Can the Redskins win with an “average” offense? Part I: QB Robert Griffin III

Fun with numbers!

Football pundits expect the Redskins to return to average this season. That got Hog Heaven to wonder how well the Redskins would be if their 2014 offensive skill players performed at their career average. As always, lets start with the quarterback.

QB: Robert Griffin III Career Passing

QB: Robert Griffin III Career Rushing

RG averaged 266 pass completions on 450 attempts with 18 touchdowns and 9 interceptions per season in his short career. You cannot consider Griffin without considering his ground game. His per season rushing average is 103 attempts for 652 yards and 4 touchdowns. (We rounded up.)

Fantasy football loves a running quarterback. A story on ESPN.com Insider said that NFL front office types are less than impressed by Griffin running. If Jay Gruden and Washington’s coaching staff are not in that camp, I will eat my No. 10 jersey.

We don’t know what Gruden has up his sleeves for RG, but he surely would like to see Griffin convert his rushing yards to passing yards and all that goes with it.

Not like Michael Vick? Oh yes he is.

Michael Vick and Donovan McNabb come to mind. Vick is the player RG said he did not want to emulate in his play style. Griffin plays more like Vick than like McNabb.

Vick never rushed fewer than 102 attempts in any year while with Atlanta when he started at least 15 games. His best year on the ground was the 2006 season when he gained 1,039 yards on 123 attempts for 2 touchdowns. The Falcons finished 7-9 that year.

McNabb rushed 82 times for 482 yards and two scores in his third season with the Eagles (2001). Philly finished the regular season 11-5. RG declined McNabb’s offer to consult with him and RGII. Perhaps it is time to take McNabb up on that offer to figure out how 11 wins happen.

Say that Gruden and Sean McVey get Griffin to rush for 80 attempts max this season and that RG holds his Y/A average. That would lead to a McNabb-like 504 rushing yards to finish as the Redskins’ second-leading ground gainer.

We would want the extra 23 rushing attempts to become pass attempts with Griff’s 63 percent completion rate and 7.5 yards per attempt average. That converts to an added 172 yards to his passing yards on 14 more completions. (Meh)

Projecting to his average with those changes, Griffin could gain 3,877 yards total offense, with 20 touchdowns against 8 interceptions. His passer rating would be 93.9.

That performance would have put RGIII in the range Colin Kaepernick’s and Jay Cutler’s 2013 performance for scoring. He would have been between Ben Roethlisberger and Tony Romo for passer rating.

That is not good enough! Big Ben and Romo led their teams to 8-win seasons. Eight wins would be a nice recovery from the disaster that was 2013. The Redskins have to contend for the division to silence the critics. That means nine or 10 wins.

Griffin is the straw that stirs the drink. The ‘Skins are not talented enough to contend if Griffin delivers an average performance. The offense has to outscore every team they play because, well … the defense. To be a contender, RG’s total offense must be 4,500 yards.

Peyton Manning threw 55 TD passes last season. RG has to throw, Throw, at least 30.

Games are not won on paper. They are won on television.

Monday: Winning with an “average” rushing and receiving performance.