It may seem like a strange question to ask, but what difference does Saturday’s game at Cincinnati make in Houston’s season?
At the beginning of the year this game was seen as one that could have conference championship implications. It certainly could have cemented the Cougars’ position as a team that will be a force moving forward in the AAC.
Now, thanks to a roller coaster season with unpredictable wins and losses, the Coogs are mired in the middle of the conference race, and are linked to the Armed Forces Bowl in every single “expert” projection out there.
Houston is certainly an underdog in this one, so a loss wouldn’t be devastating. Cincinnati is a good football team, but this wouldn’t be a “signature win,” either. The best Houston can do is try to build momentum and play spoiler.
Cincy is playing for a a conference championship; a win assures it a tie at the top of the AAC. So the Coogs have that going for them, which is nice. And there may be a blueprint to succeeding as spoiler.
It starts with running the ball. If you take a look at all three of Cincinnati’s losses this year there is a common theme: it gave up a ton of yards on the ground. 299 yards against Memphis. 335 yards against Miami, including two backs over 100 yards. A whopping 380 yards given up to Ohio State. Even in a win against Toledo early in the season the Bearcats surrendered 240 yards on the ground.
Huh, that’s interesting, the running game just happens to be what Houston has excelled at in the second half of this season. Kenneth Farrow was named to the AAC honor roll this week, one week after being the conference’s Offensive Player of the Week. In three of the last four games, Farrow has gone over 100 yards and has seven touchdowns. He has a conference-best five 100-yard games this season. The Coogs also have a yin to Farrow’s yang in Ryan Jackson, who has also hit over 100 yards twice this season and has been able to gain big chunks of yards when he comes in to spell Farrow.
Throw in Greg Ward, Jr. at quarterback and you have a three-headed threat to keep Cincy’s defense on its heels. This week, head coach Tony Levine said the coaching staff is gaining confidence in Ward, and he is getting the green light to make reads in the running game. Levine said they didn’t call a single designed quarterback keeper against SMU, yet Ward still carried the ball 14 times for 93 yards and three touchdowns.
Another advantage with a successful running game is keeping the Bearcats’ offense off the field. Another trend you can spot in Cincinnati’s losses this season is lack of balance on offense. Gunner Kiel is a good quarterback, but the Bearcats have become too reliant on Kiel’s arm to carry them. UC ran for fewer than 100 yards in each of the losses.
And who loves to go up against a one-dimensional offense? Houston’s Third Ward Defense, which thanks to Mississippi’s inability to force a turnover last week now owns the nation’s longest streak of consecutive games with at least one turnover. Don’t think Adrian McDonald and company wouldn’t lick their chops at the chance to know what Cincy is going to do on offense.
So while there isn’t much to gain or lose for Houston in the big picture, there are plenty of chances to continue to develop its identity as a program heading into bowl season and beyond.
We’ll see what it can accomplish on national television; an 11:00 AM Central kickoff on ESPN.
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