By now most of us are aware of the odd journey Carlos Carrasco has taken to this point in his professional career. He came to the Tribe in 2009 as the centerpiece of the trade that sent 2008 Cy Young Award winner, Cliff Lee, to the Philadelphia Phillies. After several less than impressive stints with the big league club, and many trips down I-71 to Columbus, Carrasco found himself in the starting rotation on Opening Day 2014. Most figured this was Carlos’ last chance to prove he was worthy of a spot in the starting rotation, with some (including myself) feeling that the Indians should cut their losses entirely if this didn’t go well.
Carrasco made just four starts to begin the season before being demoted to the bullpen. During those four starts, Carrasco had a putrid 6.95 ERA, amplified by a .355 BABIP. And while a high BABIP can be indicative of a bad pitcher, it is also sign that the pitcher is unlucky and/or has a very poor defense behind him. In this case, Carlos may have been the victim of both.
FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are three of the more prominent ERA estimators used to predict a pitcher’s success. All three attempt to measure what a pitcher’s ERA would be if factors like luck and defense were eliminated from the equation. In short, they are a measure of how good a pitcher’s “stuff” is and what results it should produce. During those four April starts Carlos had a FIP and xFIP of 3.66, slightly below the league average of 3.74. He also had a SIERA of 3.51, even further below the league average of 3.67. This by no means says that he was a great pitcher in April, but it certainly shows that he wasn’t nearly as bad as his 6.95 ERA suggests.
This was coupled with the fact that Carlos was doing well at the things he could control. He was striking out batters at a rate of 9.41 K/9 rate, well above the 7.73 league average. He was also limiting his line drives (14.3%) and fly balls (31.7%) to above average rates, while forcing ground balls 54% of the time. It is intuitive that pitchers who keep the ball on the ground tend to have success, as ground balls produce fewer extra-base hits and runs than line drives and fly balls. However, Carlos was the exception to this rule.
The one thing you have to love about Carlos Carrasco is that he doesn’t quit. The demotion in late April could have killed his morale and caused him to give up. Carrasco chose not to do that and continued to work hard, pitching well in 26 games out of the bullpen. He pitched so well in fact, that many thought he should be kept in the bullpen permanently, as this is where he could help the team the most.
On August 10, Carrasco would get another shot at proving he could be a starter in the major leagues. Pitching completely out of the stretch, he went five innings without giving up a run, and from there he never looked back. Carlos made nine more starts down the stretch as the Tribe battled for a spot in the Wild Card game. He was lights out during this stretch, going 5-3 with an absurd 1.30 ERA. But the question is, can he duplicate this 10 game span over a full season? The short answer is yes!
This comes with a minor caveat though. It is very unlikely that Carlos can duplicate these exact results over 30+ starts in 2015, simply because he was unsustainably good during this run. Expecting him to maintain an ERA near 1.30 over a full season is foolish, even in this era dominated by pitching. However, it is not unrealistic to expect Carlos to produce the kind of results befitting of a #2 starter on a team expected to compete for a division title, and perhaps even a World Series.
Over this 10 start stretch, Carlos had a FIP of 1.73, an xFIP of 2.16, and a SIERA of 2.27. He was striking out batters at a rate of 10.17K/9 and only allowing 1.43BB/9. You can believe the hype folks, Carlos Carrasco’s “stuff” is legit.
Predicting a pitcher’s success is a difficult task. No matter what the advanced metrics say about a pitcher’s performance, there are so many variables that can affect the way a pitcher performs (injuries, mechanics, luck, mental issues). With that said, I truly believe Carlos Carrasco is going to be very good next year. When you look at all 14 starts he made last year, he was at worst an above average pitcher who was perhaps a bit unlucky. When he was given some time to work on his stuff away from the pressures accompanied with being in the starting rotation, he showed that he can take the next step and dominate major league hitters. If I were to make a prediction, I’d say Carlos’ 2015 will be somewhere between his 4 starts in April and his final 10 starts in August and September, giving him an ERA that sits around 3.25 or lower.
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