After an abysmal 5-11 start in week one, I bounced back slightly in week two for an 8-8 record, making my overall record for the season 13-19. My goal at this point is to get back to .500 by week four and start racking up after that.
You’ll note that due to a snafu on my part, last week’s column didn’t include the Sunday night or Monday night games. You’ll just have to trust me that I went 1-1 in those games, correctly picking the Bears +7.5 at San Francisco but losing by a half a point when the Colts lost by 3 to Philadelphia.
If you’d like to follow my picks or pick along with me, go to ESPN’s Pigskin Pick’ems. I’m in the group Fans of the Seattle Seahawks (Spread), with the handle Brian Hight’s OSN Picks.
Starting this week, I’m going to narrow down the number of games in order to spend a little bit more time with each. Teams in the NFC West, especially the Seattle Seahawks, will be featured, as well as the Sunday night and Monday night games. A few intriguing match ups will get thrown in also.
As always, I’ll be relying on advanced metrics. For an explanation of some of these stats, like DVOA, see my week two column or visit Football Outsiders.
So, here we go.
San Diego at Buffalo -2.5
The Chargers are coming off a 30-17 victory over the Seahawks at home, in which they controlled the ball for over 42 minutes. The Bills are one of the surprises of the early season with a 2-0 record and wins over the Chicago Bears and the Miami Dolphins.
Surprisingly, even with the win over the Seahawks, the Chargers still only rank 25th in overall Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) at -14.9%. While San Diego’s passing offense is very good, ranking 4th in DVOA, their rushing offense is near the bottom of the league at 31st in DVOA. With the loss of Ryan Mathews to injury, the Chargers will likely have to rely heavily on the pass, and don’t expect 34 year old Antonio Gates to catch 3 TDs every week.
With what appears to be a quality win against the Bears and maybe a not so quality win against the Dolphins, the Bills currently rank 2nd in DVOA at 33.8%. E.J. Manuel continues to improve as a top ten QB in terms of both Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) and DVOA.
At home, I like the Bills in this contest.
Pick – Buffalo Bills
Dallas -1.5 at St. Louis
Dallas looked awful in week one against the 49ers and pretty good last week against the Titans. Similarly, St. Louis looked terrible in week one, getting crushed by the Vikings 34-6, but looked OK in a week two win against a disappointing Tampa Bay Buccaneers team.
Dallas is 19th in overall DVOA at -1.7% while St. Louis ranks 29th at -42.1%
Against Tennessee, Dallas ran the ball 43 times compared to 19/29 passing. DeMarco Murray gained 167 yards on the ground for 5.8 yards per carry. And, it was consistent yardage too, as his longest rush was for only 22 yards.
The Rams rank 26th in defensive DVOA this season and 24th against rushing.
If Dallas will continue to commit to the run, this should be an easy victory for the Cowboys.
Pick – Dallas Cowboys
Washington at Philadelphia -6.5
Coming off a 41-10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, all of the Washington professional football team’s advanced metrics are skewed heavily. Rather than look at DVOA, where Washington is ranked 2nd at 40.4%, a glance at DAVE (Defense-adjusted Value Equalizer) that currently weights pre-season projections 75%, shows Washington ranked 13th.
Also using the same DAVE scale because Philly has also thrashed the Jags this season, the Eagles rank 9th, making this a fairly even match up on paper.
To further show how terrible the Jags are and to emphasize how much playing them inflates performance across the board, Kirk Cousins is 1st in the NFL in QBR. While I don’t think Cousins is that good, he may actually be a better fit for Washington’s offense than the now re-injured RGIII.
I like Philadelphia to win this game but Washington to cover.
Pick – Washington Redskins
Green Bay at Detroit -1
Just as Washington’s and Philadelphia’s rankings are boosted from playing the Jaguars, Green Bay’s ranking is depressed somewhat from playing at Seattle in week one. Up from 27th in overall DVOA after week one, at 12th this week, the Packers are still underperforming their DAVE ranking of 4th.
Detroit is ranked 7th in DVOA at 23.8%, down from a number 3 ranking in week one, and significantly lower than their 16th ranked DAVE number.
What may tip the balance in this matchup is that for the first time in a long time the Packers can run the ball, ranking 10th in rushing DVOA. And don’t look for Aaron Rodgers to remain in the lower half of the league in DYAR and DVOA.
Pick – Green Bay Packers
San Francisco -2.5 at Arizona
After scoring 28 points in the first half against Dallas, the 49ers have failed to score in 3 of their next 6 quarters. Colin Kaepernick was a turn over machine against the Bears, throwing 3 interceptions and coughing up a fumble for good measure.
Arizona, on the other hand, ranks 5th in overall defensive DVOA at -22.1% (remember negative numbers are good on defense), 1st against the run and 12th against the pass.
I have to imagine that the absence of Carson Palmer from the Cardinals’ lineup is the only reason the 49ers are favored. But, with an overall DVOA of 23.6% to rank 8th compared to the Niners’ 15th place ranking at 3.6%, I’m taking the Cardinals.
Pick – Arizona Cardinals
Denver at Seattle -5
One of the things I haven’t heard much discussed in connection with the Seahawks’ loss in San Diego was the heat. It was over 120 degrees on the field during the game.
As a southerner by birth, I can testify that folks up here in the Pacific Northwest don’t understand heat. No, heat is not 85 degrees on Alki Beach.
I think the heat really affected the Seahawks. You could just see how drained Seattle looked, especially the defense that was on the field for over 42 minutes.
I would expect to see a Seahawks team that closer resembles the one that beat the Packers than the one that lost to the Chargers, especially at home.
Denver is 1st in overall DVOA at 46.8% and Peyton Manning ranks 1st in both DYAR and DVOA. But, the Seahawks, despite the one loss, rank 5th in overall DVOA with 29.2%. Of note, the Seahawks defense dropped from 8th after game one to 21st with the loss to the Chargers.
Expect a better game than the Super Bowl. While I like the Seahawks to win this one at home, I’m going to take the Broncos to cover.
Pick – Denver Broncos
Pittsburgh at Carolina -3
Carolina would appear to be the vastly superior team, ranking 6th overall in DVOA at 26.1% compared to the Steelers’ 22nd place ranking with -4.6% The only thing that makes me hesitate with this game is the fact that the Panther’s don’t score a ton of points – 20 in beating Tampa and 24 in beating Detroit.
But, then Pittsburgh has scored 9 points on three FG in its last 6 quarters. And Carolina ranks 2nd in overall defensive DVOA with -26.8%
I’m taking Carolina 20-6.
Pick – Carolina Panthers
Chicago at NY Jets -2.5
Time out! (See what I did there? Sorry, Marty Mornhinweg.) Why are the Jets favored?
Chicago ranks 11th in overall DVOA at 14.4%. Jay Cutler ranks 5th in DYAR with 153. And, Brandon Marshall single handedly won the week for me in one of my fantasy leagues.
On the other hand, the Jets rank 21st in overall DVOA with -2.6%. Geno Smith ranks 25th in DYAR at -20 and 25th in DVOA at -16.2%. And the Jets only beat the Raiders, quite possibly the second worst team in the league behind Jacksonville, by 5 at home on opening day.
Take the Bears and parlay that with Marty as the first offensive coordinator fired this season.
Pick – Chicago Bears
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