsburgh Steelers, with abysmal losses in week four to Tampa Bay and last week to the NY Jets, face another bad team in the Tennessee Titans on Monday night. So, the question is, will the Steelers team that dismantled Indianapolis and Baltimore show up, or will it be the version that couldn’t beat Tampa or the Jets?

On paper, this game isn’t close. The Steelers rank 11^th in weighted DVOA at 9.7%, whereas the Titans rank 29^th with -19.0%, for a 28.7% advantage to Pittsburgh.

The Steelers will throw the 3^rd ranked offense in the NFL against the 27^th ranked defense, and shouldn’t suffer too big of a liability with its 25^th ranked defense, as it is facing a Titans team that ranks 23^rd on offense.

For a six win team, the +22 point differential the Steelers hold is a bit slim, but it’s far better than Tennessee’s -79.

QBR goes to Big Ben 72.3 to Zach Mettenberger’s 24.8.

The Elo ratings take Pittsburgh -4 and a Steelers victory 65% of the time.

I’m going to look for Roethlisberger to be juicier and tastier than Mettenberger and lead the Steelers to a bounce back win.

Pick – Pittsburgh Steelers

As always, good luck to everyone and enjoy what should be a great weekend of football.