So it looks like Cam Atkinson will be back in the lineup tonight against the San Jose Sharks. After three healthy scratches in the last four games (and the lone game played being the Chicago shellacking), we finally get to see him again. Cam Atkinson looks to be the victim of one of my favorite sports theories, Bill Simmons’ Ten Percent Theory. While originally applied to Russell Westbrook of the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder, I think it applies pretty well in this situation regarding Cam. As the theory goes, no player is perfect. Every player is missing at least 10 percent of the ideal basketball player (or hockey player in this case). For Russell Westbrook, his ten percent is the recklessness he plays with. This can rear its head at inopportune moments, and distracts people from the 90% of his game that is fantastic. He compares this to Kevin Durant, whose missing ten percent is his lack of strength and defense, two things that are not as obvious to most viewers.
Now thinking about that theory, and applying it to the Blue Jackets, Cam isn’t even the most obvious ten percent theory candidate. That would clearly be James Wisniewski. Wiz is as close to a Russell Westbrook as the Blue Jackets have ever had. His ten percent isn’t necessarily recklessness, it’s having an eye for the big play. This often results in intercepted passes in the defensive zone when he’s looking for the stretch pass instead of hitting a closer forward. There’s two points to look at here: first, a guy with the puck on his stick as much as Wiz is naturally going to turn the puck over MUCH more than someone like Dalton Prout, who doesn’t handle the puck very much. This is why raw turnover totals would be stupid to judge any player by, even if they were counted reliably. The second, is that Wiz’s aggressiveness is part of what makes him a pretty special player. It’s what separates him from Marc-Andre Bergeron, another smallish defenseman with a monster shot on the PP. Those turnovers are part and parcel with the rest of his game, they aren’t going anywhere, and taking away the part of Wiz that causes those turnovers would also take away part of what makes Wiz successful.
Now onto Cam. Let’s step back from the ten percent theory for a minute, and just go through Cam’s stats. First, the basic stuff (from NHL.com): Cam ranks 3rd among Jackets forwards in goals, 4th in points, tied for 2nd powerplay goals, tied for 2nd most shorthanded goals, tied for 2nd in game winning goals, 2nd in shots on goal, and 3rd in blocked shots. That is a pretty impressive, and paints him as a borderline first line player and firmly a second line player. Okay, so what about taking a deeper look (from Extra Skater): Cam’s Corsi % ranks 7th among forwards at 50.8%, Fenwick % ranks 6th at 51%, Shot % ranks 7th at 50.2%, PDO 10th among forwards at very sustainable 100.7 (ie. luck not a factor). So far none of that really does much to dissuade the fact that he should be a firmly entrenched second liner. Maybe not a borderline first like his boxcar stats suggest, but still a good second line player.
So what about the context of those stats? We Cam only ranks 6th among Jackets forwards in even strength time on ice and powerplay time on ice. He’s the lowest second line forward in time on ice. Which makes his production look a little better. He’s also only 6th among forwards in O/D Zone Starts at 50.7% (he has slightly more offensive zone starts), 9th in QOC (behind Johansen, Gaborik, Foligno, Umberger, Horton, Dubinsky, Calvert, Anisimov). So he’s playing second line minutes, on the second powerplay unit, is in the middle of pack in terms of zone starts, and faces competition on the slightly easier side. That is pretty much exactly the standard second line. The toughest minutes are usually handled by the third line or the top line. Good teams have a second line that can feast on the inbetweens. That is what Cam has done this year.
So we’ve now covered the 90% when it comes to Cam Atkinson. The ten percent should be pretty obvious. Cam is pretty damn small. It doesn’t seem to bother him too much offensively, as he’s still been successful scoring, and his shot locations don’t even suggest a perimeter player. He’s actually tied for 6th among forwards in average shot distance, trailing Tropp, Boll, Anisimov, Umberger, Dubinsky; tied with Calvert; and ahead of Gaborik, Jenner, Foligno, Horton, Johansen, among others. So the only stat that really covers where his size impacts things is hits, where he ranks 11th among Jackets forwards. Now, on most teams how often Cam hits wouldn’t really be a factor. But now, Cam is really the only forward left who doesn’t hit and isn’t considered a defensive forward. With Gaborik gone, Anisimov is the only forward left who isn’t very physical, but he kills penalties, is a centre and is often tasked with tougher assignments.
