Can the Colts be good next year?

I suppose, when analyzing whether or not you think the Colts can be good, you have to first define what “good” is. Will the Colts have a chance to be one of the best teams in the league? Certainly not. Will they get a bye in the AFC playoffs? Also, probably not. But can they finish near the top of the weak AFC South? I believe so.

First, let’s look at how the Colts are improving over last year’s model. They have a real live quarterback. Dan Orlovsky… Dan freaking Orlovsky… proved that the Colts could win games with a QB with some talent (of which Curtis Painter had none, and after a year of starting most of the games for a team, he may not be in the league this season) could win a couple of games. Orlovsky’s first game was against the Patriots, and the team looked competent. Then he won two games, and the entire world recognized what a disaster Painter was. The Colts will have an entirely new roster of QBs this year, starting with Luck and finishing with whomever else they draft or sign. Without ever watching him throw an NFL pass, I can say that he is better than what the team worked with last year.

They also have a new coach, Chuck Pagano, that may bring a little fire to the roster. He is going to change up the defense to a 3-4 formation, and the team is adding big men, like Corey Redding, to play that set. Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney could emerge as talented rush linebackers in this set. If they had been playing this formation for their career, there would be no doubt that the two were built to play the position. They have added a safety in Tom Zbikowski known for his hitting, but they need to fill out the rest of the secondary. Not that they have ever had a complete secondary. What I am trying to say is, with a quarterback who knows how to play football, and a refreshed defense, the team itself is much better.

Now, of course, you have to turn to the rest of the division if you plan to ask whether or not the Colts can be competitive within it. They will be better than the Jaguars, but the bar is low. They have almost immediately approached the Titans, assumingthey are similar to what they were last year. A combination of Luck and Reggie Wayne isn’t likely to be disrupted by the Titans secondary. Jake Locker also will be better contained by a 3-4. The Colts run D will probably be unable to stop Chris Johnson, but that’s the way it’s been every year since he joined the league.

The Texans are the biggest question mark. Mostly “What are they doing?”. They need help at WR for Andre Johnson and whoever is playing quarterback that day, either Matt Schaub or TJ Yates. They also lost Mario Williams and traded DeMeco Ryans for pennies on the dollar. Houston was unable to run away with the division, thanks in part to a collapse down the stretch, and injuries to many key players. That said, they haven’t helped themselves this offseason, and are likely going to make the short fall back to the pack.

On top of all this, keep in mind that the Colts get an easier, last place schedule this year. So if the question is, can the Colts be good enough to compete for the playoffs next year? The answer, undeniably, is yes.