After dropping their season opener to the Nashville Predators, the Senators did what they had to do to salvage their first road trip of the season.
Entering the team’s first road trip to start the season, the general consensus was that the Senators had to win two of three games before returning for the team’s home opener Thursday against the Colorado Avalanche. And in winning both of their games in the sunshine state against the Atlantic Division rival Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers, the Senators accomplished their goal.
Paul MacLean likes to say that “a win is a win is a win” and under normal circumstances, fans would normally be ecstatic with the team’s start, especially after the team missed the postseason last year. But (and yes, here’s the but), the way in which they have played hasn’t exactly elicited much in the way of confidence from me simply because the Senators cannot keep playing like this and expect to win consistently over the long haul.
In fairness to the Senators, we’re talking about their play in three road games. It’s a small sample size of games to start the season and because it is the start of the season, there will be more attention and analysis devoted to how it plays out. Had this same stretch of three games occurred during the middle of the season for example, the greater body of work would outweigh whatever happens during this stretch.
The coaching staff is also struggling to identify its optimum lineup as well, so with that also in mind, maybe it’s also far too early to suggest that whatever’s happened during these three games will be indicative of the team’s future performance. Yet, at the same time, the Senators cannot allow this same stretch of games to become part of a larger trend if they want to fulfill their designs of reaching the postseason and having success once they’re in.
Simply put, if the Senators have anyone to thank for their successful road trip, they can start with their goaltenders. Craig Anderson and Robin Lehner have combined to stop 87 of 90 even strength shots for an even strength save percentage of .967.
Getting that kind of goaltending has allowed the Senators to overcome the fact that they currently possess the fourth lowest close Fenwick for percentage in the entire NHL at 36.84 percent – ahead of doormats like Buffalo, Calgary and Carolina. Used as a proxy for possession that serves as an excellent predictor of future success, Fenwick for percentage tracks the combined number of shots and missed shots that a team has relative to its opponent while removing the impact of score effects. (Note: Fenwick close simply tracks shots/missed shots when the score is tied or close.)
Now maybe the Senators can expect some regression to the mean with their Fenwick percentage. After all, this is a team that has been a positive puck possession team in each of Paul MacLean’s first three seasons behind the bench. With that being said, high event hockey has also been a characteristic of MacLean’s teams and by allowing 35.7 shots against per game (5th highest rate in NHL) this season, the margin for error is small and it puts a lot of undue pressure on the goaltenders to perform at a high level.
Looking back at their successful 2012/13 lockout shortened season, “Ottawa had the NHL’s second-highest even strength save percentage (. 936) and the highest short-handed save percentage (. 922) in the NHL” which allowed the “pesky Sens” moniker to take effect and stick.
As a team that so desperately aims to bring “pesky” back, they’re living up to their past performance… for now.
Other News and Notes…
– Pierre Lebrun was on TSN 1040 Monday afternoon and during his interview, he discussed the NHL defensive trade defensive market and how fans may want to pay attention to the availability of Marc Methot and Patrick Wiercioch. Here’s the transcription via Chris Nichols:
“And the Ottawa Senators. They’ve got eight one-way contracts when it comes to their defencemen. Couple of options there. Patrick Wiercioch, who’s been a scratch mostly. Or you’ve got to keep an eye on what’s going to happen with Marc Methot because his contract negotiations drag on. I don’t think Ottawa is going to let that go right to March. I mean, either he signs an extension, or he gets moved I think. So that’s another name to keep an eye on.”
As Elliotte Friedman pointed out in his latest 30 Thoughts piece for Sportsnet, it will be intriguing to see how long the Senators are prepared to wait without a contract extension in place for Methot.
– Looking for a Christmas gift for your Senators supporting loved one? HockeySockey.com now sells NHL onesies. I may have to place an order on the Senators one.
– The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch had a sit down interview with Bobby Ryan to discuss the forward’s new seven-year, $50M extension that’s worth checking out.
– Just a final reminder to fans that they can visit the Sens Store at the Canadian Tire Centre to pick up an Erik Karlsson ‘C’ for free starting today. The deal is limited to the first 1,000 fans however.
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