As opposed to most ten percent theory candidates, it isn’t the fans overly focusing on the negative ten percent, but the coaching staff. In Aaron Portzline’s chat yesterday he fielded a question about why Cam has been getting scratched. Here’s the most relevant parts of his answer: “He (Todd Richards) wanted a straight-line, physical team on the ice for that game in Nashville”. This is just such a shortsighted approach in my opinion. Isn’t the point about being a physical team to open up space for the smaller, less physical skilled guys to work? Look back on all the toughest teams in NHL history, and you will find a couple of less physical skill guys. And Cam really is significantly smaller than anyone else on the team. Matt Calvert is the closest comparable forward in many ways, but he is closer in size to Boone Jenner (3 inches, 11bls) than Cam (3 inches, 13lbs)
What I want to know is if Richards is expecting Atkinson to change his game, wanting a little more Calvert out of him. Is this a punishment for not going harder into the corners, or hitting more? Is that the message being sent to him privately? Play “Blue Jackets hockey” or you’ll be in the press box? Because that is a mistake to me. It takes physical toll on smaller players to play that style. Cam has been fairly healthy over his NHL career so far, and I would bet a large sum of money that if he was barreling into the corners, and throwing fruitless hits around with abandon he’d have spent much more time on the IR. Even further, Cam is 24 years old, turning 25 this summer. That is the height of a scorer’s prime. While he seems young (due to his size and baby face), Cam is who he is going to be by this point. If Richards realizes this, and this isn’t an attempt to change Cam’s game, then he really thinks the team is better off with players who are worse than Cam in every conceivable way minus their size and the number of times they run into an opponent who has the puck. If that is the case, that concerns me.
Now I’d had these thoughts percolating prior to reading Justin Bourne’s take on talking to opponents during games, and I just have to include it, as I believe it helps paint a fuller picture of why Cam is in this spot. We’ve all seen Cam’s photoshop’s on Twittter, and his general demeanor. He seems like a guy who likes to have fun. Read that piece from Bourne thinking about Cam. Likes to smile and have fun? Check. Young guy? Check. Young second line scoring winger? Check.
I think this goes beyond just talking to opponents, but Cam’s behavior at all times. With the number of super serious players on the Blue Jackets, and their team identity, I can see how a smaller, non-physical player who is constantly smiling and posting silly things on Twitter can be seen as “not taking the game seriously”. And honestly, that is a complete load of crap. “Not taking the game seriously” is a real thing that real coaches and management types think. That statement is practically an oxymoron. But that attitude exists, and if you are having fun playing the game of hockey, while not entirely fitting into the team dynamic, it’s easy to become the coaches whipping boy, play be damned. THAT is the problem to me. Cam’s play has been very good! Cam is in the NHL to score goals. Those things you need to win. The things that actually count on the scoreboard. Cam ranks 76th among forwards in the NHL in goals per game at .29 (among players with at least 20GP). That’s just about a 24 goal pace. That would have been 72nd last year. 77th the year before that. Now, there are 30 teams in the NHL. There are 90 forwards who play first line minutes (more or less, but you get the point). He scores goals at a first line rate, with goal per game rates of .26, .26, and .29 over his three years. You’ll find him 85th in this list (100GP last three years, .27 goals per game or more, sorted by goals per game) sandwiched between Henrik Zetterberg and David Backes. Obviously those players have other elements to their game. But it’s asinine to value those elements that much more than goal scoring. I know, I am hammering this point. But goals are what count on the scoreboard, and it’s not like Cam is bad at the other stuff, he just doesn’t hit. Hopefully he comes back with a vengeance tonight, scores a couple goals, remind Richards why he’s an NHL player, and never leaves the lineup again.
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