Taking Solace from the Sports Guy

I always love listening to Bill Simmons on the BS Report podcast. During his three week suspension from ESPN for calling NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell a liar about what he knew or didn’t know in the Ray Rice domestic violence incident, there was an empty space in my day.

So, I was especially pleased to hear Simmons and Cousin Sal complain about this totally unpredictable NFL season from a gambling perspective (we don’t gamble here – we just predict games) for well over ten minutes to begin Monday’s BS Report. They both went on and on about how they got killed last week and couldn’t figure the season out in general. What they didn’t mention, though, was their actual record.

And then it dawned on me, the key to making these picks, week in, week out, is to simply never reveal your record from the previous week. But, let’s just say that had I taken underdogs when the spread was double digits, it would have been a better week.  Stupid Seahawks. Stupid 49ers.

No, in all seriousness, I was 2-3 in the column last week and 6-7 overall, for 45.2% on the year against the spread. If I had taken the Oakland Raiders and St. Louis Rams to cover, it would have been 4-1 and 8-5, a pretty decent week, but I didn’t.

It’s safe to say, the Rams are driving me crazy, beating the Seattle Seahawks at home three weeks ago, getting killed by the Kansas City Chiefs in KC two weeks ago, and then turning around and upsetting the San Francisco 49ers on the road last week.

So, this week, the Rams go on the road to Arizona and are 7 point underdogs, and I just keep thinking a 49ers loss at New Orleans and another Rams upset and the NFC West gets really interesting.

This Week’s Picks

Okay, so, as usual I’ll be focusing on the NFC West and the Sunday night and Monday night games, which gives us five games this week. To follow all my picks, or pick against me, go to ESPN’s Pigskin Pick’em. I’m Brian Hight OSN Picks in the Fans of Seattle Seahawks (spread) group.

Last week, in addition to using team efficiency as measured by Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), I added plus or minus points on the year, QBR, and the Elo ranking system to my analysis. Since my source for Elo is FiveThiryEight and apparently there was an election or something this week, I don’t have that resource available. To substitute for Elo this week, and perhaps continue to incorporate in the future, I’ll be using each team’s record against the spread, favored or underdog, from this season.

For a more in depth explanation of DVOA, go to Football Outsiders, and for details on the Elo rating system, please see FiveThirtyEight.

San Francisco (4-4) at New Orleans (4-4) -5

The New Orleans Saints are the only team in the NFC South without a losing record and are looking like they have their mojo back. Playing in the Superdome, the Saints have won eleven straight. Despite a slow start this season, the Saints have improved to 2-5 against the spread (ATS) by winning and covering their last two contests when favored.

The San Francisco 49ers’ 4-4 record feels much different than New Orleans’ 4-4 record. While the Saints seem to be ascending, the 49ers’ season seems to be on the brink. A loss here could conceivably put them four games behind the Arizona Cardinals with seven to play.

The Saints are the more efficient team, ranking 11^th in overall DVOA at 7.9%, compared to the -5.0% 20^th place ranking for the 49ers. New Orleans is +29 points on the season, while San Francisco is -10. And Drew Brees far outshines Colin Kaepernick in QBR 74.4 to 52.8.

With the advantage in overall efficiency, point differential, QBR, and home field, I’m taking the Saints.

Pick – New Orleans Saints

St. Louis (3-5) at Arizona (7-1) -7

Is it just me, or do the Arizona Cardinals not entirely feel like a 7-1 team? Each week, I look at the numbers and say to myself, “that team is not that good.” And then all they do is go out and win.

While the Cardinals have the 6^th most efficient defense in the NFL, their overall efficiency ranks just 16^th with 1.2%. With seven wins, the Cardinals’ +36 point differential is OK, but not great.

And then there’re the St. Louis Rams. Which Rams team is showing up in Glendale?  The one that beat division rivals two out of three weeks, or the one that got crushed by Kansas City?

