Finally! A week over .500. Albeit 8-7 overall and 3-2 in the column and on The Slant podcast, but over .500. My overall record for the season now stands at 34-42 for a .447 winning percentage.

The big trip ups for week five were the continued resurgence of the New York Giants, the mediocrity of the Chicago Bears, and Tommy and Bill finally getting on the same page in New England.

Picks that I’m most happy with from last week were taking the Browns +2 to beat Tennessee and picking Kansas City +7.5 to cover against the 49ers.

Correlations Beginning to Emerge?

Now that most teams have played five games, with a few having only played four, it appears that some correlations are beginning to emerge. This week, all but two of the favorites were also the more efficient team according to Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).

The Cleveland Browns, favored at home over the Pittsburgh Steelers by 2, have the 18^th ranked overall DVOA at 2.2%, compared to the Steelers who rank 11^th with 6.5%. And the Philadelphia Eagles, while having the 13^th ranked DVOA at 5.6%, are favored at home over the New York Giants by 2.5. The Giants have the 8^th ranked overall DVOA with 9.8%.

All the other favored teams have higher DVOA than their opponent, with Patriots / Bills game being the only game other than Browns / Steelers or Eagles / Giants with a closer absolute value between percentages of efficiency.

So, what does that all mean? My hypothesis is that as the sample of games continues to grow, DVOA will increasingly be a predictor of the Las Vegas line. It’s still to be determined if it will also be a predictor of the outcomes.

This Week’s Picks

In the column, I usually focus on the NFC West, the Sunday night game, and the Monday night game. This week with two NFC West teams, the 49ers and the Cardinals, playing on Monday night, I’m only going to be looking at four games total.

If you’d like to follow all my picks, go to ESPN Pigskin Pick’em. I’m under Brian Hight’s OSN Picks in the Fans of the Seattle Seahawks (spread) group.

For further explanation of the statistics I’m using, see my Week Two column or visit Football Outsiders on the web.

Dallas (4-1) at Seattle (3-1) -8

Just like MLB needs the Yankees and the Dodgers to be good and the NBA needs the Lakers and the Celtics to be good, the NFL needs the Dallas Cowboys to be good. Love em or hate em, a winning Cowboys team drives fan interest and media coverage.

But here’s the deal. I’m not so certain this Cowboys team is as good as its 4-1 record might suggest.

Much has been made of the Cowboys young and talented offensive line and the numbers bear that out. The Cowboys rank 3^rd in rushing DVOA. DeMarco Murray is 1^st in Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement at 135 and is 5^th in DVOA with 15.9%.

Overall the Cowboys have the 8^th most efficient offense in the NFL with an 11.1% mark.

But, they have two problems Sunday afternoon in Seattle.

1. The Seahawks rank 1^st in DVOA against the run.
2. The Cowboys have to play defense also.

If the Cowboys can run the ball effectively against the number one ranked run defense in the NFL, on the road, in a loud environment like Century Link, I’ll be willing to concede they are legit.

But, what I envision happening is the Seahawks, with the second most efficient offensive team in the league (which is mind boggling considering that Percy Harvin is still scoring touchdowns in DC and having them called back for penalties) crushing the Cowboys 24^th ranked defense.

Take the Seahawks at home and hope you don’t have to sweat a last minute field goal like last week to cover the 8 points.

Pick – Seattle Seahawks

Washington (1-4) at Arizona (3-1) -3.5

Apparently the Washington professional football team thinks their 27-17 loss to the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks on Monday night was a “moral victory.” They really shouldn’t be deluding themselves. A very sloppy Seahawks team had at least two touchdowns called back for penalties (and I’m not counting successive plays that would have scored only a single TD). The score could have easily been 35-17 or 42-17.

Now having said that, Arizona is not Seattle. The Cardinals rank 20^th in overall efficiency with a DVOA of 0.4%. But that’s still better than Washington who has a -8.1% DVOA to rank 23^rd overall.

Without Carson Palmer, Arizona has struggled offensively, ranking 24^th in offensive efficiency. That offense will be going up against the 18^th ranked defense.

On the flip side, Kirk Cousins will direct the 15^th ranked offense against the Cardinals 10^th ranked defense.

Given the defensive advantage for Arizona and the home field, I’m taking the Cardinals to win and cover.

Pick – Arizona Cardinals

New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia (4-1) -2.5

In this Sunday night matchup, assuming the Cowboys lose earlier in the day, the Giants and Eagles will be battling for 1^st place in the NFC East. I can’t decide if this division is suddenly much better than last year or if the schedule has been kind. I tend to lean towards the friendly schedule, so far.

As I mentioned above, this is one of two games where the less efficient team is favored. The Eagles rank 13^th in overall efficiency with a DVOA of 5.6%, while the Giants rank 8^th at 9.8%. But, the difference is only 4.2% and the -2.5 at home for Philly is less than what is normally afforded a home team that’s truly favored.

The Giants win both sides of the ball with the 14^th ranked offense matching up against the 16^th ranked defense, and the 7^th ranked defense matching up against the 22^nd ranked offense.

I’m going to take the Giants to win, which should please my colleague Brad on The Slant.

Pick – New York Giants

San Francisco (3-2) -3 at St. Louis (1-3)

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The San Francisco 49ers are only favored by 3 at St. Louis?

Well, the numbers sort of bear that out. San Francisco is only the 16^th most efficient team in the league, dragged down significantly by an 18^th ranked offense and special teams that rank 29^th.

What should work in the 49ers favor, though is their 6^th ranked defense matching up against the Rams 23^rd ranked offense. And, actually, the Rams are worse on defense than they are on offense, ranking 30^th.

I still think Jim Harbaugh and company are completely dysfunctional and I would not be surprised if the Rams win at home, but I’m going with the numbers and taking the 49ers.

Pick – San Francisco 49ers

One Big Reservation

My one big reservation for week six is that there are eight games where the most efficient team and the favored team is also the road team. I certainly don’t expect road teams to go 8-7 this week, but I’ll be picking quite a few.

As always, enjoy the games and don’t use this column for any retirement planning.