Chris Huston, The Heisman Pundit, has ten rules for the Heisman Trophy he calls “The Ten Heismandents.” The rules are based on a careful review of Heisman history in the race for football’s most prestigious individual award.
Having one in the trophy case would be another measure that the Ducks have arrived at the top rung of college football, and it would be another thing for coaches to point to in recruiting visits. It sends the message, “You can be a success at Oregon. You can achieve all your goals, be on national TV, compete for championships, make it to the league. And you can be the brightest star in college football.”
The beauty of it is, the Ducks don’t recruit guys who place a lot of emphasis on that last part, focusing on players who have “chance to win” as one of their highest priorities in selecting a school. Oregon won’t conduct a campaign for Darron Thomas, Cliff Harris or LaMichael James, but they are each legitimate Stiff Arm Trophy candidates anyway.
(Harris’ missing a game impedes him, but it doesn’t disqualify him. If Cam Newton can win the award in a landslide with an investigatory cloud over his head, Kash missing an early-season tilt against the Tigers just slows him down a while. And as everyone knows, Harris can’t be slowed down for long. He’ll have at least four national TV games and numerous highlight shows to make an impression. If he leads the country in punt returns for touchdowns, interceptions and memorable quotes, Cliffy will get some notice for the Heisman.)
The key piece in forecasting this year’s Heisman race is the fate of frontrunner Andrew Luck. Luck is a wonderful player and the probable number one pick in next spring’s NFL draft, but if Stanford slips back a little, say to three or four losses and a middling bowl, Luck’s prospects for following Jim Plunkett to the Downtown Athletic Club’s podium fizzle. Huston’s Heismandent number five says:
5. The winner must be one or more of the following three:
a. The top player on a national title contender.
b. A player who puts up good numbers for a traditional power that has a good record.
c. A player who puts up superlative single-season or career numbers on a good team, or numbers that are way out ahead of his Heisman competitors.
If Harris, James and Thomas outplay Luck in Palo Alto, and his team loses that game on the way to losses against Notre Dame and USC, Luck isn’t the frontrunner anymore, piloting a 9-3/8-4 team. But if Luck has the dream season, plays as well or better as he did in 2010, with The Cardinal making a BCS bowl, he wins the trophy no matter what anyone else does.
James and Thomas have a better chance of stealing the Heisman than does Harris. They have one more game on a big stage to launch their campaign (at Oregon, the campaign consists solely of what the player does on the field. The Athletic Department doesn’t send out clever paperweights or glossy flyers, which usually backfire anyway. Joey Harrington got a billboard in New York, but that was ten years ago, before the Ducks became a national power and a fixture in the Top Ten. Dennis Dixon proved all a Duck had to do to make it to New York was win, while leading on the field and staying healthy.)
If Thomas or James star in The Cowboy Classic with a memorable performance, say 200 yards rushing for James or 3-4 touchdown passes and 300 yards for Thomas, they move to the first page of Heisman candidates, and they’ll stay there as long as the Ducks keep winning. If Oregon finishes in the Top Five while Luck and Stanford slide to the Top Twenty, LMJ or DT, or both, become the leading candidates out of the West.
The big competition then becomes Landry Jones, quarterback for Oklahoma, or Trent Richardson, the tailback from Alabama. Both of these are formidable candidates. They play at traditional powers, and each will likely be the star of a team competing for a national title. Jones in particular will rack up big numbers feasting on weak Big 12 (9 and counting down) pass defenses.Jones passed for 4718 yards and 38 touchdowns last season. He has Ryan Broyles to throw to, a phenomenal, game-breaking receiver who had 131 catches for 1622 yards and 14 tds, a big, veteran offensive line, lots of television exposure and a number one/number two ranking in most polls. The key to his candidacy is an early-season road game at Florida State, another contender for the national title. If he wins this game while posting big numbers, Jones is on the way to a very formidable run at the bronze Jay Berwanger. Again, Luck remains the frontrunner as long as Stanford is relevant, but minus Jim Harbaugh, there is a very good chance Stanford doesn’t validate their preseason hype. Which makes Jones the most likely spoiler, producing impressive numbers on one of college football’s most legendary and decorated teams.
Richardson too has some buitl-in advantages. He’ll rack up big numbers in Alabama’s plodding offense, and his big runs will be the key difference in a series of epic 17-13 SEC showdowns. He plays for Alabama, the favorite among many for a national title. He’ll also be able to pad his stats in easy, one-sided wins over Kent State, North Texas, Vanderbilt and Georgia Southern, running for 200 yards and three touchdowns in each of those games, in about a half.
In terms of national recognition and legitimacy, the College Football Live kind of legitimacy, the Ducks are still the cute little team with the fancy uniforms and the Playstation offense. Until they win a BCS bowl and pull down a Heisman, that perception won’t change. A Heisman Trophy is another measure of making it to the big boy table in college football. Given a chance to choose, Thomas and James would rather have the wins, but the trophy is a natural consequence of staying on track for the main goal.
Clearly it’s not something they’ll focus on, but if Oregon stays where they are ranked now, or nudges up a spot or two, their performances will earn one or both of them a trip to the ceremony. The final ballot depends a lot on what happens around the country, much of it far beyond their control. But if Oregon goes 14-0/13-1 and James rushes for another 1750 yards and 20 touchdowns, while Thomas throws for 3500 and 35 tds, these two could win up in nice suits on ESPN in December.
They may or may not fly home with a 25-lb. mantle decoration. But at the very least, they could pave the way for Marcus Mariota or De’Anthony Thomas to win one in the future.
The biggest possible travesty in the Heisman Trophy race? If Boise State’s Kellen Moore wins the award, nailing it down in the last couple of weeks of the season with big games over Wyoming and New Mexico.
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