On paper, this game shouldn’t be close. The Rams rank 30^th in DVOA with -21.9%, 26^th on offense, 30^th on defense, and 21^st on special teams. They’ve been outscored by their opponents by 71 points. And, Austin Davis has come back to earth since his debut, now sporting a 47.9 QBR.

The Cardinals are at home. They are the more efficient team. They hold a +107 point advantage for the season over the Rams. Carson Palmer is clearly the best QB in this contest. And this season the Cards are 3-1 ATS when favored. I’m taking the Cardinals.

Pick – Arizona Cardinals

NY Giants (3-5) at Seattle (5-3) -9

I hate this line.

On the one hand, the NY Giants were annihilated by the Indianapolis Colts last week 40-24, and they’ve lost three in a row, with the 10 point loss at Dallas being the closest margin.

On the other hand, the Seahawks could only manage to beat the Oakland Raiders at Century Link by 6, last week. Has Seattle looked good since the 36-16 win over the Green Bay Packers in week one?

Adding to the frustration, Seattle is 3-5 ATS when favored this season, but has lost or failed to cover its last four games in a row. I would have winning records or better winning records each of the past four weeks by picking against the Seahawks.

Again, like the Cardinals and Rams matchup, on paper, this game shouldn’t be that close.

The Seahawks are the 4^th team in the NFL in overall efficiency with 17.5%. The defense has improved to 5^th in DVOA, while the offense lags behind at 12^th, and the special teams have not been good, ranking 23^rd.

The Giants rank 23^rd in overall DVOA with -9.3%, with the number 21 offense, 18 defense, and 20 special teams. They’ve been outscored this season by 31 and are 1-4 ATS as underdogs.

The bright spot for the Giants in this matchup is that Eli Manning has a 72.8 QBR compared to the regressing Russell Wilson and his 60.9 QBR.

While I’m pretty certain Seattle wins the game, I’m not so sure they can cover 9 against anyone. If you throw out the +20 from the Packers game in week one, the Seahawks are only +8 in their last seven games. I’m taking the Seahawks to win, but the Giants to cover.

Pick – NY Giants

Chicago (3-5) at Green Bay (5-3) -7.5

Have you watched the Chicago Bears? And you’ve seen Jay Cutler play football? I’m taking the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau on Sunday night.

Oh, you want analysis?

The Packers rank 5^th in overall DVOA at 17.3% compared to the Bears who rank 21^st at -6.7%. Aaron Rodgers with his 81.6 QBR will be leading the 3^rd most efficient offense in the NFL against the 23^rd most efficient defense. Expect a lot of points from the cheese heads.

Green Bay is 4-1 ATS when favored, while Chicago is 2-3 ATS as underdogs. I will not be surprised to see this spread increase closer to game time.

Pick – Green Bay Packers

Carolina (3-5-1) at Philadelphia (6-2) – 6

At least for this game, I’m not as worried about the Philadelphia Eagles starting Mark Sanchez in place of injured QB Nick Foles, as the Eagles haven’t been winning on offensive efficiency. It’s been their defense.

Philadelphia ranks 6^th in overall DVOA with 14.0%, but only 18^th in offense. Their defense, however, ranks 8^th in efficiency and they have the most efficient special teams in the NFL.

The Carolina Panthers have lost three in a row and have dropped from early season efficiency to 24^th in the league with -11.8%. Cam Newton is leading the 20^th most efficient offense on the back of his 52.7 QBR. Like Wilson, Newton has seen major regression this season.

The Eagles have a +116 point differential over the Panthers for the season and are 4-1 ATS when favored.

Barring the return of “butt fumble,” I’m taking the Eagles.

Pick – Philadelphia Eagles

Summary

Yes, I’m taking all home favorites to win and all but one to cover. Watch the Seahawks offense explode this week against The Slant podcast host Brad Stein’s Giants. But, otherwise, I’m feeling pretty confident about this week.

As always, have fun, enjoy the game, and stay out of trouble. And, by the way, any one of our readers win that $300 M+ Mega Millions jackpot? I could use a loan.