I’m not liking the Celtics chances in tonight’s Game 3. It’s a must-win game for Washington. I have to imagine they’ll be playing with a ton of emotion. I’m holding out some hope that they’ll be too hyped. They’ve bitched a lot about the officiating and the need to play more physical:
“I get held coming off every screen; off pick-and-rolls I get held,” Beal said. “I get fouled a lot, but it’s the playoffs. You can’t complain about it. You can’t be passive. [We] can’t allow that to change our aggression. We have to push back, fight back; do whatever it takes. Sometimes we’ll be called for it. We have to put it in the ref’s hands a little bit.”
Welcome to playoff basketball, Bradley Beal.
None of that will matter much if the Wizards do not defend the perimeter. How bad has their defense been?
In all, according to NBA.com stats, 31 of the Celtics’ 75 3-point attempts in this series have come with a defender 4-6 feet away from the shooter, or what the league deems “open.” They’ve gotten 32 “wide open” 3-pointers.
In all, 35.3 percent of all the Celtics’ shots in this series have been 3-pointers either open or wide open — without a defender within four feet. The Wizards were not a great closeout team in the regular season, but only 26.4 percent of the shots opponents took were 3-pointers without a defender within four feet. During the season, 29.8 percent of the Celtics’ shots were open or wide open 3s.
There’s another element to all the open looks – Brad Stevens is damn good. In a great article on what the Wizards can do to slow down Isaiah, SB Nation’s Mike Prada details the genius:
I think they had the right idea for a couple possessions late in the game when Gortat hard trapped IT to the point where he couldn’t see his outlets, plus Morris zoned up in the back. That I think is the best strategy. It worked for those couple plays, that’s for sure, and when IT was struggling against Chicago that’s how Lopez was doing it. And though Mahinmi isn’t a panacea by any means, he’s probably better at that than Gortat is.
The problem is that Boston started using misdirection to confuse Gortat and lean him off-balanced so he couldn’t trap. Isaiah hit a huge 3 late where Gortat got fooled into trapping Bradley (I think?) coming off a pindown, not realizing that was decoy action. That meant he was late to help the guard on IT’s screening action and IT got a three. Brad Stevens is a great coach, but Wiz gotta stay disciplined there. It’s hard, but there is still a big difference between a hard trap and a kinda hard trap. You can’t give Thomas ANY room to maneuver off those screens, because if he gets any, he’ll split the double, throw the early pass or use a hesitation to freeze his man.
My heart’s with the green, but my wallet is with Washington -5.
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