This Thursday’s game between ECU and Cincinnati figured to have plenty of significance in the AAC before the 2014 college football season started, and that certainly has come to fruition.
Both teams are 3-1 in the conference, placing them a win behind the Memphis Tigers, who have the most favorable schedule coming down the stretch (at Tulane, vs USF, vs UConn) and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Cincinnati. The loser between the Pirates and Bearcats can likely kiss their conference title hopes goodbye, and the winner lives to fight another week while hoping for some outside help to get a piece of the AAC crown.
In Cincinnati, all eyes and ears are awaiting any news on the bruised ribs of Gunner Kiel as his status for the game is day-to-day. As the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Tom Groeschen reported, head coach Tommy Tuberville said after the Tulane game that he wants Kiel to be healthier before getting the first team reps, and that he wants to avoid a “back-and-forth” situation with his starting quarterback.
Kiel very much still in mix. Tuberville wants him healthier before working steadily with 1’s again. Wants to avoid back-and-forth re starter
— Tom Groeschen (@TomGroeschen) November 1, 2014
//platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsSo, as the week goes on, we will see what is reported on Kiel’s health and what his practice participation looks like leading up to the game. Until any of that information is available, we can assume Munchie Legaux will be the starter for Cincinnati.
Which begs the question: can Cincinnati beat ECU with Legaux as its quarterback?
Legaux has not officially started a game yet this season, but he has seen significant playing time. Kiel played the first half of the USF game before ceding the role to Legaux after suffering an injury with the Bearcats up 20-3. Legaux led UC to a 34-17 win going 14-of-15 for 121 yards and adding a rushing touchdown.
Against Tulane, Kiel was in on just one play — the first from scrimmage in which he threw an interception — before exiting the game after being day-to-day that week with the rib injury. Legaux played the rest of the game and went 16-of-24 for 211 yards with three touchdowns and one interception while also running the ball three times for 16 yards. The Bearcats won the game 38-14.
Now, back to the question at hand: can UC beat ECU with Legaux under center? In short, I do not think so. While Legaux is a fantastic comeback story after his season was ended with a career-threatening knee injury last year, and truly an ideal back-up as a guy with a ton of experience and who can make a play with his legs, he does not have the game-changing talent that Kiel possesses.
The fact of the matter is the Bearcats’ offense is limited with Legaux under center as they play it safe with him in the game. Cincinnati has relied heavily on its running game and kept Legaux in manageable situations while restricting him to mostly short throws in the passing game, as evidenced by his 6.55 average yards per attempt. His long touchdown is listed at 54 yards, but even that pass only traveled four yards past the line of scrimmage on a slant route with Casey Gladney running the other 50 after the catch.http://player.espn.com/player.js?pcode=1kNG061cgaoolOncv54OAO1ceO-I&width=576&height=324&externalId=espn:11799209
When you compare that to Kiel’s 8.72 YPA and a long passing touchdown of 83 yards it is easy to see that the Bearcats lose the big play, explosive element of their offense when Legaux is the quarterback.
Cincinnati has been able to win with Legaux, but not because of Legaux. USF and Tulane put up little resistance in the two games he saw extended playing time as the ‘Cats controlled both contests throughout. Neither the Bulls nor Green Wave has anything close to the offense ECU will bring to Paul Brown Stadium, led by the frontrunner for AAC offensive player of the year in quarterback Shane Carden.
The Bearcats’ defense will finally be challenged again as the Pirates average 549.5 yards and 35.9 points per game, ranking them 4th in total offense and 25th in scoring offense in the country. It was easy for Cincinnati’s D to look improved against SMU, USF and Tulane considering they all rank outside the top 100 in the FBS in total and scoring offense.
This game has all the makings of a shootout, and the Bearcats need Kiel to play and produce big plays down the field to keep up with Carden and the Pirates. If Legaux has to play again then Cincinnati will need to play a ball control style offense and pray that its defense can get stops and force some turnovers, which I would not bet the 28 dollars in my wallet on, let alone my life savings.
Start your rib-healing dances and prayers now Bearcats fans. This is a must-win to keep the AAC title hopes alive.
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