Can Jeff Locke use his new outlook to regain his 2013 form?

Pittsburgh Pirates starter Jeff Locke enters the 2016 season with a new role and a new delivery, but will it be enough to spell a return to the form that made him an All-Star in 2013?

When the Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Jeff Locke from the Atlanta Braves as part of the Nate McLouth trade, Locke was hardly considered a top prospect. However, nearly seven years later, Gorkys Hernandez and Charlie Morton, the other two pieces of the deal, are no longer with the Pirates organization. For three of the past four seasons, Locke was most frequently seen as the shadow to A.J. Burnett, the Robin to Pittsburgh’s Batman.

Now, the sidekick has become the sideshow. The Pirates and the Pittsburgh media are enthralled with the potential of more pitching prospects than the Pirates have innings to use them.

As others have pointed out, the time has indeed come for Locke to prove he is either incapable of being a durable middle-of-the-rotation starter or capable of returning to All-Star form. Many have cited working with Ray Searage and the return to a simplified delivery out of the windup, and perhaps that will contribute to him finding success that has been all too uncharacteristic throughout much of his career.

Locke has never truly managed to be exceptional on a consistent basis. A change in delivery, which was orchestrated by Pirates former Single-A affiliate Lynchburg Hillcats pitching coach Wally Whitehurst in 2009 was supposed to change that. Speaking about what led to the change, Locke said, “I was 21 years old, new pitching coaches, new teammates, new team. Anything that they were going to want to do with me, I was all aboard. I’d had some rough times in Atlanta as of late; I thought maybe a new windup would help me.”

Since Locke was most successful in 2013 prior to the All-Star break, it would only be fair to look back to that time to find what truly made Locke so successful.

In 2013, he posted a 2.15 ERA prior to the All-Star break, and an abysmal 6.12 ERA after. Batters hit just .202 against him prior to the break and .308 after it. Locke relied heavily on his fourseam fastball, and for good reason. The fastball was almost untouchable, but the batting average against gradually rose from .167 in April to .211 in July. Conversely, the results against the sinker improved over the same time from .226 in April to .077 in July.

As a result of the change, Locke relied more on his sinker and less on his fourseam. As evidenced by Locke’s second outing this spring, he’s still trying to find the handle on his changeup, despite being an experienced veteran at this point. The curve has been hit-and-miss at times as evidenced by the up-and-down trend in outcomes, regardless of overall performance.

One of the biggest gripes with Locke has been his inability to remain dominant deep into outings. Whenever he is at the top of his game, he can typically breeze through the order the first time. He can manage to handle adversity well, but beyond the second time through the order, Locke has consistently struggled. He allowed 29 runs the third time through the order in 2015, which was equal to the number he allowed the second time through. That may not seem all that bad, but those results came in 75 fewer plate appearances.

As far as pitch type is concerned, Locke relied heavily on his best pitch in the first half of 2013 the first time through the order, but as he struggled more with the fourseam and less with the sinker, he relied more on the latter in the second half.  In both halves, Locke became a less balanced pitcher, which isn’t surprising since just about every pitcher becomes a one or two pitch pitcher later in an outing.

What is surprising is that he favored the fourseam later in the first half and the curveball in the second half. It wasn’t his worst pitch, but it shows a psychological or coaching break in pattern. He had success with the fourseam, and at the first sign of trouble, he abandons it for another pitch.

How can Locke go from throwing like he did in the video below to a complete wreck that cannot display consistency over the course of an entire season?

Some will blame his success or failure on the new delivery. Some will see it as a change in pitch sequence. Still others will wrongfully place blame or rightfully praise Ray Searage for his role in the outcome of Locke’s season. However, the truth is none of those will be responsible for how this season plays out for the polarizing lefty.

Jeff Locke will be responsible for how his season plays out. It seems painfully obvious, but there’s more to it than that. Locke has to put in the work this spring. He has to not only show the command expected from a number four starter, but he also has to be able to maintain consistency throughout starts and throughout the season. He has to have the psychological resolve to trust his offerings when the going gets tough. He has a team to support him, but the training wheels are off. A.J. Burnett is no longer there to hold his hand, and the Pirates have more than enough prospects on the doorstep of being able to knock an under-performing pitcher out of the rotation.

Ultimately, it will be up to Locke to decide how this season plays out.

Photo Credit: Tom Lynn/Associated Press

Thanks for checking us out here at Pirates Breakdown. Please make sure to follow us on Twitter and Instagram and like us on Facebook for the best Pirates coverage all year long!