It may be 80 degrees in Cali, but its cold in the prediction booth
Hello Followers. Hope you’ve had a great week.
Well, as much as I’ve tried to push off predicting this game, the time has come to do so.
For the next two weeks, our boys will play their final measuring stick games. The first is against a team that is going to finish in the bottom third in the conference. The second is against an Oregon State team that is a bonafide threat to finish at the top of the conference’s middle third.
And frankly, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to know that bowl caliber teams win both of these games; they do just enough to win games on the road against inferior opponents (e.g., CAL) and they tend to win games against teams of similar caliber at home (e.g., Oregon State).
So, if this team is a bowl caliber outfit, they will win the next two and head to Eugene at 5-2 with a couple of AP 25 votes in tow.
Continue reading to see if I think we're going to pull a 5-2 start out of the hat.
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Followers, as I've said over and over and over and over again, this game is going to decide our bowl hopes. Win this one, and at 2-1 in conference (with two road wins), it is hard for me to imagine that we won’t find two more the rest of the way.
In contrast, lose this one, and this team seems destined to finish 4-8 for the second time in three years.
And because of that possibility, I got to thinking: Does this team more closely resemble the 2011 Cougars or the last WSU team that was bowl eligible (the 2006 squad)? And, as I thought about it, the more gloomy I became…….
For starters, I think that this year’s team is pretty similar defensively to the 2006 group. In fact, I would consider this team to be a near replica of that defense if Travis Long was here to provide the perfect match to Mr. Bruce as a pass rusher.
On offense, I think I'd have to give the nod to the 2006 group—given their overall experience and balance. But, if you remember, that group struggled mightily offensively until about the midpoint of the season. Prior to that, the 2006 team scored less than 15 points against CAL, Oregon State, and Auburn, and barely managed 17 points against what was a cellar dwelling Baylor squad. But when you think about the balance that the 2006 group had with Hill, Bumpus, Gibson, as well as Jedzilla, Tardy, Woolridge, and Ivory (when all were healthy) and well, they just seemed more poised for success than this group…
And then we have the 2011 Cougar squad. To be sure, the 2013 Cougars are MUCH better defensively than that team—especially along the defensive line. And, while I’m not crazy enough to suggest that Marshall was a better quarterback than Halliday (we know that he wasn’t even then—which is why Connor got the nod two series into the ASU game), I find myself questioning whether our offense now is measurably better than that group. For instance, I think the offensive lines are pretty similar. The running game in 2011 was better than what we’ve seen out of this team so far. And while I think we have considerably more depth at the WR position, if we erase last season from memory, I think that Kars, Wilson, and Barton would start for this team at this point in the year. I really do.
People forget because I got hurt, but I was a really good player..
And so, if asked about how I would rank this team relative to those two I think I’d put the 2006 group #1, followed by this team, with the 2011 team, perhaps surprisingly, not that far behind this year's group at this point in the season.
And the reason why it is even that close is that, to this point, our boys have not shown that they can score against a non-FCS defense (and yes, Idaho is an FBS school, but their talent is of FCS quality in my book).
I mean, if we look at our offensive output from the half of the Auburn game up until the 4th quarter of the Stanford game, our offense has scored three field goals against FBS (quality) competition. If we want to extend that out to the garbage time touches we got last Saturday, over the past 10 quarters, we’ve scored 3 field goals and two touchdowns. In my math, that equals 23 points over the past two and half games.
So, when I say that we need to score 30 points in a game to win, well, the statistic above doesn’t provide a lot of confidence, does it?
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And then we get to CAL. To be sure, the Bears haven’t looked good—especially on the defensive side of the ball. At the same time, it is worth noting that the Bears have played TWO teams ranked in the top 4 in the Nation as well as a Northwestern team that is pretty dynamic and creative with two quarterbacks. And throughout that stretch, Mr. Goff has thrown for nearly FIVE HUNDERED YARDS a game when not playing in monsoon-like conditions.
And so, while I think our D is going to hang in there in this one, the key once again is whether or not our offense can score enough points to keep us in the game.
Mind you, I continue to be steadfast in my belief that our offense can be good, if not special, this year. And because of that, part of me feels like a break-out performance is right around the corner. And so, I wouldn’t be surprised to see us win this game in grand fashion, like 51-24….
But until such time that I see us break the 30, 40, or 50 point barrier against real competition, I’m going to hang out on the downer side of the ledger, even if it pains me to do so.
CAL wins 34-23 in a game that will make next week’s game against Oregon State a potential make-or-break moment, not only for the season, but for the program.
Elsewhere:
Stanford 41 UW 24. Don’t like this match-up for UW—but I think we’ll see them score in garbage time. But Oregon should be on upset alert next week.
Oregon 56 Colorado 9. Really don’t like this match-up for CU.
Notre Dame 24 ASU 23. It’s pretty important for the conference that ASU win this game. But man, until such time that ASU can stop the run and win on the road, its hard to pick them here.
UCLA 38 Utah 24. Picked this game in comments yesterday. Looking forward to watching the replay this weekend. Seems like Utah may be better than we thought. Rats!
Last week: 4-1
Totals to Date: 23-3
Cougs: 3-2 (PLEASE MAKE ME 3-3, fellas!!!!)
All for now. Go Cougs!
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