Building On Sand

Free Agency offers lottery teams the chance to improve, but often teams are tempted into high risk signings

Free agency is, for many players, the chance to find a team that best suits their desires.  Rings and money tend to always be the highest motivators, which present problems for franchises without the team to win it all and/or the cash to spend.  Any discussion of top free agents typically involves the same handful of teams that carry the weight of influence in the league.

But it’s no secret that market size and history holds the most weight in the league.  Hold Los Angeles in one hand and Sacramento in another and we know which hand a player is taking more often than not.  There are always the exceptions of course; points in time when a team outside the big markets wins out on highly sought after players.  However, these signings sometimes result in teams built on sand.

For small market teams, the best way to build is through the draft, but so much of that is dependent on timing and luck.  Even when a lottery team drafts a franchise player, money must be spent in free agency to win championships.  This is where it gets tricky.  How does a small market team make themselves a more attractive destination than the big market teams?  Having a franchise player helps, but even that doesn’t guarantee championships.  Cleveland had Lebron for seven years, but the highest profile players to ever join forces with The King were Mo Williams, Antawn Jamison, and a Shaquille O’Neal three years too old from having any real impact.  Orlando had Dwight, but adding Hedo Türkoğlu and Vince Carter didn’t translate to rings.

For teams without the superstars, the challenge is even greater.  Charlotte, even with the available cap space last off-season, couldn’t get Goran Dragic, Kris Humphries, or even Jamison, who saw the opportunity for his family (which lives in Charlotte) to watch him play.  Dragic took more money, Humphries preferred Brooklyn, and Jamison went in search of a ring.  In hindsight, Charlotte can feel slightly relieved.  Dragic would have ended up as an expensive surplus to Kemba Walker, and while Humphries would have been a much needed front court presence, $12 million a year could be spent this off-season or the next on a player whose value matches that.  Only Jamison would have been worth the money, even if he ended up as primarily a mentor.

These decisions, to spend the money on a free agent or not, are what every team has to think through each off-season, and for small market teams, the stakes are higher.  The Knicks gave the oft-injured Amar’e Stoudemire $65 million guaranteed, yet even with his absence, they are the two seed in the East.  On the other hand, Orlando gave Türkoğlu $52 million in ’09 to keep him in town, and then traded him away before strangely bringing him back.  Now, after testing positive for metenolone, the Magic will likely cut ties with him yet again.

Türkoğlu is one example of the dangers free agency can bring, and this off-season, small market teams must tread carefully to avoid building a team whose foundation isn’t as concrete as it first appears.  Not only should they be wary of other free agents but their own as well.  This off-season will contain a number of big names, and where they end up and for how much will determine what kind of decisions, good or bad, were made.

Certain names will be tempting.  Philadelphia has hinted that they want Andrew Bynum back, but should they let him walk the potential to bring in a legitimately talented and still young center will have the attention of every team with enough cap space.  But will Bynum recover from season-ending knee surgery, and if he does, is the desire to compete even there?  For one or two years, he could be worth the risk, but overpaying for Bynum so that he doesn’t go to a bigger market could doom a lottery team.

There is also volume scorer named Monta Ellis, who, according to recent reports, will opt-out on the final year of his deal.  For teams in need of a twenty point-a-night scorer, Ellis could be that player.  Consider though that in six and a half years with Golden State and a season and a half in Milwaukee, he has never been a part of a team better than an eight seed.  Granted, Ellis has also never been a part of teams with championship potential, but it is telling that his teams have rarely been competitive with him as the primary scorer.

Still, even with the questions regarding Bynum’s knees and his desire to play, or Ellis’ effectiveness as the leading scorer on his team, both players will sign for a team this off-season.  For both, there is at least one team, maybe more, that they would fit in and dramatically improve the team.  More than likely that perfect fit resides on a team whose foundation is already set, where they would act in a supporting role rather than as the star.  For those still building, it would be wise to squash the temptations that these players and others like them bring.  The desire to win now may prove too much for some, but too often that desire sacrifices long-term stability in favor of short-term success.

By Nick Denning