Closers, or relievers in general, are told to have a short memory. Whether they’ve blown a seven run lead or have converted 84 straight saves, no two back-to-back games and sometimes seasons are alike. Ask the 2008 Indians. Sometimes, fans have shorter memories than the relievers themselves.
In 2015, Cody Allen led all relievers in fWAR (2.6) (even better than Aroldis Chapman and Wade Davis) his 1.82 FIP was the best in baseball as well. He was 34-38 in save opportunities. So why after an elite year, do fans think that Allen is no longer a reliable closer?
It’s true that relievers can be quite volatile year to year and Allen has already walked 13 hitters compared to 25 in 69 1/3 innings in 2015. His velocity is down a tick, but he is 11-11 in those all important “save” opportunities. There will be another conversation about the value of evaluating relievers based on “saves” someday soon.
In 11 May outings, Allen has a 0.73 ERA with 18 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings.
Terry Francona has avoided naming Allen the “closer” in the past but has deployed him in the 9th inning more often that not. He has had to work in tie games, larger leads and extra innings to get work in.For what it’s worth, in non-save situations for his career, Allen has a 2.90 ERA with 186 strikeouts in 161 1/3 innings.
Allen may not be Chapman, Eric Gagne or even Wade Davis at times, but has was called elite at times last year by writers without any ties to Cleveland and continues to be a reliable weapon in high leverage situations. His losses to Seattle, Minnesota and Philadelphia seem to stick out more than his one earned run in May since the loss to the Phillies.
Bryan Shaw has met the disdain of Cleveland fans late last season, this year and Detroit Tigers Manager Brad Ausmus. Even so, he’s allowed runs in just five of his 22 outings this season. His command (seven walks in 19 2/3 innings) hasn’t been as sharp in the past, but his velocity is up and the 17 of the 22 outings that he hasn’t allowed a run get overlooked. His 95 mph cutter is the hardest he’s thrown. Since allowing four runs on April 16, Shaw has given up three runs his last 16 2/3 innings. Shaw has appeared in 33, 64, 70, 80, and 74 over the last five years, but his fastball velocity indicates it hasn’t affected him in that way.
It is interesting that Shaw’s vertical release point has shifted quite a bit with his cutter and slider over the last few season.
Regardless, 75% of Shaw’s runs allowed have come in two disastrous outings. Allen should be considered near the group of upper echelon active closers. Shaw is a notch below this but still one of the most durable and consistent setup men in baseball. What the overreaction to isolated bad outs proves is that people’s belief that because a professional athlete is paid to play a game, he isn’t ever allowed to make a mistake.
It also proves the Indians need bullpen help as well. Kansas City’s two World Series trips were keyed around a Medusa-like bullpen from the seventh inning on. The Yankees are old and broken down this season, but their three-headed monster has been dominant with the few leads they’ve been given. Building “super bullpens” is the new way to exploit a market inefficiency. While the Indians bullpen isn’t in the same tier as those, Allen and Shaw have made them pretty good and another running mate (not Zach McAllister and someone with more of a track record than Joba Chamberlain) might remind people just how good those two can be.
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